A Marshall Plan for Energy, starting with Gas: The announcement that the United States will supply Europe raises hopes and brings back memories of World War II, when the United States, the world’s largest oil producer, supplied England and blackmailed a deal with Ibn Saudis Arabia (Oil vs. Guns) which still exists. Joe Biden said in Brussels that Washington will deliver 15 billion cubic meters by the end of the year, to reach 50 billion by 2030. The intention is good, the political signal clear and strong, the crowd still modest. Italy alone consumes 70 billion cubic meters per year, 43% of which is imported from Russia. In short, he takes about twice as much from Gazprom as the Americans will send.
It’s not about belittling the energy transition, but to deal with the crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, European countries, especially Italy and Germany, will have to rely on their own strength. All the more so when in a few months the embargo for oil comes from Moscow and then, albeit gradually, also for methane.
The European Council on Thursday and Friday ended as usual with a glass half full or half empty, depending on your point of view. Mario Draghi has pushed hard for three outcomes: joint purchases and stockpiling, a price cap and a recalculation of electricity bills so gas no longer dominates. As for the first aspect, there are commitments that can be considered serious and the Italian Prime Minister is satisfied. A crack appeared on the roof that bordered on open crisis when Pedro Sanchez threatened to veto. The Spanish PM, backed by Portugal and Italy, pushed hard for the limit of increases. The EU Commission has promised to present a number of options by May to examine whether and how a cap can be introduced. Madrid and Lisbon stood their ground and got a national exemption, which means they can continue on their own. What will the Italian government do? The dossier for calculating the price of electricity is also open, but it is not at all clear when, how and if it will be closed. In short, the glass is half empty for Draghi and this confronts him with the need to launch as soon as possible a robust and bold energy plan that does not exclude austerity measures.
The government has already made it clear, and Minister Roberto Cingolani is in a way preparing public opinion when he says that it will take three years for us to get rid of Russian gas and that we will no longer abandon the use of nuclear energy can, he questions this environmentalists and Grillini, on the altar of realism and sincerity. But the messages are not enough, let alone the announcements or the televised debates, it is necessary to put down on paper the priorities and the means to achieve them. The government is orienting itself towards a kind of gas rationing in the coming winter, “if and when it is necessary”. Making alarmism is counterproductive, we don’t know how long the war will last or how it will end and that is the fundamental variable. However, it is time to define the if and when. Draghi and Cingolani announced the use of alternative sources and supplies: liquefied gas from Qatar and the United States, regasification at sea, increased flow of gas pipelines with Algeria, Libya, the North Sea and the Caspian Sea through the Tap. However, these are still commitments that need to be implemented and quantified.
Attention, at the moment the gas continues to come from Siberia and if Vladimir Putin wants us to pay for it in rubles, there will be no obstacles to the inflow. Perhaps the cost will change, but there are no rubles, so Eni will continue to pay in dollars, no longer to Gazprom, but to the central bank, which will convert them into local currency, which will pay them to Gazprom. Paradoxically, the biggest problems will be for the Russian company, which will be deprived of hard currency for politicomilitary reasons. But if the faucets are turned off, either by Putin or the EU, it’s clear there will be trouble. We’re not ready, that’s obvious. That is why a precise plan must be put in place, which will be discussed in Parliament and in the country, without fear of colliding with the wall of no. On the roof, Draghi wants to await the European decisions, but the pressure will increase to enforce the Iberian exception in Italy too.
Everyone needs to take a reality bath. There is a crisis, the invasion of Ukraine has fueled the inflationary fire and subdued growth. Forecasts are completely risky at this point, the OECD assumes an average cut of 1.4%, an increase in GDP of around 3% is calculated for Italy, but if the conflict does not end, it will be even worse: the more optimistic they are If the focus is on 2%, the pessimists already see zero growth at the end of the year. It is better not to get involved in this dangerous game, we’ll see what figures Daniele Franco will write in the economic and financial document that the minister is preparing. All that is certain is that we will have to get used to a new version of the muchdespised austerity measures we fought for when fat cows grazed.
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