Half of the Final Four is set. The other half is coming today. We’ve only got three game days left in the college basketball season, so let’s savor whatever’s left.
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Sweet 16: 7-1
Elite Eight: 1-1
NCAA Tournament 2023: 31-31
Regular Season 2022-23: 45-30
Creighton (-1 1/2) v San Diego State, 2:20 p.m. CBS. When I wrote my annual Hoop Thoughts Stock Report in early January, I gave Creighton the coveted Buy Plus rating. The Bluejays had entered the season at No. 9 on the AP Top 25 but fell out of the rankings during a six-game losing streak in December. Three of those games were played without a 7-1 junior center Ryan Kalkbrenner. When he came back, so did victory, which is why I continued to put Creighton on my AP ballot, even though my fellow voters left them unranked. The Bluejays eventually rejoined the poll in early February and finished the regular season ranked 24th, but then dropped out after Xavier overtook them by 22 points in the Big East tournament. I voted Creighton 16th in my last poll.
My devotion was not unconditional. When the bracket came out, I picked the Bluejays to lose to UCSB in the second round. I did this partly out of respect for UCSB, but mostly because I knew big surprises were going to happen, so I figured I might as well grab a flyer. (I was right about the first part anyway.) Creighton’s performance in the last three games has validated why this team went into the season with such high expectations. Kalkbrenner was the top two-way player of the tournament and arguably the best in the country all season. He had a career-high 31 points in the first-round win over NC State, along with seven rebounds and three blocks, and he had 22 points, five rebounds and one block in Sweet 16’s win over Princeton. Kalkbrenner’s ability to anchor down the middle gives Creighton shooters plenty of room and freedom, and all of the starters are capable of big goal nights. Ryan Nembhard went to 30 in the second round against Baylor; Baylor Scheierman lost 21 at Princeton. Additionally, the Bluejays shot from the foul line an amazing 52 of 57 over the three games. How to get Capone.
And yet…as I’ve said time and time again, the NCAA tournament is all about matchups. Creighton’s greatest weakness is its lack of depth, a problem that became more acute when Mason Miller, the team’s seventh man (9.1 minutes per game this season), went 6-9 in the freshman, faltering in the win over NC State injured his ankle and didn’t play until he checked into the game in the final, bank-heavy seconds against Princeton. On the other hand, KenPom ranks San Diego State 31st in the country in percentage of bench minutes, and Brian Dutcher is making heavy use of his bench. The Aztecs don’t try to push teams off the ground and run, but they wear down their opponents with their physicality, and their depth allows for significant margin for error. When their top scorer Matt Bradley had one of his worst scorers of the season against Alabama (six points, 2 of 9 from the field), Darrion Trammell, a 5-10 senior transfer from Seattle, stepped in and scored 21 points , and the Defense of the Aztecs carried them the rest of the way.
The biggest difference between Creighton and Alabama is that the Bluejays are much more efficient in their half-court attack. Yes, they like to fire up Transition 3s, but if they need to grind it out, they can. However, the state of San Diego is better at grinding. If the Aztecs can slow Alabama’s attack, they can certainly do the same to Creighton.
San Diego State’s defense is highly efficient (No. 4 nationally), and while not disruptive, it is very imposing, as befits a team that ranks No. 21 in experience on the KenPom list . That means San Diego State has a strong chance of getting onto Creighton’s bench, either through fatigue or nasty troubles. I’m not so much selling Creighton right now as I’m buying San Diego State. The Aztecs play adult basketball, and that should be enough to send them to Houston. The choice: San Diego State
San Diego State is old, tough, and in the Elite Eight. (Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Texas (-4 1/2) vs. Miami, 5:05 p.m. CBS. For those of us who have been watching Houston closely all season, it was incredible to see Miami dismember the Cougars’ defense on Friday night. Houston ranked second nationally in points allowed (57.5), fourth in efficiency, and had given up 70 points just three times this season. Still, the Hurricanes scored 89 points at 57.1 percent shots from the floor, 44 percent from 3-point range, and 84.2 percent from the foul line. After Miami built up a sizable lead in the second half, Houston had to push, which in turn opened up the ground even more. Overall, Miami held the lead for more than 34 minutes, leading by 17 points with eight minutes to go and going home with an 89-75 win.
Even more impressive is the fact that Miami even played on the boards with the toughest rebounding team in the country. The Canes did the same in the second round against Indiana when they grabbed 19 offensive rebounds. Junior forward Norchad Omier had eight of them (17 in total) in this one. This is the same Omier who twisted his ankle in the first few minutes of the ACC Tournament semifinal loss to Duke. If Omier had played in that game and helped his team win, we might have had a different take on Miami at the start of the tournament—and Duke, by the way.
Recall that in the first round, Miami fell eight points behind Drake with 4 1/2 minutes left before closing the game on a 16-1 run. Junior guard Isaiah Wong, Miami’s top scorer and ACC Player of the Year, scored just five points on 1-of-10 shots in that game. That should give hope to Texas, which ranks 10th nationally for adjusted defense efficiency and has held opponents in the tournament at an average of 66 points on 30 percent 3-point shooting. The Longhorns aren’t as good defensively as Houston, but they’re pretty close, and unlike the Cougars, they’ve played ranked teams regularly all season. They’re as tested as a team can be.
Texas will likely have to play this game without Dylan Disu, the 6-9 senior forward who had 28 points and 10 rebounds in the second-round win over Penn State but missed the sweet 16 with a foot injury. Christian Bishop, the 6-7 senior signing from Creighton, came off the bench for 18 points and nine rebounds in Friday’s win over Xavier. Disu’s absence also means more minutes for 6-8 forward Dillon Mitchell, an over-talented newcomer whose minutes have dwindled in the second half of the season.
That next-man-up mentality (and next-coach-up mentality) was the Longhorns’ theme all winter. They’re not as explosive offensively as Miami, but Texas’ maturity and the adversity these players have endured have made them unusually connected in all the important intangible ways. It’s not always pretty and it’s not always predictable, but for the most part Texas has found ways to win all season. On Sunday they will do it again. The choice: Texas
(Top photo by Timmy Allen of Texas: Jamie Squire/Getty Images)