Presidential candidate Sandra Torres, the former first lady who transitioned from social democracy to conservatism, cites voting intention in the poll published this Thursday by the Prensa Libre newspaper, three days before the elections, that will determine whether Guatemala is on track to authoritarianism remains that was established during the government of President Alejandro Giammattei.
Torres, who is running for the National Unity of Hope (UNE) party, leads the poll with 21.3% of voters, followed by centre-right Cabal candidate Edmond Mulet, diplomat, nearly eight points behind . with 13.4% of preferences. Zury Ríos, daughter of dictator accused of genocide Efraín Ríos Montt and favorite candidate of the conservative right of the Valor-Uniónista coalition, is in third place with 9.1% of the vote, not much different from the figures of the previous poll.
According to the results of the national poll, Torres and Mulet have a high probability of competing for the presidency in a second round – which would take place on August 20 if no candidate receives an absolute majority, 50% of the vote plus one. although the difference that Ríos has is not that big. Since Guatemala’s transition to democracy in 1985, no candidate has achieved an absolute majority of valid votes, so the presidency has always been determined by a second vote.
Presidential candidate Edmond Mulet during a public appearance June 21 in Guatemala City. Esteban Biba (EFE)
This is the third attempt by Sandra Torres, who was first lady of the late President Álvaro Colom between 2008 and 2012, to achieve the Guatemalan presidency. On previous occasions, Torres has tasted the bitter taste of defeat in the second round. He lost to comedian Jimmy Morales in 2015 and to Alejandro Giammattei in 2019. The polls suggest that the UNE party candidate is the strongest opponent of the electorate, but also that she retains the loyalty of a broad segment of the population, particularly those in rural areas who have benefited from the social programs she promoted, for example during the presidency of Colom.
In her role as First Lady, Torres showed sympathy for Social Democracy, as did her husband, whom she divorced in order to run as a candidate. When asked about his ideological identity in a recent interview, Torres downplayed his phrases and ended by saying, “My ideology is Guatemala.”
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The frontrunner served four months in jail in 2019 and was charged with illegal association and unreported $800,000 in campaign finance during the 2015 election campaign. In January 2022, a court closed criminal proceedings promoted during the tenure of the defunct International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG).
Justice in the service of politics
The survey data comes in an environment of apathy, ignorance about the 22 presidential candidates and questions about the differentiated and discretionary application of criteria for approving candidatures and the judicialization of the decisions that correspond to the electoral authority. “The current process is characterized by a permanent tension between legality and legitimacy, as the law is used for political purposes, such as preventing certain candidatures from giving way to others,” says a report by the Socio-Humanist Sciences Research Institute (ICESH ). . ) from Rafael Landívar University.
Conservative presidential candidate Zury Ríos Sosa during a campaign rally June 17, 2023 in San Miguel Dueñas. Esteban Biba (EFE)
Among the excluded candidatures, that of the provincial entrepreneur Carlos Pineda stands out, running for the presidency for the first time and taking himself to the top of the polls thanks to the fact that he managed to engage with the TikTok audience. At the beginning of May, Pineda had 23.1% of the valid votes, putting it in first place.
The leader of the Movement for the Liberation of Peoples, Thelma Cabrera, who came fourth in the 2019 presidential election, will not run in those elections after being expelled, nor will Roberto Arzú, the son of former conservative President Álvaro Arzú, come in in previous ones vote for fifth place.
The circumstances under which the three presidential candidates were barred from the elections reinforce the analysis of key figures in the political situation in Guatemala, such as former Foreign Minister Edgar Gutiérrez, who claims that all judicial and political control bodies respond to the interests of President Alejandro Giammattei and the former director of the government center, Miguel Martínez.
In this sense, the judicial and administrative decisions to exclude certain candidates were interpreted as measures favoring the candidatures of the official party and its allies such as Zury Ríos and the pro-government Manuel Conde. However, voter preference for both has remained unchanged, according to the Prensa Libre poll.
Representatives of the UNE party, led by Torres, have backed several of the initiatives promoted in Congress by the Giammattei government, known as the pro-government alliance. “The only alliance is with the people,” replied the candidate, who tops the polls and is about to have a third chance to run for Guatemala’s presidency.
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