The election of Michelle O’Neill as Prime Minister of Northern Ireland would be a milestone, something unimaginable more than 100 years ago when Northern Ireland itself was founded. O’Neill is a member of the Catholic nationalist party Sinn Féin, the former political wing of the Irish Republican Army (IRA). The victory of this party has increased the pressure for a referendum on a united Ireland.
When Ireland’s independence was debated in the British Parliament in 1912, a little-known member named Agar-Robartes called for the exclusion of four north-eastern counties from an independent Ireland. He argued that “everyone will agree that Ireland is made up of two nations, differing in feeling, character, history and religion.” A nation, he claimed, is Catholic; the other Protestant.
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Debate arose over how much of Northern Ireland should be excluded from any agreement. If there were six counties and if they were chosen for their Protestant majorities, Northern Ireland would have an intrinsic and enduring Protestant majority. Catholics would always be in the minority.
With the last elections, this agreement was finally shattered. For the first time, a Catholic nationalist party won more seats than all Protestant parties. The Catholic population has grown, but Sinn Féin has also increased its share of the Catholic vote. Although the party advocates a united Irish and British withdrawal from the country, it has championed local issues such as health and welfare.
The leader of Sinn Féin in Northern Ireland now has the right to become Prime Minister. The idea of the role of Deputy Prime Minister going to Sir Geoffrey Donaldson of the Democratic Unionist Party will horrify many Protestants who grew up believing they would always be the dominant force in Northern Ireland.
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Donaldson insists he will not take up his post until the “protocol” issue is resolved. In the post-Brexit ‘protocol’, the EU does not recognize the land border in Ireland (between North and South) as a customs border. Instead, the customs border is formed by the sea between Ireland and Britain, recognizing Ireland as a single entity, much to the dismay of those who want Northern Ireland to remain an inseparable part of the UK.
This dispute will not be easy to resolve, but it will give Donaldson a good excuse to delay power-sharing as a smaller party with Sinn Féin for as long as possible.
The idea of parties sharing power on either side of the sectarian divide dates back to the Good Friday Agreement. But what if you were an atheist in Northern Ireland and not a member of either tribe? Who would represent him then? In the last election, the Alliance Party, which stands outside the Catholic/Protestant, Nationalist/Unionist dichotomies, received 13.5% of the vote. It’s a sign that the people of Northern Ireland are growing weary of the divisive categories that have done so much damage in the past.
two magic words
The Good Friday Agreement contains two magic words: “and both”.
The text states that the agreement “recognizes the natural right of all people of Northern Ireland to identify themselves and be accepted as Irish or British or both, as they choose”. This means that citizens of Northern Ireland can hold both an Irish (and therefore access to the EU) and British passport.
The deal also allows the UK Foreign Secretary to call a referendum on Irish unity if he thinks a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin is also the main opposition party in the Republic of Ireland and could enter Dublin government in the next few years. The party wants a referendum on a united Ireland to be held within five years. If this referendum were successful, the Good Friday Agreement guaranteed that the result would be accepted by the British government and Britain would eventually withdraw from Ireland.
Article 3 of the Irish Constitution, redrafted and adopted in a referendum in 1998, reads as follows: “It is the firm will of the Irish nation to unite in harmony and friendship all the peoples who share the territory of the island of Ireland in which full diversity of its identities and traditions, recognizing that a united Ireland can only be achieved through peaceful means with the consent of the majority of the people expressed democratically in both jurisdictions of the island”.
So the question is when such a referendum could be held and whether it has any chance of success.
In the Republic of Ireland there seems to be overwhelming support for a united Ireland. According to a recent poll, 62% would vote for it. But only 15% would like a poll now, and just 20% see it as a priority. A large majority would not support a new flag or a new national anthem in a united Ireland. 79% would not support paying more taxes to enable a united Ireland.
This last point is significant as Northern Ireland, as an economic basket case, needs a subsidy of £10-15 billion a year from London.
In Northern Ireland itself, Protestants would probably vote overwhelmingly against a united Ireland. Catholics would therefore have to weigh up the consequences of being left without a healthcare system superior to that of the republic. And many Catholics, thanks to the end of their discrimination, are now working for the state in Northern Ireland and have an interest in their survival. Would you support radical change? A different education, legal or pension system? The possibility that its Protestant neighbors would not accept a united Ireland? And all the conflicts that might arise?
If a referendum were held now it would most likely be defeated in Northern Ireland and won after much debate in the Republic. But for the change to happen, it would have to be imposed in both jurisdictions.
Sinn Féin would do well to wait for a referendum if they are sure they will win it. However, his supporters, emboldened by his recent win, will want them to continue.
These recent elections, landmark as they are, will not result in a united Ireland any time soon, but will result in further instability in a part of Ireland still recovering from decades of violence. Since it is part of Sinn Féin’s character to be both a vocal opposition and a ruling party, they have indeed won a great victory. In Northern Ireland they will be able to govern the very country they wish to wipe out.
Colm Tobin is an Irish novelist, author of such works as Mothers and children (Lumen) and The Magician (Lumen).
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