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FRISCO, Texas – The football universe is expanding to include an influx of new capable teams, and the Dallas Cowboys urgently need to reach their goal before things get out of reach. However, their impressive finish to the 2023 regular season ended in a scare in the first round of the playoffs, leading to questions about whether Mike McCarthy would remain the team's head coach.
McCarthy will actually make a decision for at least the 2024 season, which owner and general manager Jerry Jones officially announced Wednesday night; and one that means several things to the organization.
After losing to the Green Bay Packers at AT&T Stadium on Super Wild Card Weekend, a 48-32 loss that was far worse than the final score would suggest, there was/is no shortage of debris to clear up.
The reality is that Jones was forced to weigh the future against the past this week.
Not only is McCarthy a Super Bowl-winning coach, but he has also led the Cowboys to 36 wins and two division titles over the last three seasons and has the highest regular season winning percentage of any head coach in Cowboys history – an article Jones made sure to point out in his official statement that he was carrying a lot of weight on his scale.
“I think the biggest thing is, you know, we're disappointed. I have a whole team in the locker room that is hurting. I didn’t think beyond the outcome of that game.” -Mike McCarthy
What also worked in his favor was the fact that McCarthy's return to offense gave the Cowboys the No. 1 offense in the league, an MVP candidacy for quarterback Dak Prescott and a historic season for the two-time first-team all-American. Pro brought wide receiver CeeDee Lamb.
Now to things to come.
There's no denying how miserable the Cowboys' performance was in the biggest game of the season this time around, and after clinching second place and home-field advantage, they enjoyed a 16-game winning streak. It was a failure on every level – plan, player execution, etc. – by most of those involved on the field, both on the touchline and between the lines, and that served as a huge counterweight to what had happened in the past.
An organization once again poised to end a 28-year championship drought didn't simply fail or reverse, but plunged face-first from Reunion Tower to the street below.
“Our defeat on Sunday is shared by everyone here, not just coach McCarthy. Our players. Our trainers. Our front office. I myself.” -Jerry Jones
And so there was enough justification to leave McCarthy, but also enough to keep him for the final year of a five-year contract and send him on a trial season.
The Cowboys choose the latter.
For Prescott, this means there will be no further restructuring at the top of the coaching pyramid and on the offensive side. The 30-year-old quarterback readily admits that he played some of his worst football games against the Packers, and therefore shares some of the blame in that he also tied himself to McCarthy's hot seat.
He will now avoid a second regime change and a move to a fourth attacking maestro if McCarthy continues to be the player, which is expected.
“I understand that it’s about winning the Super Bowl. That's the standard of this league and damn sure the standard of this place. I understand, but in this case add me to the list.” -Dak Prescott
The expectation is that Prescott could likely get a contract extension this offseason, but given his no-trade clause and the structure of his current contract, he will still be QB1 in Dallas.
Prescott entered the league in that role alongside Scott Linehan before it was traded to Kellen Moore, who divorced after the 2022 season. McCarthy made further changes to the coaching staff under him, and it's unclear whether he'll make a splash in that regard, but the more pressing matter lies on the defensive side of the equation, where Dan Quinn resides.
Quinn's era with the Cowboys has been mostly stellar since he replaced Mike Nolan as defensive coordinator in 2021. The team led the NFL in both QB pressures and takeaways roughly every year and had not allowed a 100-yard receiver or 100-yard rusher for much of the 2023 season, despite adding record-setting cornerback Trevon Diggs for that season and lost former Pro Bowl linebacker Leighton Vander Esch.
DaRon Bland's emergence as record holder himself helped soften the blow, and several other players made strides in their development under Quinn and his team – including Al Harris – including Osa Odighizuwa, Markquese Bell and, of course, Micha Parsons.
But for all the great things accomplished over the last three regular seasons, it was a unit that also contributed to the Cowboys' demise against the Packers by producing zero takeaways, pressuring Jordan Love just four times and a huge number of chunks plays and suffers from misunderstandings in real time.
But similar to McCarthy, the Cowboys have to weigh the past against the future, although Quinn, unlike McCarthy, could potentially make the decision for them.
The Cowboys are not expected to want to move on from Quinn, but he is currently interviewing for head coaching vacancies, including with the Seattle Seahawks. So there's no way yet to know for sure whether Quinn will remain in Dallas as defensive coordinator coach.
Should that not be the case, retaining McCarthy ensures that at least one mainstay remains in place going forward, rather than the coaching staff being completely blown up by Jones this offseason.
If Quinn stays, Dallas will be as close to “run it back” as possible, although the NFL's turnover rule means the roster will look different in many ways.
McCarthy has built a culture in Dallas that draws praise from his players at every turn. Some even went so far as to advocate on social media for him to stay there.
“Just like we said today, let’s get this back.” – Juanyeh Thomas
As a reminder, this intangible value was also placed on McCarthy's scale by the Joneses.
In the end, there will be no head coaching change for the Cowboys, a team that continues to show that it has no interest in experiencing a merry-go-round of head coaches on a regular basis, but instead feels like it's not far from its goal . There is evidence to support this line of thought, but recent evidence also calls it into question, and only time will tell what lies at the end of this trail.
Either it will be the long-lost sixth Lombardi Trophy, or the team will stand before the same scales in the near future and wonder what might have been.
Needless to say, they're hoping for the former.
The phrase “Super Bowl or bust” is used a lot in the NFL, especially when referring to the Cowboys, but rarely has it been truer than in this moment.
The stars have no choice but to align in 2024.