Pedro Sánchez and Nadia Calviño, on Wednesday in Congress.Claudio Alvarez
For four months, Pedro Sánchez and his hard core have focused almost exclusively on carrying out the most complicated investiture since democracy was restored to Spain. The president managed to extend his mandate for another four years through a complex agreement with seven other parties in addition to the PSOE (Sumar, ERC, Junts, Bildu, PNV, BNG and CC), which remained in limbo until the end and which brought together all the energies of the President, his closest team in La Moncloa and his main negotiators Félix Bolaños, Santos Cerdán and María Jesús Montero. For this reason, and although many thought that the new government would be completely closed once the investiture was voted on, Pedro Sánchez has decided to take a little more time over the weekend to put some things in order and on Monday his new one to introduce executive power.
Sources from La Moncloa indicate that it will be a “political” and strong government to face a very difficult legislative period. However, they insist that despite the complexity of the new majority, in which the PSOE needs practically all the factions in every vote – since the opposition has 171 seats, almost 20 more than in the previous legislative period – they do not believe in the next four Years will be more difficult than the previous ones. We must not forget that right from the start, Sánchez faced a pandemic that locked citizens at home for three months and caused a colossal economic collapse that is unlikely to be repeated. On the contrary: this time the economic forecasts are good, at least for the time being.
It is taken for granted that there is a lot of politics to be done in this legislative period, with a territorial agenda that will be crucial, with up to five different negotiating tables agreed with ERC, Junts and PNV to talk about transfers and infrastructures; but also the political fit between Catalonia and the Basque Country, the possibility of legal reforms and the “interpretation of the constitution in line with the current zeitgeist,” as Sánchez said at the investiture.
As always, Sánchez is managing the composition of his new government in complete secrecy and with absolute freedom. The leader of the PSOE does not have to balance between his regional barons, as is usual at other times, both in the Socialists and in the PP, because he has much more power than other general secretaries and can therefore design the government he wants. It is common for there to be ministers from multiple territories and the PSC, for example, has particular strength. And all the more so after the extraordinary result achieved by the Socialists in Catalonia, an important place for Sánchez to continue in La Moncloa, but the leader has a free hand.
The PSC wants to maintain its quota of two ministers – it now has Miquel Iceta, who will leave Culture because it will be for Sumar, and Raquel Sánchez (Transport) –. Two names that are being discussed are Núria Parlon, mayor of Santa Coloma de Gramenet (Barcelona), who resigned from the federal executive board of the PSOE following the application of Article 155 of the Constitution in Catalonia in 2017, and Núria Marín, mayor of L ‘Hospitalet de Llobregat. Already during the last reshuffle, Sánchez was looking for profiles that could serve as replacements for the regional leadership, where there is already a generation of experienced barons who in many cases also lost power in the last regional elections. This trend should be consolidated in this new government.
But the most important decisions are always those that affect the heart of the executive branch, that is, the hard core of the president and the so-called “state ministries” that Unidas Podemos has never claimed and does not claim now and that Sumar will always have in its hands of the PSOE: Economy, Finance Ministry, Foreign Policy, Justice, Home Affairs and Defense. And hardly any changes are expected there, although there could be surprises. The big news will be announced in the economy, but it looks like it won’t be this Monday but later. Various sources agree that Nadia Calviño will most likely continue as economic vice president, but only for a very short time. The European Investment Bank (EIB) presidency is due to vote on December 8 and has a good chance of achieving it after Chancellor Olaf Scholz Pedro Sánchez assured the Spanish candidate of his country’s support. If he wins, Calviño will have to give up the post of economic vice president and Sánchez will have to carry out a new restructuring, which, according to various sources, he has already planned, but which has not yet been made public.
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A key question for a government as presidential as Sánchez’s, with power concentrated in La Moncloa, is whether Félix Bolaños will finally move to the Justice Ministry. Bolaños, current minister of the presidency and chief presidential negotiator, is the man through whom almost everything runs, from the agenda of the Council of Ministers to all legislative negotiations with the groups. The change would make sense since Bolaños is a lawyer and main architect of the amnesty law, but above all has a very prominent political weight and has been a person of absolute trust of the leader for years. His profile is ideal for tackling a central legislative issue: justice, the application of the amnesty law and the tensions it creates in key conservative judicial areas.
However, Bolaños are also fundamental in La Moncloa, so it is not certain that this movement will consolidate. He was promoted following the departures of Carmen Calvo and Iván Redondo in July 2021, when Óscar López also took over as the new chief of staff. Since then, La Moncloa has functioned in a much more compact way, without making public internal discrepancies between sectors, and also better coordinated with the PSOE, which at the time had strong tensions with the president’s team, led by a man outside the party Redondo. For this reason, no major changes are currently expected in the hard core as in 2021, although some heads of state and government had counted on López as a minister.
In all other state ministries there is no atmosphere of much change, although the PSOE boss is a specialist in surprises. The only doubt is whether María Jesús Montero, Finance Minister, who is also the PSOE’s number two, would move up the ranks with a vice-presidency and keep the ministry. Everything indicates that Margarita Robles and Fernando Grande-Marlaska will also continue unchanged. During the last legislative session, the defense minister was one of the most valued members of Sánchez’s cabinet, leading the army during the pandemic and crises such as wildfires and floods. His transversal image arouses sympathy among moderate voters, in a context marked by the war in Ukraine. This makes her one of the few members of the government who was spared criticism from the right.
The same thing happens with the Interior Minister, whom Sánchez, like Robles, has supported since 2018, even though he is one of the opposition’s targets. “With Fernando Grande-Marlaska we have an exceptional Interior Minister,” the president defended him in the investiture debate. The sources interviewed believe that replacing him now, amid anti-amnesty protests, would send a bad signal. Luis Planas, agriculture minister, is also considered one of the strongest ministers in the executive branch, having weathered several rural crises due to drought and inflation.
The PSOE will almost certainly regain the equality that was led in the previous cabinet by Irene Montero, who was not on Sumar’s lists and will not be in the executive branch either after the internal tensions due to the “Only Yes means Yes” law. Several names are mentioned there, but they are all speculation. In addition, there is a view in the PSOE that some former regional presidents of those affected by the 28-M electoral disaster could be appointed ministers. The two who have the most options are Guillermo Fernández Vara from Extremadura, who sounds like he is in charge of territorial politics, the issue he leads in the PSOE, and Ximo Puig from Valencia. However, Sánchez must also look for other balances and include women, a priority for the president. In any case, given Sánchez’s opacity in decisions of this kind, it is possible that all speculation fails and there are important surprises.
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