Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman once compared Iran’s supreme leader to Hitler, but has now given the go-ahead for a reconciliation deal that should usher in a new era of regional prosperity.
As the 29-year-old defense minister, he launched a bitter attack on the Houthi rebels in neighboring Yemen, but is now conducting behind-the-scenes talks that could eventually remove Saudi forces from the conflict.
He has also worked to bridge bitter rifts with regional rivals like Qatar and Turkey, and has even offered the Gulf kingdom as a possible mediator for the war in Ukraine.
Analysts say this indicates a development of the now 37-year-old Prince Mohammed from unpredictable disruptor to pragmatic power player.
The deal with Iran in particular “marks a fundamental shift in its political approach” and signals “maturity and a more realistic understanding of regional power politics,” said Umar Karim, a Saudi foreign policy expert at Birmingham University.
But whether such de-escalation measures will be successful – and how far they will go – is not yet foreseeable.
The deal with Iran has yet to be implemented, with embassies due to reopen by the second week of May after seven years of severe bilateral ties.
Saudi Arabia and Syria are also in talks to resume consular services, the kingdom’s state media said Thursday, more than a decade after the Gulf kingdom severed ties with President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
Riyadh had long openly advocated Assad’s overthrow.
Regardless of what happens next, Riyadh’s agenda is clear: minimize turbulence abroad to shift the focus to a range of economic and social reforms at home.
“Our vision is a prosperous Middle East,” said a Saudi official, “because without developing your region with you, there are limits to what you can achieve.”
– ‘Vision’ in Danger –
It was first of all domestic political reforms that helped to polish Prince Mohammed’s reputation on the world stage.
Under his oversight, the formerly secluded kingdom sidelined the notorious religious police, allowed women to drive, opened movie theaters and began issuing tourist visas.
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His deep sovereign wealth fund has made a series of high-profile investments in everything from Newcastle United to Nintendo, and has hinted at how his Vision 2030 reform agenda could shift the world’s largest crude oil exporter off fossil fuels.
Hovering over all of this were concerns about increased repression, particularly after the 2018 killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul.
But Saudi officials also recognized how security threats, particularly from Iran, were jeopardizing Prince Mohammed’s grand plans.
This point was made clear in 2019 with attacks alleged by the Iran-backed Houthis on Saudi oil facilities, which temporarily halved crude oil production.
Riyadh and Washington accused Tehran of being behind the operation, which the Iranians denied.
The incident was a turning point and spurred Saudi Arabia to take a more conciliatory path, analysts and diplomats say.
Saudi officials have been deeply disappointed by the lukewarm response of then-US President Donald Trump’s administration, which they say is undermining the oil-security tradeoff that has underpinned the two countries’ partnership for decades.
“The Saudis were shocked that the Americans did nothing to protect them,” said an Arab diplomat in Riyadh.
“Saudi officials told us, ‘We need to focus on the mega-projects,'” the diplomat added, citing a futuristic mega-city called NEOM and a burgeoning arts hub in the northern city of AlUla.
“If a missile hits NEOM or AlUla, there will be no investment or tourism. The vision will collapse.”
– ‘Reduce temperature’ –
In the reconciliation with Iran, Prince Mohammed did not go alone.
Neighboring Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates resumed full diplomatic relations with the Islamic Republic last year.
But the Saudi-Iranian deal is seen as more significant because the two Middle East heavyweights have often found themselves on opposite sides of conflicts — not just in Yemen, but also in countries like Lebanon and Iraq.
“The Kingdom is pursuing a calibrated geopolitical reset that seeks to holistically improve the broader regional security environment,” said Eurasia Group’s Ayham Kamel.
Anna Jacobs of the International Crisis Group added: “Cuting the temperature down with Iran is a smart way to ease tensions across the region and defuse some of the proxy fighting over Saudi Arabia.”
The next step in implementing the agreement is a meeting between the foreign ministers of both countries, which has not yet been scheduled.
Earlier this week, an Iranian official said President Ebrahim Raisi had positively received an invitation from King Salman, Prince Mohammed’s father, to visit Saudi Arabia, although Riyadh has yet to confirm this.
These anticipated encounters are being closely monitored as concerns remain that the rapprochement remains fragile.
“Distrust between Saudi Arabia and Iran runs deep,” Jacobs said, “and both sides need to see positive signals from the other side very soon to proceed with the deal.”
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