The Ukrainian military's plans to deploy more soldiers were dealt a blow after parliament today refused to debate a new bill to expand mobilization. The bill was intended to address shortfalls in the ranks, which are particularly noticeable now that the Ukrainian counteroffensive launched in the summer has achieved limited success.
The bill has already been controversial among lawmakers and the public. After a closed meeting with Ukraine's military leaders today, ruling party leader David Arakhamia said “some provisions directly violate human rights.”
“We understand the request of the military leadership and are ready to comply with it. But not all rules can be supported,” Arakhamia added as the bill was returned to the government.
The bill introduced last month contained several provisions, including tougher penalties for conscientious objectors and a lowering of the entry age for military service from 27 to 25. The bill also proposed abolishing the previously unlimited period of military service and instead shortening it to 36 months.
It is unclear where the latest development leads the Ukrainian armed forces and their drive to increase their troop numbers, although Defense Minister Rustem Umerov has said a new version of the bill is ready for government consideration.
However, when it comes to the military, opposition politician Yaroslav Zheleznyak painted a bleak picture. “In short, there will be no developments under the Mobilization Law. Neither today nor tomorrow. Not in the near future either.”
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During his tour of the Baltic States, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was in Estonia today and met with the leaders of that country. The Ukrainian president once again criticized the idea of a ceasefire, saying that such a move would only benefit Russia and would not lead to political dialogue.
Zelensky warned that a ceasefire would help Russia and give it time to replenish its ammunition supplies. He also noted that Moscow is already trying to increase its available firepower by negotiating arms purchases from both Iran and North Korea. The Ukrainian leader claimed that Russia had so far received more than a million rounds of ammunition from North Korea.
During Zelensky's visit to the Estonian capital Tallinn, the country's President Alar Karis called for long-term defense investments. “Durable peace requires long-term investment in our defense capabilities,” he said.
Thirteen people were injured late Wednesday after two Russian missiles hit the Park Hotel in the city of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, according to local authorities. Among the injured were foreign journalists who were known to use the hotel regularly.
In a post on messaging app Telegram, Kharkiv Governor Oleh Synehubov said the missile attack occurred around 10:30 p.m. local time and involved S-300 surface-to-air missiles that had been repurposed for the land attack role .
“Nine of the injured were taken to medical facilities,” Synehubov wrote. “One of them, a 35-year-old man, is in a serious condition.”
According to AFP, Kharkiv Mayor Igor Terekhov confirmed that 30 civilians were present when the rockets hit the hotel. Terekhov said there were no military personnel there at the time. Several other buildings, including two apartment blocks, were also reportedly damaged in the same attack.
Reacting to the attack, Sergiy Tomilenko, president of the National Union of Journalists of Ukraine, said that the rocket attacks “amounted to intimidation of media workers in order to limit coverage of the war.”
The growing range of Turkish-supplied vehicles currently in use in Ukraine includes the BMC-manufactured Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicle Kirpi (Turkish for hedgehog). Designed to provide significant protection against mine and ballistic threats, the Kirpi features a V-shaped monocoque hull and provisions for standard and additional armor.
An interesting video with subtitles by @wartranslated, reveals the chaos that reigned within a Russian unit after it was attacked by Ukrainian cluster munitions somewhere in the Kharkiv region. Although the date is unknown, the snow on the ground suggests that this could well be the current winter fighting.
Another unsuccessful Russian attack can be seen in the next video, which was reportedly filmed near Kreminna/Terny in the Luhansk region of eastern Ukraine. According to reports, the Russian tank and two BMP series infantry fighting vehicles of the Ukrainian 60th mechanized brigade fell victim.
In our last situation report we talked about an explosion on a railway section near the city of Nizhny Tagil in Russia's Ural region.
According to Russian media outlet Baza, the explosion occurred near an oil depot near the San-Donato train station. Russian Railways said traffic in the area was “restricted” and some trains may be running behind schedule.
A video has now emerged that is supposed to show this damage:
The Black Sea mine problem could be at least partially brought a step closer to resolution thanks to a new mine clearance agreement signed by Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey.
The three NATO members signed a memorandum of understanding in Istanbul to establish the Mine Countermeasures Naval Group in the Black Sea, or MCM Black Sea for short. The new group will oversee demining operations in these waters to ensure the safe passage of ships.
“It is crucial to be protected from security risks that war could bring,” Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Güler said at the signing ceremony. “With the beginning of the war, mines floating in the Black Sea posed a threat. To overcome this, we have come this far with the joint efforts of our Bulgarian and Romanian allies,” he added.
Only ships from Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey will take part in the MCM Black Sea, but there is a possibility that warships from other navies will also get involved in the future.
Ukraine's Black Sea coast was heavily mined at the start of the country's full-scale invasion. Since then, some mines have washed up in the waters of Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey. The mines not only endanger shipping, but are also a thorn in the side of Ukrainian efforts to break the Russian naval blockade, particularly to ensure continued grain exports.
Last month, a Panama-flagged ship arriving to collect grain struck a Russian naval mine in the Black Sea, injuring two sailors, according to Ukrainian authorities.
In a related message, Ukrainian Navy Commander Vice Admiral Oleksiy Neizhpapa said that the country has not asked Turkey to allow two former US Navy Sandown-class mine countermeasure vessels (MCMVs) to enter the Black Sea.
Under the 1936 Montreux Convention, Turkey can block the passage of military ships through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles. The treaty does not apply to ships returning to their home bases.
Neizhpapa said that while the two MCMVs, renamed Cherkassy and Chernihiv, have been handed over to the Ukrainian Navy, they will remain in the UK for crew training for the time being.
First-person view (FPV) drones continue to take their toll on armored vehicles and other battlefield targets with unfailing accuracy. A case in point is the next video, in which a Ukrainian FPV drone armed with explosives appears to enter the turret hatch of a Russian T-72 tank before disabling it.
In the next video, the tables turn when a Russian soldier shoots down an incoming FPV drone with small arms fire.
Russia's Belgorod region, which borders Ukraine, continues to be under attack by Kiev's forces. Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov admitted today that the region faces “difficult times” due to recent shelling by Ukrainian forces.
Gladkow added that residents were “scared” and that “not everyone can handle it physically.”
Hundreds of residents have already left the city of Belgorod, the capital of the Russian border region of the same name, in response to the attacks, which reportedly killed more than two dozen people.
“The Belgorod region is going through difficult times. Not everyone can physically cope with what the Belgorodians had to endure and have to endure. Everyone is afraid, but it is one thing when you sit alone and are afraid, and another when we face this misfortune together.”
Moscow has said it will do “everything” to stop the attacks but has so far failed to prevent Ukrainian attacks on the region.
Belgorod is not alone in feeling the impact of Ukrainian efforts to bring the war to Russia.
The Russian Defense Ministry claimed today that its air defense forces shot down four Ukrainian drones over the Tula, Kaluga and Rostov regions. Meanwhile, in the Voronezh region, Governor Aleksandr Gusev said a Ukrainian drone hit “the roof of a non-residential building” overnight, but said “no damage was caused.”
Unconfirmed reports said the drone's target in the Voronezh region was an aircraft repair facility in Borisoglebsk, about 250 miles from the Ukrainian border.
The United Kingdom supplied Ukraine with its first modern Western-designed tanks, but the Challenger 2s were rarely seen in action, although there was at least one broken example in the past.
Also rarely seen in action is the IRIS-T SLM surface-to-air missile system operated by Ukraine and supplied by Germany. In this example, two IRIS-T missiles are fired at a Russian air target.
A report by Russian military blogger Mikhail Zvinchuk, who writes on Telegram under the name Rybar, suggests that there is dissatisfaction within the Russian ranks over the handling of the Dnieper campaign. Rybar says Russian artillery fire responds too slowly to be of particular use, while Ukrainian aircraft are able to fly overhead unchallenged due to a lack of air superiority. In addition to criticizing the local commander, Rybar claims that Russia's electronic warfare capabilities on this front are inadequate.
Moscow has issued another nuclear threat: Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council and a senior Putin ally, warned today that any Ukrainian attacks on missile launch sites inside Russia using weapons supplied by the United States and its allies would pose a nuclear risk Moscow's reaction.
Medvedev claimed that Ukrainian military commanders are considering attacking missile launch sites within Russia's borders with long-range missiles supplied by the West. The implication is that Russian missile sites used to launch conventionally armed ballistic missiles against Ukraine would be attacked. Most, if not all, Russian ballistic missiles can be armed with nuclear warheads.
Medvedev wrote on the messaging app Telegram:
“What does this mean? This means only one thing: you risk encountering the measures of paragraph 19 of the Fundamentals of Russian State Policy in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence. This is worth remembering.”
In his 2020 nuclear doctrine statement, paragraph 19 sets out a list of conditions under which the Russian president would consider using a nuclear weapon, including an attack with conventional weapons against Russia, “if the existence of the state is at risk.”
In other nuclear news, South Korea claimed that Ukraine had become a de facto test site for North Korean nuclear missiles. Like Russia, North Korea's ballistic missile designs can be armed with nuclear warheads. It was recently announced that Russia is now using North Korean missiles in the war against Ukraine, as you can read here.
“By exporting missiles to Russia, the DPRK is using Ukraine as a test site for its nuclear-capable missiles,” said South Korea’s U.N. Ambassador Hwang Joon-kook, using North Korea’s official name. The ambassador noted that one of the North Korean-supplied missiles traveled 285 miles, the same distance between a North Korean launch site and the South Korean city of Pusan. “From the ROK [South Korean] “From our perspective, this is a simulated attack,” Hwang said.
The latest version of the Russian UMPK series precision-guided glide bomb kit appears to be the heaviest yet, based on a FAB-1500M-54 free-fall bomb body with a nominal weight of 3,307 pounds. You can read more about the UMPK kit here.
That's it for now. We will update this story as there is more news to report about Ukraine.
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