Published November 24, 2023 at 5:49 p.m. Updated November 24, 2023 at 6:37 p.m.
It is a political earthquake that may seem minor from Paris, but will greatly anger Beijing. And it portends tensions between China, Taiwan and its American ally in the coming months. In Taiwan, candidates from the two main opposition parties, who favor appeasement or even compromise with Beijing, spectacularly tore up the agreement on Friday that would allow them to run together in the Jan. 13 presidential election.
Kuomintang Party candidate Hou Yu-ih and TPP candidate Ko Wen-je could not agree on who would run for president and who would only become vice president, against the party’s presidential candidate, the DPP, current vice president Lai Ching-te. During a televised debate on Thursday evening, the two men exchanged sharp remarks and insults live. That’s why they registered their application separately on Friday morning, shortly before the deadline.
Beijing will express its displeasure
This creates a boulevard to Lai Ching-te. And this is of geopolitical importance, as the DPP party is determined to confront the Chinese regime’s attempts to eventually integrate the “rebel island” voluntarily or by force. Furthermore, the vast majority of Taiwanese do not want to be absorbed into the communist regime at any cost. Lai Ching-te has certainly been ahead in the polls in recent months with 35% of the vote, but was vulnerable to an alliance between Hou Yu-ih, credited with 17.8%, and Ko Wen-te. I, which received 17.1%, while 11.6% of the vote went to billionaire Terry Gou (who threw in the towel on Friday).
Beijing, which considers Taiwan part of its territory on the grounds that it was under its sovereignty from 1683 to 1895, is extremely hostile to the DPP and has cut off high-level communications with the government of outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen. The Chinese navy and air force are closing in on Taiwan’s space and waters daily, fraying the nerves of the island’s pilots who are forced to take off on interception missions.
The Chinese regime last summer labeled Lai Ching-te a “troublemaker” and accused him of wanting to declare Taiwan’s formal independence, which would automatically trigger a war, even though he has been committed to maintaining the current status quo since 1949. At that time, the troops of the nationalist Kuomintang Party had retreated to the island after their defeat on the continent against Mao Tse-tung.
A strange situation
Taiwan, officially the “Republic of China,” finds itself in a bizarre status, as it still notionally claims to represent all of China, but as a sovereign state only by a dozen small countries that can afford to be indifferent to it Beijing’s allegations are acknowledged.
The West only recognizes it as a “de facto sovereign country” or “entity with self-determination”, even if Washington does not rule out supporting it militarily in the event of an invasion… To make matters worse, Beijing is the first economic partner of Taiwan, undoubtedly one Means to bring it to resipiscence. For example, Terry Gou’s group, Foxconn, a major subcontractor of Apple, is very active in mainland China, and its withdrawal from the presidential election was undoubtedly at the behest of Beijing so as not to hear the voices of the opposition.
Satisfaction for Washington
If the split of the “ticket” between the two main opposition candidates represents a setback for Beijing, it logically represents “a relief for Washington,” points out Chu Chao-hsiang, a professor at the National University of Taiwan. The favorite, Lai Ching-te, is considered pro-American; his vice presidential candidate is also a former ambassador to the United States. We must also expect Beijing to raise its voice by January 13 and reinforce its intimidating military positions in the 100-mile (160 km) strait that separates the island from the continent.
Chinese number one, Xi Jinping, is obsessed with Taiwan being reintegrated into the motherland after Hong Kong. Unless an opposition candidate is elected who is willing to negotiate reintegration, this suggests that China, population 1.45 billion, will one day invade the island of just 24 million (but vital to the global semiconductor industry). and the second largest economy in the world.
Beijing’s army is also said to be the second largest in the world in terms of numbers and equipment, but no one knows its combat value since none of its soldiers have seen fire in Vietnam since 1979.