DHAKA, Bangladesh (AP) — Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was opposition leader in Bangladesh in 2007 when hundreds of soldiers searched her home and took her to a court in the capital Dhaka, where she was arrested on extortion charges.
Hasina, who was prime minister from 1996 to 2001, described the allegations as a conspiracy to stop her from running in the coming elections. She was fighting for the rights of her people, she said at the time, in a Bangladesh trapped in a state of emergency under a military-backed interim government.
According to a close associate, she was faced with a choice: leave the country or stay in prison. She decided to stay – eleven months later she was released and re-elected prime minister in 2008.
Today she is the longest-serving leader in the history of Bangladesh, a predominantly Muslim nation of over 160 million people strategically located between India and Myanmar, and will consolidate her power in Sunday's general election. The vote follows Hasina's 15-year rule, which turned her from a leader who fought for democracy into one of its biggest threats, critics say.
Hasina's main rival, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, is boycotting the January 7 elections, saying her government cannot ensure a fair vote. This creates the conditions for the 76-year-old Prime Minister to secure her fourth consecutive term and fifth term overall.
Her supporters say Hasina and her Awami League have given them a new Bangladesh. Where there were frequent power outages, there is now industry. More girls are going to school, development projects are in full swing and the stability it has brought has prevented military coups that have shattered the young nation's turbulent history.
In the middle are disillusioned voters who see little chance of changing the status quo.
FILE – An armed Bangladeshi police officer stands guard in front of a mural of Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her father and nation's founder Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in Dhaka, Bangladesh, Jan. 8, 2014. (AP Photo/Rajesh Kumar Singh, File)
HOW IT ALL BEGAN
Hasina's political life was shaped by the military coup and assassination of her father, Sheikh Mujib Rahman, the first leader of independent Bangladesh, on August 15, 1975.
On that fateful night, when 28-year-old Hasina was in Germany with her younger sister, a group of army officers stormed into the family's home in Dhaka and killed her parents, three other siblings and household staff – 18 people in total.
Some say the brutal act led them to consolidate unprecedented power. Analysts say it also motivated her throughout her political career.
“Hasina has a very strong trait as a politician – and that is weaponizing trauma,” said Avinash Paliwal, a lecturer in South Asian strategic affairs at SOAS University of London.
FILE – Bengali nationalist leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman walks towards a row of microphones to address an estimated one million people at a rally at the Dacca Race Course Grounds on January 11, 1972. (AP Photo/Michel Laurent, File)
FILE – Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina speaks at the opening session of the National Parliament in Dhaka on July 14, 1996. (AP Photo/Pavel Rahman, File)
For Hasina, her father was the founder of independent Bangladesh after its armed forces, supported by India, defeated Pakistan in 1971. Central to her ambitions was creating the nation he envisioned, according to a source who worked closely with Hasina.
“She felt that her father's work was being cut short and that only she could finish it,” they told The Associated Press, speaking to the media on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to do so speak.
After the assassination, Hasina lived in exile in India for years, then returned to Bangladesh and took the helm of the Awami League. But the military rulers kept her imprisoned in and out of the house throughout the 1980s until she became prime minister for the first time after the 1996 general election.
TWO WOMEN, TWO PARTIES
What followed was a decades-long power struggle between Hasina and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, the head of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, who is now battered and under house arrest.
The two women took turns ruling the country for years in a bitter rivalry that polarized Bangladeshi politics. Hasina has often accused the BNP of courting hardline extremists that her party, which describes itself as moderate and secular, has struggled to stamp out, while Zia's BNP claims the Awami League is using repressive tactics to stay in power to stay.
But analysts say that while both parties represent different ideologies, they are marked by a history of electoral violence and politics of retaliation.
FILE – A woman holds a placard as Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) supporters form a human chain to mark International Human Rights Day in Dhaka, Bangladesh, Dec. 10, 2023. (AP Photo/Mahmud Hossain Opu, File)
Recently, Hasina's government accused the BNP of arson and sabotage after a fire on a passenger train killed four people in December, claiming the opposition was trying to create chaos ahead of the election. The BNP rejected the accusation.
Years of turmoil
Hasina's party lost the 2001 parliamentary elections, after which she became opposition leader again. Political violence, unrest and military interventions characterized the following years until she was re-elected in 2008.
This time she focused on the economy and built infrastructure never seen before in Bangladesh. A strong power grid that reaches distant villages; Large projects such as highways, railway lines and ports. The country's clothing industry became one of the most competitive in the world.
Abdul Halim, a rickshaw driver in Dhaka, says he is not a supporter of the prime minister, but “Hasina gave us electricity.”
“I thought my family would never have electricity at home. Now my whole village has electricity,” he said.
FILE – A Bangladesh Awami League Party supporter carries a giant portrait of Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina during an election rally in Dhaka, Bangladesh, Dec. 27, 2018. (AP Photo/Anupam Nath, File)
Development progress led to further progress: girls received an education equal to that of boys, and more and more women entered the world of work. Those close to her describe Hasina as very practical and passionate about empowering women and poor people. Her supporters also credit her with neutralizing the growing threat of Islamic militancy.
According to Mohammad A. Arafat, an Awami League MP in Dhaka, what Hasina has done for Bangladesh's economic development has been “phenomenal.”
VOTE ON SUNDAY
In the run-up to the election, Hasina showcased some of her outstanding achievements, such as the Dhaka subway and the country's longest bridge, which she inaugurated in 2021 until 2031.
“Bangladesh will never look back,” Hasina said in 2023. “It will continue on its path to becoming a smart, developed and prosperous country.”
But the recent global economic downturn has not spared Bangladesh, exposing cracks in its economy that have sparked labor unrest and discontent with the government.
Mohammed Shohid, a driver in Dhaka, said the government had failed to stop the rise in prices of essential goods – prices of beans and tomatoes have almost doubled in the last two years. “We can’t afford them anymore,” he said.
Hasina's critics say her government has used harsh means to silence dissent, restrict press freedom and limit civil society. Human rights groups cite the forced disappearances of critics. The government rejects the allegations.
In the 2018 elections, an AL-led alliance won 96% of parliamentary seats despite widespread allegations of vote fraud, which authorities denied. In 2014, all major opposition parties boycotted the vote.
FILE – Supporters of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) gather for a protest rally in Dhaka, Bangladesh, July 12, 2023. (AP Photo/Mahmud Hossain Opu, File)
FILE – Supporters of the ruling Bangladesh Awami League beat a lawyer and supporters of the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) during a protest by opposition activists in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on Dec. 29, 2013. (AP Photo/AM Ahad, File)
According to the BNP, in the last few months before Sunday's vote, about 20,000 of its members were arrested on trumped-up charges and tens of thousands of their supporters took to the streets, with some protests turning violent.
With Zia under house arrest and other party leaders behind bars or in exile, observers say Hasina's next term is virtually guaranteed.
A number of independent candidates, including some from the AL itself, and some smaller opposition parties are intended to create the appearance of competition, but in reality can do very little, critics say.
WHAT'S NEXT?
Hasina's government insists the election is inclusive and fair and criticizes the BNP for staying out of the race. But some analysts say the polls reflect broader signs of problems in Bangladesh's democracy.
“There is a history of autocratic slippage in Hasina’s decision-making,” said Paliwal, the university lecturer. “The current elections could be the final stamp for a full-blown one-party state.”
Voters like Dhaka resident Tamanna Rahman, 46, said the prime minister had no real challengers. “We have no choice but to re-elect Hasina.”
On the international stage, Hasina maintained relationships with powerful countries and successfully balanced between rivals. She strongly supports both India and China, even as the two Asian giants are locked in a standoff over a disputed border region. Beijing and New Delhi, in turn, have financed a number of infrastructure projects in Bangladesh.
FILE – Bangladesh's Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina greets the gathering during a conversation with journalists after official election results gave her a third consecutive term in office, Dec. 31, 2018, in Dhaka, Bangladesh. (AP Photo/Anupam Nath, File)
Hasina has also nurtured Bangladesh's historic ties with Russia, shunned by much of the West for its invasion of Ukraine – even as she increasingly courts Western leaders.
“Say what you will about Hasina, but she has managed great power competition very effectively,” said Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute.
Hasina also won international praise when she gave shelter to Rohingya Muslims fleeing law enforcement in neighboring Myanmar in 2017. Around 1.1 million Rohingya now live in overcrowded refugee camps in Bangladesh, and countless of them are dying on treacherous sea journeys for a chance at a better life elsewhere.
The United States – the largest export market for Bangladeshi clothing – announced visa restrictions in May on anyone who disrupts Bangladesh's electoral process. The announcement came after Washington expressed concern about human rights violations and press freedoms in the country.
Analysts viewed the move as an attempt to persuade Hasina to hold a fair election. She hit back, accusing the US of trying to force her from power.
But some of the pressure she was under was made clear at a recent news conference.
“If you talk too much, I’ll turn everything off,” she snapped, her salt-and-pepper hair covered by a traditional sari, her gray eyes fixed on the reporters.
Zillur Rahman, director of the Dhaka-based Center for Governance Studies, says Hasina – who survived 19 assassination attempts and amassed a long list of political enemies – has “no certain exit”.
“She is always under threat… and she needs to be in power,” Rahman said.