Sending more advanced weapons to Ukraine increases the risk of conflict spreading

THE NEW YORK TIMES The race continues.

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While columns of Russian troops began to invade Ukraine Almost two months ago, the US and its allies began supplying Kyiv with weapons and equipment for a war that many expected would be short: sniper rifles, helmets, medical kits, encrypted communicators, vast amounts of ammunition, and the Stinger and Javelin manportable missiles , who quickly became icons of this war conflict.

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Contrary to expectations, Ukraine kept its capital and expelled the Russians from the north of the country. Now that the Kremlin is shifting gears and a concerted effort to conquer eastern Ukraine begins, Washington and their allies also occupy a prominent position, striving to equip Ukraine with heavier and more advanced weaponry so that the country can defend itself in this appalling war.

But this strategy carries a notable risk: angering Russia so much that it triggers a larger, international conflict.

Russia recently sent a formal warning to the US, saying that Western supplies of “more sensitive” weapons systems to Ukraine could have “unpredictable consequences”.

Ukrainian soldiers fire a BM21 Grad multiple rocket launcher system Photo: Serhii Nuzhnenko/Reuters

US officials say the alert proves the weapons being sent make a big difference on the battlefield. So, at least in Washington, concerns about supplying Ukraine with weapons, which the Russians might see as an “escalation,” have subsided as have initial worries that Ukraine might be using longrange weapons like fighter jets to attack.Moscow is unleashing a major war.

Officials in Washington are currently deciding how much information to give Ukrainians about bases on Russian territory, as Ukrainians are already conducting helicopter strikes on Russian fuel storage facilities. THAT White House It also included the delivery of some weapons capable of hitting Russian forces across the border, such as rocket artillery, fighterbombers and mediumrange drones.

Some argue that Americans are overly cautious. “Seven weeks ago they were discussing whether or not to send the Stinger missiles which seems absurd now, doesn’t it?” said retired Lt. Gen. Frederick Hodges, a former commander of the US Army in Europe. “We were deterred by an excessive fear of what could possibly happen.”

Concerns about provoking a major war remain for some NATOmost notably in Germany, which is concerned that the delivery of the Marder infantry fighting vehicle, considered one of the best armored vehicles in the world, could be perceived by Russia as Berlin’s and NATO’s entry into the war.

Robert Habeck, an influential minister in the new federal government, said the use of tanks would mean an escalation and should be the result of a consensus between NATO and the European Union. “Tanks are synonymous with heavy weapons and all NATO countries have so far ruled out this hypothesis in order not to become a target,” he said.

But these decisions are sovereign not in the alliance. And anyway, Washington and numerous allies are sending such weapons to Ukraine, focused on providing Sovietera weapons that Ukrainians can handle, along with Western weapons that Ukrainians can easily absorb.

Russia is attacking Ukraine indiscriminately, making it difficult for these new weapons to flow from Ukraine’s western borders with Poland, Romania and Slovakia to the battlefields in the east. That poses another risk: that Russian attacks will spill over Ukraine’s border and into NATO countries that President Joe Biden has promised to militarily defend “every inch”.

The unfolding of this logistical race could affect the outcome of the war.

Russian forces are repositioning themselves for what the Kremlin and Ukrainian officials are calling a decisive offensive to seize eastern Ukraine after an awkward retreat from northern Ukraine and the suburbs of the capital Kyiv.

Unlike many of the previous battles, this battle will be fought more between open air tanks with longrange artillery and more heavily armed drones.

The Western effort is as extensive as it is costly, involving up to 30 countries, not all NATO members. The effort right now is to get countries that have Sovietera tanks, artillery pieces, and maybe even fighter jets to send the weapons to Ukraine on the promise that the US will in return replace their equipment with more modern weapons will. made in the west. There is an extreme need for 152mm howitzer shells that were used in the former Soviet bloc as NATO uses a different 155mm shell.

The US has also agreed to supply 155mm howitzers along with 40,000 rounds of that size, while also attempting to purchase Sovietstandard ammunition from countries that use them, including countries outside Europe such as the United States Afghanistan and even India, a former buyer of Russian arms.

But that’s not enough, Hodges argued. “We’re not thinking big yet,” he said. “We are not yet thinking about a victory for Ukraine.”

Unlike the early stages of the war, when many countries appeared to be competing to announce what they would ship to Ukraine, the current race is largely secret.

Much of this coordination, including ways to get this equipment to Ukraine, is carried out by US European Command or EUCOM, based in Stuttgart, Germany, and by a Britishfounded entity euphemistically called the International Donor Coordination Center.

The command said it set up a “control center” in early March to coordinate the delivery of arms and humanitarian aid “from around the world” to Ukraine. However, he did not want to give any details about the initiative.

“Actually, we don’t have time to send a lot of American heavy weapons to Ukraine, and we don’t have time to train Ukrainian military personnel,” said former US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. “But there is still plenty of Soviet military equipment in the arsenals of the Eastern European countries.”

Ukrainians drag an abandoned Russian tank from a field near the village of Lypivka, west of Kyiv, on Friday, April 15, 2022. Washington and its allies are scouring Central Europe and the world to provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs for the next phase of the war. (David Guttenfelder/The New York Times) Photo: NYT / NYT

The US, he said, “should plunder the arsenals” of the former Warsaw Pact countries’ armored and air defense systems, “with the promise that the US will later supply our NATO allies with our equipment.”

That’s exactly what Washington is rushing to do, Pentagon officials said, describing its own efforts to persuade Slovakia to supply Ukraine with S300 missile systems. On March 9, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin entered into talks with his Slovakian counterpart Jaroslav Nad and agreed to send Patriot missile batteries to replace the armament Slovakia is sending to Ukraine.

Similar talks are taking place between other allies who possess Sovietera weapons and ammunition, officials said. Americans say they also talk to Ukrainians several times a day about what Ukraine wants or needs and which Western countries they think can help the most.

President of Ukraine, Volodmyr ZelenskyyShe has repeatedly thanked us for the help, but wants more and sooner. Admitting that he was irritated because he kept making the same requests to different international interlocutors, he told The Atlantic magazine in Kyiv: “When some leaders ask me what weapons I need, I take a moment to reflect calm down, because I already told you last week. It’s like groundhog day. I feel like Bill Murray.”

Last week, the Pentagon met with executives from eight major military equipment manufacturers, including Raytheon Co. and Lockheed Martin Corp., to discuss ways to resolve any supply problems both to replenish the American arsenal intended to help Ukraine and to help Kyiv in the to keep fight. The two companies jointly make the Javelin missile systems, and Raytheon makes the Stingers.

The US alone has spent or provided around $2.6 billion for this equipment since the war began on February 24, and the European Union has provided €1.5 billion ($1.6 billion) for this equipment . However, there is no prospect of US or NATO troops assisting Ukraine, officials say. The West supplies weapons and information and gathers behind the scenes. / TRANSLATION BY GUILHERME RUSSO