In the last six 162-game seasons, the Dodgers have won at least 100 games five times. They have advanced to the NLDS three times in that span, and their only World Series title came in the coronavirus-shortened 2020 season. So after the rigors of a 162-game season and the playoffs that come with it, the Dodgers find themselves in one familiar situation after being defeated by the Diamondbacks this week.
They have a sensational team in the regular season that failed to make it in the small sample size of the postseason.
The plan going forward is always to maintain the greatness of the regular season and hope it continues into the World Series. By 2024, the plan will most likely specifically involve Shohei Ohtani.
When the Dodgers were almost overly conservative last winter, the assumption was that they were trying to reset the luxury tax so they could go crazy and sign Ohtani. According to the most credible estimates, they did not fall below the $237 million threshold and were around $240 million. Still, the Dodgers are fundamentally printing money, especially if they continue to win 100 games per season. You can easily afford Ohtani.
Due to the Dodgers’ financial situation, the belief that Ohtani would prefer to stay on the West Coast and his desire to play for a winner, the Dodgers are the favorites to sign him. Everything is right here. The Dodgers make the most sense as Ohtani’s next team. That doesn’t mean no other team has a chance to sign Ohtani, but the Dodgers are the favorite.
It would be a big step for the franchise both on and off the field.
However, they need more than just Ohtani on the field this offseason. But an incredible amount of talent is coming back.
Let’s say the Dodgers sign Ohtani for pure reasons or for argument’s sake. They will pair him with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman to form a three-superstar group on offense. Will Smith will be back, as will probably Max Muncy and his affordable $10 million option. Remember Gavin Lux? Yes, he will come back from his torn ACL. If the Dodgers sign Ohtani, it’s hard to imagine JD Martinez returning. You only have one DH spot.
But it’s a really good foundation offensively. I wonder if the Dodgers could use some bigger hitters in the order. Platooning players is all well and good – and works especially well during the busy regular season! – but in the playoffs, when you rely on the back half of your team in the middle innings, it just seems like the lineup isn’t deep enough for everyday use. Maybe James Outman will get better and there are others, but the point remains that there is room to add another big hitter even after he hypothetically snags Ohtani.
As for pitching, keep in mind that our hypothetical signing of Ohtani for 2024 doesn’t add up. He has had elbow surgery and will not return to pitching yet. We don’t know what will happen with Clayton Kershaw, but it seems exceedingly likely that Walker Buehler is back from Tommy John surgery.
That means we can at least plan Buehler in the rotation with Bobby Miller and maybe Ryan Pepiot. With Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin not back after major surgeries earlier in the year, Kershaw’s status uncertain, and Julio Urías heading into free agency while on administrative leave, it looks like the Dodgers really need more pitching. We could include youngster Emmet Sheehan and left-hander Ryan Yarbrough, I guess, but for now you’re still looking at a Buehler-Miller-Pepiot-Sheehan-Yarbrough rotation on Opening Day 2024.
It really looks like the Dodgers need some extra help there from outside the organization if they want to continue their dominance in the regular season in hopes of making it through the playoffs.
There are always a lot of moving parts in the off-season. Additionally, the Dodgers are very adept at leveraging their organizational depth and getting the most out of players through internal scouting (Jason Heyward is another in a long line of examples this season). Still, it seems blatantly obvious — even if you’re just spitballing without committing a complete organizational collapse — that the Dodgers need to go after it this offseason, both in free agency and on the trade market.
The bottom line is that we are likely looking at a very aggressive Dodgers team this offseason. The smart money is on them getting Ohtani, and I’m also betting they won’t stop there. Basically, you can expect a lot of talk about the Dodgers in the coming months.