JERUSALEM – Saudi Arabia’s surprise agreement to resume diplomatic relations with Iran comes as a major blow to the most important goal of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s foreign policy: the creation of a regional alliance based on Iran’s isolation.
Mr. Netanyahu has long led the charge to garner international support for isolating Iran and halting its efforts to acquire nuclear weapons. Israel sees Iran as its main global enemy as it supports proxy militias across the Middle East targeting Israel, such as Lebanon-based Hezbollah and Gaza-based Hamas, both of which the US classifies as terrorist organizations
As part of efforts to counter Iran, Mr Netanyahu has made normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia a key objective, hoping to create a security-based alliance of Sunni Arab countries and Israel. A normalization with Saudi Arabia – home to Islam’s two holiest sites – could also pave the way for further peace deals with other Muslim countries.
Mr. Netanyahu’s main goals are to isolate Iran and develop relations with Arab countries. And right now he has failed at both,” said Aviv Bushinsky, a former chief of staff to Mr Netanyahu.
A spokesman for Mr Netanyahu declined to comment.
Israeli news outlets reported that a senior official who was traveling with Mr Netanyahu on a trip to Rome on Friday blamed the previous Israeli government and the Biden administration for the deal.
“There was a sense of American and Israeli weakness, so Saudi Arabia turned to other channels,” the official said, according to Israeli news outlets.
Israel’s regional enemies welcomed the Riyadh-Tehran deal. The Palestinian militant group Hamas called it “an important step in uniting the ranks of the Islamic people.”
“This is a positive development,” said Hassan Nasrallah, who heads Hezbollah. “It is in the interest of all peoples of the region.”
On Friday, Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to resume diplomatic ties in a China-brokered deal aimed at ending seven years of estrangement and challenging historic geopolitical alignments in the Middle East. The deal shows that Middle East diplomacy is no longer dominated solely by the US, Israel’s largest and most important ally.
That Washington’s main competitor China brokered the deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran should worry Israel, said Yoel Guzansky, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.
“The less leverage the US has in the region, the worse it is for Israel,” Mr Guzansky said.
Israelis demonstrate against government plans to overhaul the judiciary.
Photo: Amir Levy/Getty Images
The deal also underscores how multiple domestic crises – including a plan to overhaul the country’s judiciary and rising violence in Israel and the occupied West Bank – have set back Mr Netanyahu’s ability to advance his foreign policy goals. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis have been protesting Mr Netanyahu’s government plans to overhaul the judiciary for 10 weeks.
Rising violence between Israel and the Palestinians — a cause the Arab world has long championed — is also an aggravating factor in Mr Netanyahu’s quest for closer ties with Riyadh. At least 80 Palestinians and 14 Israelis have been killed since early 2023. Observers fear tensions could rise during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which has sparked broader escalations in recent years.
Political analysts and some Israeli politicians say the government has focused on the domestic situation to the detriment of the regional checkerboard.
“The world doesn’t stop while we engage in power struggles and headbutts, which are certainly not the worst of our enemies,” Yuli Juwel, a senior member of Netanyahu’s Likud party, said after the deal was announced on Friday.
Many think Israel could still work with the Gulf States by cooperating on intelligence or air defense. Resuming diplomatic ties is unlikely to immediately ease longstanding security and sectarian tensions that have divided Riyadh and Tehran for decades and fueled their competition for regional dominance, analysts said.
Political analysts say the deal is a sign that Arab countries like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia will not welcome open aggression against Iran and may even hesitate to quietly engage in conflict with Iran.
Some collaborations might now be out of the question. For example, if Israel were to attack an Iranian nuclear facility – as many suspect it might one day suspect – it would need permission to use Saudi airspace, a far less likely scenario now that it has resumed diplomatic ties with Iran.
“Would the Saudis be willing to even quietly join a coalition against Iran? Would they be willing to open their skies?” said Mark Dubowitz, executive director of the Washington, DC-based Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, a think tank. “I think all of that is being called into question now.”
Still, the US remains the dominant player in the region and the Saudis are taking a risk by undermining their alliance with the Americans, say some political analysts.
President Biden during a meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman last year in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
Photo: Evan Vucci/Associated Press
In exchange for normalization with Israel, Saudi Arabia is asking the US for security guarantees and help developing its civilian nuclear program, people involved in talks between the two countries told The Wall Street Journal.
Dan Shapiro, director of the N7 initiative at the Atlantic Council, an attempt to expand normalization efforts between Israel and the Arab world, said the China-brokered deal could make it significantly more difficult for Saudi Arabia to secure significant concessions from the US
“This deal will require some balance from the Saudis if they are serious about making that step forward,” Mr Shapiro said of normalization with Israel. “I find [Crown Prince
Mohammed Bin Salman
] tries to play all fields here and that can backfire.”
– Dov Lieber contributed to this article.
Write to Shayndi Raice at [email protected]
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