Multilateralism versus breaking off diplomatic relations. The Peronist candidate for the presidency of Argentina, Sergio Massa, contrasted his vision of foreign relations with that of his rival, the far-right Javier Milei. “What the world expects from Argentina is balance, rationality and security. “What he expects is moderation, multilateralism and predictability,” he said in a press conference with foreign correspondents, the first after his victory in the first round of presidential elections this Sunday with 36.7% of the vote, compared to 30.%. by Milei.
Massa placed the ultra-liberal economist at the other extreme, that of unpredictability, seeing him as a leader who “proposes the disintegration of Mercosur, the breaking of the agreements with China, the break of the Holy See with the Argentine Pope…, all sorts of things “. that “They have nothing to do with our distinctiveness and the values that the Argentine citizen represents.” Should he reach the Casa Rosada, Massa promised that one of his priorities would be to promote the export of Argentine goods and services.
The Peronist candidate was particularly harsh on Milei’s proposal to dismantle Mercosur, the economic bloc that connects Argentina with Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay. During the election campaign, the ultra-liberal economist advocated “the abolition of Mercosur because it is a defective customs union that harms the good Argentines.” Massa warned at the press conference that this measure will have a very negative impact on the labor market: “In relation to the automotive industry, it means the loss of 150,000 jobs.” In terms of agroforestry, it means the loss of 68,000 jobs,” he noted.
Gustavo Martínez Pandiani, Massa’s representative for external relations, added that around 1,500 SMEs rely on trade with Brazil and it needs to go more, not less. “We don’t look at foreign policy from an ideological perspective. “We will not stop promoting Argentina in some countries because we do not agree on everything,” he added after the press conference.
If he becomes Argentina’s president, Massa will promote international trade with his main partners China and Brazil, but also seek to grow in markets such as Southeast Asia, Arab countries and Africa. “Argentina must stop being a chronic debt beggar and become a job seller. And that, in my opinion, is the most important thing that I will entrust as president. “My two goals will focus on the work I want to sell to the world and fighting against insecurity, living in a country with peace and order,” he stressed.
female voice
The candidate is convinced that he has a chance of winning in the second round on November 19th. To achieve this, she must win the votes of those candidates who were excluded from the election campaign: the conservative Patricia Bullrich, who received the support of 23.8% of voters; the dissident Peronist Juan Schiaretti (7%) and the left-wing candidate Myriam Bregman (2.7%). Milei turned to Bullrich this Sunday to forge an alliance to “end Kirchnerism,” but it is not clear how many of his voters he can win over. “The leaders are not the owners of the votes, the owner of the votes is the citizen. And when someone tries to take over the will of the citizen, the first thing they do is take away their trust,” he emphasized.
However, she aims to retain the women’s vote, which is key to her victory in the elections. “If you look at the composition of my voice, you will notice something special. The average proportion of 37% who accompanied us is largely made up of women. For women we reach almost 45%, for men a little less, almost 30%, he replied. Massa attributed this vote to mothers’ concerns about the future of their children.: “They don’t want to live in a society where selling organs and freely carrying weapons is the value system.”
Massa reiterated his desire to lead a government of national unity, not only Peronist, but also “the best of different political forces, regardless of their origins”, with the aim of creating a state policy. These include, among other things, a balanced budget, the maintenance of the central bank’s reserves (today in red), a federal development policy, access to housing and care for vulnerable sectors.
Optimism for 2024
The Minister of Economy drew an optimistic scenario for 2024, the first year of Alberto Fernández’s succession at the helm of Argentina. According to the forecasts, exports will increase between 30,000 and 40,000 million dollars, mainly due to the recovery of the field after the historic drought of the last campaign and to gas exports. If the forecast comes true, the inflow of foreign currency could reduce the current import and dollar purchase restrictions.
Even if the sector returns to full capacity, the new president will have to renegotiate the debt taken on with the International Monetary Fund in 2018, as it is not possible to pay it off within the agreed terms. Should he reach the Casa Rosada, Massa expects he will try to negotiate a program with the IMF “linked to the growth and development” of Argentina.
The current Minister of Economy expects to require that the 2024 budget project, which currently envisages a primary budget deficit of 0.9% of GDP, has a primary surplus of 1% “arising from the treatment of benefit cuts”. The budget adjustment is one of the goals of the IMF program signed in March 2022 to refinance the organization’s debt, which already amounts to $46 billion including interest.