Donald Trump scored another stunning victory Saturday on his way to the Republican nomination, which could be secured as early as 10 days when big Super Tuesday voting takes place in 15 states across the country. The former president met Nikki Haley in South Carolina, who wasn't helped by being born in a state that elected her governor twice. A position he held between 2011 and 2017 and which enjoyed great popularity.
Haley lost by 20 points despite a season in which she spared no effort or money. However, she has no plans to throw in the towel and is holding on to the 40% who supported her, more than the polls predicted. Her argument remains the same as when she was left alone against Trump in a race that was fielded by 14 candidates: The candidate is selling herself as a necessary alternative to Republicans and independents who fear a second round for the former president , who faces 91 alleged crimes in four separate criminal cases.
More information
Nevertheless, nothing and no one seems able to stop the advance of the Trump battleship at home in 2024. A year in which, if nothing changes dramatically, the United States is heading for a repeat of the duel for the White House, which saw him compete against Joe Biden in 2020. The presidential election will take place on November 5th.
1. Trump wins without breaking his hair too much…
Trump visited the quiet town of Rock Hill last Friday to hold one of his hard-to-explain rallies, where his torrent of words and incoherent arguments, of lies and half-truths, is cheered on by thousands of his believers who revere him as a Messiah It was one of his few forays into South Carolina. And that was the state in which his rival could, a priori, appear strongest. It didn't matter: He won with 60% of the vote without breaking the budget too much. The ex-president seems to realize that he doesn't have to make any great efforts. This is also helped by the fact that he has been spending about half of his time in the dock lately. Since joining the Republican Party in 2015, a formation that was ultimately shaped to his liking, he has shown that, against all odds, he has enormous influence over at least 30% of the electorate. It remains to be seen whether this unprecedented form of campaigning will work unless the fight takes place in front of an engaged public and Democrats and independents also have a say. Currently, the latest polls, which should not be given more importance than necessary eight months before the presidential election, give him a narrow advantage over Biden.
Join EL PAÍS to follow all the news and read without restrictions.
Subscribe to
2. …and win in all areas
Like a tennis player who is good on all fields, Trump has easily won four consecutive victories in situations as diverse as the Iowa caucuses (a close vote in a white and deeply religious Republican state that prides itself on its erratic behavior); the most moderate event of the New Hampshire primary and the caucus/primary duo with a touch of farce that recently took place in Nevada. South Carolina was something different. It celebrates its primaries, “the first in the South,” with two plus points: they almost never fail (since 1980, they've been right for all Republican candidates except on one occasion) and it's a place where, although impeccably Republican, it's different other early dates of the election campaign. Therefore, it is usually considered a more reliable laboratory for where decisions can be made in general elections.
Nikki Halley, on Saturday in Charleston, the city where she gave a speech after learning of her defeat in the South Carolina primary.ERIK S. LESSER (EFE)
3. But Haley isn't throwing in the towel
He had already warned last Tuesday in an unprecedented press conference: Haley had no plans to “go anywhere.” She said this to anticipate defeat in her home state, where she went from city to city to rallies with small groups of voters who were characterized by appreciation for the role she had played as governor and fear of a second coming agreed on Trump. On Saturday, he reiterated that he will not retire until Super Tuesday at the earliest. His critics are calling on him to abandon these efforts to save money and time. The most extreme Trumpism has a conspiracy theory to explain why it wants to continue: that his donors, who have not yet lost patience, are paying to divide the Republican Party and ensure that Biden wins in November. More serious analysts believe that behind her decision is an intention to exploit the fact that she is in the national spotlight to establish herself as an option in the 2028 elections. Additionally, Haley wants to show that a different, more complete Republican Party and moderate, it is possible.
Haley justified herself on Saturday by saying that she is “a woman of her word.” “I will not throw in the towel if a majority of Americans disagree with either Trump or Biden,” he warned, adding that if he did not withdraw, it would only be to avoid a “Soviet-style” election Option on the ballot” in the upcoming primary elections.
4. The support of independents: the 40% who said no to Trump
In the exemplary speech she gave on election night in Charleston, Haley also said after learning of her defeat, “I realize that 40% is not 50%.” He paused to listen to the relieved laughter of his supporters hear, and continued: “But I'm also aware that the 40% is not a tiny group of people.” In other words, Haley sees herself not only as the only possible alternative to Trump, but also as the only one of the two , which Biden can defeat in November. Unless she prevents it, voters will have to choose between a president with one of the lowest popularity ratings in history and the man who managed to overturn the legitimate poll results in 2020 in a rush to attack led at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. The key to his speech, which at times seemed like that of a third party candidate, is that the 40% support achieved in open primaries, especially in the independent vote, a demonstration of what problems await Republicans if they choose Trump's option.
5. Dance of the Candidates… for Vice President
As the path is paved for Trump's early nomination, opinions are heating up over who could join him as his vice presidential running mate in the November election. This weekend it was Tim Scott's turn, African-American Senator from South Carolina, to present his credentials at home. Scott was one of 14 Republicans seeking the nomination, and even though they were competitors, Trump delivered the usual series of insults and humiliations that he reserves for his opponents. However, since he left the race and swallowed all those toads, the senator has become one of the biggest supporters of the idea of the former president returning to the White House. Working in his favor is the alleged impact his election could have on the African-American voter who delivered Biden victory in 2020 and who, according to polls, now appears frustrated with the results of his performance.
Sen. Tim Scott on Friday in Rock Hill, where he appeared for Trump at the massive rally he held in the South Carolina city. SHANNON STAPLETON (Portal)
Other possible names for the position include Ohio Senator and best-selling author JD Vance (Hilbilly), South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem and Congresswoman Elise Stefanik. The three campaigned in secret this Friday at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), which takes place each year near Washington. It used to be a meeting of ideas about the future of the Republican Party, which has recently been transformed into a meeting at the pinnacle of the most uncritical Trumpism.
6. What comes next
The next appointment is next Tuesday in Michigan, where Haley, as announced on Saturday evening, has already left for the election campaign. Trump, for his part, promised another overwhelming victory, relying, he said, on the “support of unions,” a force that should be counted on in this crucial state but which has already publicly chosen Biden. Interest will temporarily shift to the president in this election; It will be interesting to see how his support for Israel in the Gaza war affects him in the place with the country's largest Arab community, which gave him their votes (and much of the presidency) in 2020.
A week later comes Super Tuesday. Primary elections will take place across the country on March 5: 15 states will decide 874 of the 2,429 Republican delegates. To secure the nomination, unless his rival resigns, Trump will need 1,215 delegates: so far he has added 117 to Haley's 17. It is also the date that usually decides the composition of both parties' ballots. Haley hasn't ruled out moving forward after that, but her bet right now is focused on how many of those places, or at least at what percentage, will support her. After that, the rest of the primaries continue almost completely emotionless as the calendar moves forward to the next big date in the Republican campaign. In mid-July, the party convention takes place in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where delegates from all over the country meet to bless their chosen candidate for the White House candidacy.
Follow all the information about the United States elections in our weekly newsletter.
Subscribe to continue reading
Read without limits
_