The conversation takes place on one of SpaceX’s American rocket launch platforms, owned by billionaire Elon Musk.
“I congratulated him [al fundador de Tesla] for his ambition to reach Mars, something he almost achieved,” recalls an executive at a Spanish satellite company who requested anonymity.
—What did he answer?
– You didn’t understand anything! “Getting to Mars is not a complex matter, the mission of this company is colonization,” he blurted out.
“Their purpose is to colonize the entire planet and exploit its natural resources,” the manager admits.
This conversation shows the character of the Silicon Valley oligarch. Although he is “unintelligible,” he is not bluffing. Tesla, X (formerly Twitter) and SpaceX are well-known giants. Many analysts argue that Musk is repeating the same monopolistic strategy of big tech companies. Someone with a fortune of $202 billion counts his money with the same disinterest as a star child. Although he leaves clues as to what he’s up to. “Of the three companies, I may have more real-time global economic data in my head than anyone else,” he tweeted in April.
He wants to convert the information into his ticket to hear the siren song of distant Mars. Meanwhile, industry and competition take off from Earth. According to Morgan Stanley, communications satellites generate around $70 billion (€65 billion) per year and observation satellites generate almost $10 billion (€9.4 billion). Numbers that will soon be so decimated that no one will remember them anymore. The consulting firm Research and Markets expects 24.2 billion in 2030. Very short for Euroconsult’s calculations, which put it at 123,000 million dollars (115,000 million euros) in 2032 in the field of communications alone. On the other hand, Bank of America looks to a higher and more protective sky: it estimates that the Revenue from the space economy will reach 1.4 trillion in 2030. In fact, Matthew Weinzierl, an economist at Harvard Business School, estimates that 95% of the space economy’s revenue will come from satellites. Especially from low orbits. “If geopolitical tensions do not spiral out of control, there is enough scope to benefit everyone,” he reflects.
But today’s space has nothing to do with the space that President Kennedy conquered in the 1960s with the Apollo program. Now follows the sentence of the science fiction author Robert Heinlein (1948-1988). “Once you reach Earth’s orbit, you’re halfway there.” Think of space as overlapping layers. The low Earth orbit, called LEO (Low Earth Orbit), is between 500 and 1,000 kilometers from Earth. This is where the great economic struggle is taking place. There are also intermediate orbits (MEO), which are between 2,000 and 36,000 kilometers, and from there the geostationary orbit. It is used by Spanish operators such as Hispasat and Hisdesat – satellites have the advantage of orbiting at the same speed as the Earth rotates, and the coverage of the planet is greater. The nearby areas are unregulated land and no one knows how much is farmable. Some compare it to the Wild West. Others, like Miguel Ángel Panduro, CEO of Hispasat, remember the oceans of the 15th century. “There are no rules, no laws and there are pirates.” “Every month we have to correct the orbit of our Paz satellite, either you move away or…” Very Low Earth Orbits (Very LEO, in English) are less than 300 kilometers and are, by the way, used by Busier day by day.
The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lifts off from Launch Pad 40 at the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station on February 27, 2023 in Cape Canaveral, Florida. Joe Raedle (GETTY IMAGES)
Elon Musk lives in low Earth orbit. His company SpaceX has found a way to build reusable heavy rockets. Get the cargo into orbit and they’ll return safely. In 2019, it began deploying smaller communications satellites. They weigh about 260 kilos. They resemble a flattened car with a large window that reflects sunlight. The New York Times calls them “flying sofas” because of their size. Satellites communicate with terminals on Earth and can transmit high-speed Internet almost around the globe. They offer a phone system called Starlink. Elon Musk controls half – about 1,300 – of the existing 2,600. However, he wants to reach 42,000. It offers connections (100 megabits per second download) to 60 countries.
flying sofas
No doubt the tech oligarch dreams of a sky full of constellations of flying sofas. “The big change is that they manage the entire chain: they make the rockets, they design the satellites [entre 150 y 300 al mes]“You run them, build the applications and sell them directly to the user,” summarizes Panduro. “And also with a different price in each country. It is the strategy of brute force. They have enormous resources and can even lose money until the rest of the companies can’t take it anymore.” Because it is a private company, few know how much Musk gains or loses by launching one of his Falcon 9s. In theory, Starlink has 1,500,000 subscribers (airlines, cruise lines, and telecommunications companies are in droves) and several experts estimate that the company subsidizes the cost of each internet terminal by $700.
Elon Musk would prefer to be alone in this low orbit. Of course he controls her. But there is competition. Telesat Lightspeed, AST SpaceMobile, OneWeb, IRIS2 (European initiative) and especially Amazon’s Kuiper are looking for his track record. In any case, space seems to have become the playground of technology billionaires. It seems only Jeff Bezos can get Musk out of the cloud. “Amazon has enormous potential. And in the end, the big competition lies with the two magnates,” notes Stephane Terranova, CEO of Thales Alenia Space Spain. Bezos plans to provide Wi-Fi coverage via 3,236 satellites in low orbit. This number – according to the company – gives them the opportunity to “fly the constellation”. [red] safer with the fewest number of satellites.” They haven’t sent any yet. “Although we have secured 77 heavy lift launches thanks to Arianespace, ULA (United Launch Alliance) and Blue Origin [propiedad de Bezos]”, tell sources from the giant. And he admits: “Overall, it represents the largest purchase of launch vehicles in history.” The schedule is to start manufacturing the satellites at the end of 2023 and to begin the first tests in 2024. The devices will last for several years and will respect the uniqueness of each country. China does not like open and unregulated Internet access.
Elon Musk, director of the space company SpaceX, at the Axel Springer Awards ceremony in December 2020 in Berlin. Britta Pedersen (dpa/Age Photo
In this space race in LEO orbit, money may be the last thing that will be decided. “The goal shouldn’t be to find Planet-B, as Elon Musk once said. “It’s about focusing all our attention on our lives on Earth, and space is a place for new ideas,” says Sophie Hackford, a researcher at the University of Oxford and co-founder of 1715 Labs, an intelligence company, in The Economist. artificially. Sounds good. But reality shows a company that is out of this world. Especially when it is controlled by an unpredictable and incomprehensible billionaire. The reading is the opposite of that of the expert. “The satellite sector is a highly strategic market and many countries are starting a new space race,” observes Rolando Grandi, manager of the Echiquier Space fund. “Being out there using these tools allows a nation to have a robust communications system that is protected from attacks on Earth.” The lesson learned: There are no laws, it’s the jungle, the Wild West; They are pirates on rough seas in the 15th century.
These low skies with passing clouds belong to the United States. For every Chinese satellite in orbit in May 2022, there were seven American ones. Classical physics. Every action is followed by a reaction. China is known to have satellites with anti-satellite capabilities, and Russia has tested missiles against its own missiles. The Asian giant has launched a bird with a robotic arm capable of capturing other satellites and planting explosives in enemy engines. The explosive detonates over time and simulates engine damage. Even if the detonation is deaf, it is a war. Last year, the European Union provided 2.4 billion euros to build a satellite constellation for civil and military purposes. For defense purposes, Hispasat will launch two geostationary devices in a few years. And the sentence can be read in two senses. The world’s geopolitics have changed the use of satellites. “India now has a multi-alignment strategy. Topic by topic. For example, it does not cooperate with Russia on space matters,” describes Raquel Jorge, researcher at the Elcano Royal Institute. Perhaps for this reason, the resulting colossus managed to land on the far side of the moon, and Russia crashed the rocket on its surface.
Just as satellites rotate, this story returns to the problem, and Elon Musk comes back to the problem. Almost every week, a SpaceX launch vehicle loaded with Starlink satellites (the startup is worth an estimated $140 billion) launches from Florida or California. Each bird is designed to live for three and a half years. There are so many in orbit that they are sometimes confused with the tears of St. Lawrence. This affects astronomical research. In 2020 an attempt was made to cover them with dark paint, but the improvement was minimal. There are no regulations or laws protecting the aesthetics of the sky.
capricious use
However, Musk’s problem is even bigger. Starlink is often the only way to access the internet in remote areas or during natural disasters. It is used by the Ukrainian army in the war against Russia. This 52-year-old billionaire with confused loyalties has – in the middle of the conflict – disabled access to some terminals in Ukraine. He also opposed the use of naval drones to attack Russian ships docked in the Black Sea. Their reasons range from avoiding an escalation of confrontation to preventing a third world war. Last year, he publicly proposed a “peace plan” for the invasion that was consistent with Russian interests. Alarmed, the Pentagon had to purchase 500 terminals and services in June so that Ukraine would not be left in the dark. “It has certainly been a long time since we have seen a company and an individual like this openly violating U.S. foreign policy in the midst of war,” noted researcher Gregory C. Allen in the New York Times. Senior in Strategic Technologies Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Think Tank.
Because Musk and his constant Armageddon rhetoric fuel distrust. Taiwan bans its satellites due to ties to China. The tycoon claimed in a journalistic interview that one way to appease the country would be to give it some of its sovereignty. These words had something to do with the fact that half of their new Teslas are produced in Shanghai. And Turkey in February rejected the billionaire’s offer to provide access to Starlink after a major earthquake. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan erased any hint of criticism online: “Humanity as a whole must actively strive for the growth of competitive services by nations that defend the values of neutrality against censorship.” If we don’t do that, these platforms will tools of foreign influence and intelligence gathering,” warns Troy McCann, founder of the Australian space incubator Moonshot. We have to choose. Either we have Starlink or a liberal democracy. We have to choose. Either we have Kuiper or a liberal democracy. “Because if they manage to monopolize the use of space, we will be completely in their hands,” warns the head of Hispasat. We went there.
The weight flies
As with solar modules, area prices are falling. The cost of commercial launches to the International Space Station is already four times cheaper, according to NASA. The equivalent value for low Earth orbit is 20. Space shuttles have increased from $54,000 per kilo to $2,720. A little? Wait for Elon Musk to disrupt SpaceX. For Falcon 9 (2010) and Falcon Heavy (2018), the price was reduced to $1,140 per kilo. The cosmos seems ever closer.
In addition, the military industry devours Saturn data. The company Spire Global, which controls more than 100 constellations, particularly nanosatellites designed to monitor the planet in near real time and decay naturally, “has seen a sharp increase” – says Joel Spark, head of satellite architecture – “in purchases of commercial satellites “Government satellite data for defense applications.” The newly created U.S. Space Force has a budget of $24 billion, down from $5 billion in 2019, when Trump inaugurated it. “There is a trend towards the militarization of space, which shows its strategic relevance,” warns Stephan Klecha, founding partner of the investment bank Klecha & Co. At a meeting with journalists in May at the US Embassy in London, the Biden administration said goodbye in the Guardian it states clearly: “The United States is ready to fight in space tonight if necessary.” For Rod Drury, international vice president of Lockheed Martin Space, “the greatest weapon in the war of the future will be information, and satellites “The speed at which information is collected, disseminated and analyzed, and the speed at which important decisions can be made from it, will be crucial to winning battles. Space has always been the essential place for the collection and dissemination of information on a global scale, even in the most remote and conflict-ridden areas.”
Despite concerns, the relationship between Musk and the government runs deep. Last December, SpaceX received permission from the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to deploy 7,500 second-generation low-orbit satellites. Flat satellites – they are loaded onto the launch vehicle one on top of the other – enable 250 satellites to be sent at the same time.
Where would European sovereignty be if you looked through a telescope? Hidden between strange constellations? “Space has become a highly contentious area and the EU must protect its vital interests,” said Internal Market and Services Commissioner Thierry Breton. “Europe should not be dependent on the United States.” The old continent had better take off quickly. Elon Musk has already launched Starshield. Provides greater security for classified information and sensitive data processing. Even China complained to the United Nations this year that SpaceX was putting so many satellites into orbit that it was denying others (them) access to space.
The European answer is the IRIS2 constellation (Airbus, Thales, SES, Hispasat and Hisdesat), which is expected to be operational in 2027. How many thousand satellites will Bezos, Musk or China have in space this year? The Old Continent remembers the White Rabbit from Alice in Wonderland as he looks at his pocket watch and exclaims, “Oh God! Oh dear God! I’ll be late!”.
Nobody can deny the Spanish commitment in this race. The future Startical constellation (Indra and Naire) is a project of 200 satellites aimed at aviation ATM (Air Traffic Management) applications and PLD Space (Elche) aims to revolutionize the rocket sector by launching satellites weighing up to 450 kilograms into space. Will we arrive on time? The success (costing 300 million euros) of the Amazon Nexus (including Hispasat, Thales Alenia Space Spain, Sener and GMW), which is “closing the digital divide in Spain” – said Nadia Calviño, Acting Vice President of the Government – has much to offer the White Rabbit Thanks to. “The key was time: we launched it two years before others; at the right time,” admits Panduro.
Has the time struck in Spain? Because many people don’t want space to represent humanity’s final frontier, but rather a new wall. There are already too many on earth. There is also a strong sense of wealth protection. “Defense, security, aerospace technology companies employ more than 200,000 people,” estimates Domingo Castro, director of integrated defense and space systems at Indra. “These are high-quality, highly specialized and stable positions.” In addition, 70% of sales go abroad. The Spanish company also participates in Copernicus with its disaster risk reduction and natural disaster services. We should remember that when space was born, time did not exist.
“Shall we talk at 8:30 in the morning? “When you are an entrepreneur, there are no timelines.” Daniel Pérez is a doctor in plasma physics and nuclear fusion and CEO of Ienai Space. The Madrid start-up is developing electric motors so that satellites can correct their orbits and avoid collisions with each other. A bird launched on a Falcon 9 is placed in an orbit 290 kilometers above Earth and uses ion engines to reach the altitude (between 340 and 550 kilometers) at which it can operate. It’s time again. This white rabbit. “The first one to arrive occupies the path,” admits the entrepreneur. “Currently we are working with half of the market that Starlink does not control,” he emphasizes.
A danger and a quantum risk
The explosion, recorded by its own satellites in 2021, covered its orbit with more than 1,500 fragments that could be monitored on American computers. “If you create this cloud of debris and it stays in orbit for decades, it’s almost like detonating a nuclear weapon in your backyard,” said Jesse Morehouse, brigadier general and head of the US Space Command, in a statement reported by the Guardian military branch , responsible for space operations. “You also pay the price.” In the worst case, these collisions can render Earth orbit unusable. Astronomers call it Kessler syndrome (each collision would create even more space debris, which in turn would cause even more crashes, etc.) and it was made famous by director Alfonso Cuarón’s film Gravity (2013).
But what is not projected in a cinema, but in reality, are the 100 billion pieces of ancient satellites that rotate uncontrollably up there. According to Science magazine, the industry’s estimated growth could render large swathes of Earth’s orbit unusable and those who launch satellites must be held accountable for the waste they produce. Scientists at MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) are working on a satellite control system – says Daniel Pérez, CEO of Ienai Space, a company that makes electric engines – that is similar to the slot (route) mechanism of air traffic. They could facilitate the orbits of a million devices. Another thing is geopolitics and which countries would allow their birds to be identified. Until now, progress in space has only worked through collaboration. Now the verb has been replaced by confrontation. And space regulations – established by the United Nations in 1967 – suffer from the usual problem: They are not binding, like so many other treaties.
Scientists warn that all this trash can pollute space just as humans have polluted the seas and oceans. “We are very concerned,” admits Richard Thompson, professor of marine biology at the University of Plymouth (UK). And he warns: “We are now polluting Earth’s orbit with the same disinterest in its consequences that has caused widespread pollution of the oceans.” This year, NASA announced a $20 million competition for emerging companies, that offer solutions to the swarm of rubble.
Another future threat is the immense power of quantum computers, which can easily figure out the cryptographic keys of an account or credit card. In 2026, Hispasat will launch a geostationary satellite (36,000 kilometers from Earth) designed to distribute quantum keys to close this cybersecurity gap. China has already conducted some successful experiments. Space, more than the final frontier, seems to be the new threat.
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