Published on: 19.12.2022 – 18:27 Modified on: 19.12.2022 – 18:47
Ukrainian officials keep saying it: Russia is preparing a “huge winter offensive.” A prospect that may seem surprising for a Russian army that is often presented as a contingent in poor condition. But in the absence of a major attack, Moscow could use the time effectively to launch localized attacks.
Despite snow, cold and Ukraine’s recent military gains, Russia is preparing to launch a major offensive this winter, Ukrainian officials have insisted to international media since December 14.
The Russians “are planning large-scale infantry attacks,” Mykhailo Podoliak, adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, assured the New York Times on Sunday, December 18. Three days earlier, the Ukrainian leader and his army chief, Oleksandr Syrsky, made the same observation in an article in The Economist magazine.
Ukrainian communications operation?
According to some Ukrainian military officials, there is even talk of a new Russian attempt to take Kyiv before the end of winter, the German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung points out. Valeri Zaloujny, supreme commander of the Ukrainian armies, has therefore indicated that the Russians could step up efforts in Donbass, attack the city of Dnipro (north of Zaporiya) or even try to reach Kyiv from Belarus.
Ukrainian claims that surprise. Most observers following developments on the front line in Ukraine, such as the American Institute of War Studies, have been pointing out for weeks that the Russian army is currently strengthening its defensive positions.
The series of setbacks by the Russian military in recent weeks – including the notable loss of Kherson in early November – and reports of chronic shortages of equipment for Russian soldiers also suggest that some sort of winter truce may have allowed the Russians to to strengthen. “They clearly don’t have the logistical resources right now to conduct a large-scale operation,” says Jeff Hawn, a specialist on Russian military affairs and an outside adviser to the New Lines Institute, a US center for geopolitical research.
Hence the hypothesis that Kyiv was able to darken the picture somewhat in order to ensure that Western countries continue to send military equipment to Ukraine, the New York Times underscores.
It wouldn’t be surprising if Kyiv were so vehemently raising the specter of an impending “huge ground offensive,” says Huseyn Aliyev, a specialist in the Ukrainian-Russian conflict at Glasgow University. “Westerners are currently sending anti-aircraft defenses mainly to counter the Russian bombing raids, but with the fighting around the town of Bakhmout [dans l’est de l’Ukraine, NLDR]and the possible desire to launch a new counter-offensive, Kyiv also needs ground equipment such as tanks and ammunition,” emphasizes Huseyn Aliyev.
Russian generals who want to save their position
However, the warnings of a Russian “winter offensive” are not necessarily just a large-scale communications campaign. “We are currently seeing an intensification of movement of troops and equipment to positions in Russia near the border,” said Sim Tack, a military analyst for Forces Analysis, a conflict monitoring firm.
This expert himself recently observed a concentration of new armored vehicles and the construction of tents around military bases near the town of Rovenki, a few kilometers from the Ukrainian Kharkiv-Luhansk border. “It is possible that the same phenomenon is currently occurring in other military bases on the Russian-Ukrainian border,” the specialist said.
>> Read: In the trenches at Bakhmout, where the Ukrainians repel the Russian attacks
This deployment of equipment and new troops can be a harbinger, but “it can also be simply sending equipment and men to reinforce the defense lines,” Sim Tack puts it in perspective.
The idea of a winter offensive in Russia also makes political sense. “Following the Russian military’s recent setbacks, the Kremlin is looking for scapegoats, and many generals will be looking for quick military success to prove they’re still useful,” notes Jeff Hawn.
This is all the more urgent as figures on the fringes of the traditional Russian military world – like Evgueni Prigoyine, head of the Wagner mercenary group, or Chechen military leader Ramzan Kadyrov – are trying to convince Vladimir Putin that they could do better than headquarters Spot.
The Bite of Winter
These soldiers, too, would like to attack as soon as possible because “they know that Ukraine’s technological lead thanks to Western support will only increase if Russia’s reserves of military equipment are depleted,” explains Jeff Hawn.
Even if it means facing the intense cold in Ukraine. All the experts polled by France 24 agree that the Russian army should suffer more from the winter than the Ukrainian armed forces. “The Ukrainians have more modern and reliable equipment, while the Russians don’t have enough food to stay at the front for long,” Sim Tack notes.
This is one of the reasons why the prospect of several Russian offensives to recapture villages or towns – but not a large attack on the whole front – seems believable to this specialist. Russian troops will prefer to spend the winter in cities rather than in temporary shelters set up in the open countryside. In this regard, “The Battle of Bakhmout is exemplary of what could be prepared: this city is not only a gateway to drive the offensive towards the strategic goals of Sloviansk or Kramatorsk, it could also be a rear base for the Russians Forces his winter,” sums up Sim Tack.
