Four games to decide the Final Four. The first two today.
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Last time: 7-1
NCAA Tournament 2023: 30-30
Regular Season 2022-23: 45-30
Kansas State (-2 1/2) v Florida Atlantic, 6:09 p.m. TBS. Markquis Nowell worked his way into NCAA tournament lore Thursday night at Madison Square Garden, right down to the rickety return from a rolled ankle that revived memories of Willis Reed just two days after the captain’s death. But while much of America was just discovering Kansas State’s tiny Dynamo, those of us who follow men’s college basketball closely have been fascinated by it since the start of the season. The fifth-grader, who joined from Little Rock two years ago, lit up Nevada with 29 points and 11 assists in a 96-87 win in overtime at the Cayman Islands Classic during Thanksgiving week. He never faltered, propelling the Wildcats, picked last season to finish last in the Big 12 (for understandable reasons), to a 15-1 start. They entered the AP Top 25 at No. 11 when they won back-to-back games in Texas and Baylor in early December. On January 23, they rose to fifth place and finished the regular season in 15th place. This team is a remarkable story, but it’s no coincidence.
The same goes for the other fake Cinderellas in this game. Yes, Florida Atlantic is an off-the-radar school in a mid-major conference (albeit one of the better ones), but this team has now won 34 games with just three losses. The Owls have played a significantly easier schedule than Kansas State’s (No. 152 compared to No. 16 for the Wildcats), but they are ahead of the Wildcats in the NET (13) and KenPom (17) and were ranked No. 1 .25 in the last AP poll. While Kansas State relies heavily on Nowell and 6-5 senior forward Keyontae Johnson, Florida Atlantic plays a much more egalitarian system. The Owls rank 14th in the country in terms of bench minutes at KenPom, and in their three NCAA tournament games, nine players have averaged between 18 and 31 minutes. This isn’t just depth for depth’s sake—it’s depth of quality.
With so many options, Coach Dusty May and his boys can feel how a game is going (who has the hot hand, who has the advantageous matchup) and adjust accordingly. Exhibit A was the Sweet 16 game against Tennessee, when the Owls shot 3 of 14 from behind the arc in the first half and were five down at the break. Instead of changing their strategy, they stayed the course because they knew it worked all season. When the shots began to come in the second half, this gap quickly disappeared and FAU won 62:55. It was the outsider in name and seed only.
Giancarlo Rosado and the owls are breaking new ground for the FAU programme. (Robert Deutsch / USA Today)
Therefore, in order to select this game, there is no need to judge whether a brave underdog can continue a hot phase. It’s a fundamental exercise in analyzing how two really good teams fit together. And in this case, I think Kansas State has the favorable matchup. FAU was able to get past Tennessee because they were the smaller, faster team, but Kansas State ranks 310th in the country in altitude with KenPom. (FAU is 329th — and don’t you think it’s great that being smaller is considered a size advantage these days?) Teams are close in terms of efficiency rankings, but Kansas State is much better on both offensive and defensive free throws Rate. That’s remarkable considering all of K-State’s starters shoot 71 percent or better off the line and Nowell converts 89 percent. FAU is the much deeper team (the Wildcats can’t afford problems, period), but as is the case with Michigan State (and most teams they play on), the Wildcats will have the top two players in the game.
So the only open question is the condition of Nowell’s wheel. That won’t be an issue for the simple reason that he’s a superhero. And while the Garden is one of the few stages that does justice to Nowell’s amazing talents, an even bigger stage awaits in Houston. There Nowell and his teammates will end their season. The choice: Kansas State
UConn (-2 1/2) vs. Gonzaga, 8:49 p.m. TBS. Drew Timme has another year of eligibility, but he’s made it clear that this is his last collegiate season. It’s a shame because he was one of the most talented and entertaining players in modern history. Timme was at his most brilliant Thursday night against UCLA when he had 36 points, 13 rebounds, four assists and two blocks in Gonzaga’s 79-76 win. Still, there are two areas where Timme is far from brilliant – free throws (as evidenced by the two tries he missed in the last minute that nearly cost the Zags the game) and defense. It’s just one of the reasons Gonzaga is in trouble in this game and why I think Timme’s storied career will end in Las Vegas.
As brilliant as Adama Sanogo has been all season, he was even more so this tournament. After scoring six points in the first half against Iona, Sanogo exploded for 22 (on 10 of 12 shots) in the second half and hasn’t let up since. Sanogo has a tournament average of 23.3 points (at 75 percent shooting) and 9.7 rebounds. His backup, 7-2 rookie Donovan Clingan, is averaging 7 points and 6 rebounds in 13 minutes. We call that a problem, because either Timme and his frontcourt partner Anton Watson will have to live with those two centers getting their numbers, or they’ll have to match UConn’s physicality in the pivot — which in turn could lead to lazy trouble. That would all but eliminate Gonzaga’s chances of winning.
Gonzaga doesn’t have many teams that can match Timme in the middle, but if UConn can do that then the guards will decide the game. UConn has a significant advantage in this department. Timme scored the most points against UCLA and Julian Strawther made the biggest shot, but it was junior guard Malachi Smith, the 6-4 transfer from Chattanooga, that helped save the team with 12 points in the second half. UConn’s perimeter trio of Tristen Newton, Jordan Hawkins and Andre Jackson Jr. have grown together over the course of the season (Jackson had 21 assists and six turnovers in three tournament games). And Dan Hurley benefits from his reserve guards Nahiem Alleyne and Joey Calcaterra. The Huskies rolled over the first three laps with an average lead of 20.7 points. Gonzaga is a very good team but the huskies are great and playing their best. The choice: UConn
(Top photo by UConn’s Adama Sanogo: Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)