However, the biggest camp in the new parliament will likely be an anti-Jansa bloc, to which four liberal and left-wing parties have joined forces. It could be critical for Jansa because he has few allies among the smaller parties for a coalition government. On the other hand, Golob, who is starting his new movement practically from scratch, has a good chance of winning the most important center-left parties into a coalition.
Jansa became prime minister in March 2020 after the center-left coalition at the time collapsed and some of his lawmakers defected to his camp. He had previously ruled from 2004 to 2008 and from 2012 to 2013.
APA/AFP/Jure Makovec Newcomer Robert Golob has a good chance of replacing Jansa
Orban’s close ally
Jansa is highly controversial because of his authoritarian style of government. He is a close ally of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Critics accuse him of promoting a restructuring of the state along the lines of Orban. In recent years, he has come under pressure at the EU level for attacks on the judiciary and the media.
Like Orban, Jansa is a political veteran. In the election, he is aiming for his fourth term. Jansa has been repeatedly criticized for trying to bring the media and judiciary under his control. Orban-dependent entrepreneurs have been funding Jansa’s SDS media for several years.
Lower places decide on kingmakers
Polls suggest an exciting race for first place between Jansas SDS and liberal Gibanje Svoboda. For most, though, the fight over the back seats will be almost more important. There are several parties around the four percent barrier to entry into parliament, including potential Jansa coalition partners and their opponents.
Reuters/Borut Zivulovic Election is considered a directional decision
In the symbolically important duel for the electoral victory, former coach Golob takes advantage a few days before the polls. All polls place the neo-politician, who only entered politics at the end of January, ahead of the unpopular head of government. The difference is small in most surveys and is usually in the fluctuation range.
The race is also exciting because Golob tested positive for the corona virus on Monday and therefore had to cancel his appearances in the final sprint of the election campaign. He had traveled across the country on a “freedom bus” in recent weeks. Furthermore, experience from previous elections shows that the SDS has an extremely compact electoral base. Much will also depend on voter participation.
Corruption scandal in Jansa’s coalition partner
The Retired People’s Party (DeSUS), allied with Jansa, is being rocked by a scandal. Four days before parliamentary elections, Agriculture Minister Joze Podgorsek resigned on suspicion of accepting an advantage. Podgorsek is said to have stayed with his wife in a luxury Slovenian hotel owned by a businessman who may have benefited from the decisions of the small party minister.
Investigative portal Necenzurirano.si previously reported that Podgorsek did not have to pay for his stay at the luxury hotel in the Julian Alps. After the portal reported the case, the minister sent him the invoice in the amount of 800 euros and paid it. The KPK anti-corruption authority launched investigations.
DeSUS deputies and other small parties turned their backs on the center-left government of Prime Minister Marjan Sarec in early 2020. In this way, they made it possible for Jansa to take over the government without holding new elections. The “defectors” of the small parties received ministerial and other positions from Jansa.
Which of the 20 parties will you arrive at?
A total of 20 parties and lists are running for election, and political experts expect fewer parties to be represented in the Slovenian parliament in the next legislature.
In addition to the SDS, three parties out of a total of nine parliamentarians can certainly count on entering parliament. According to Ninamedia, the former opposition parties, the Left Party (Levica) and the Social Democrats (SD), each have nine percent of the vote. Co-ruler Christian Democrat NSI (New Slovenia) is expected to earn seven percent.
The protest party CoV Resnica (truth), which according to Ninamedia has reached in recent days, may cause a surprise. The party that led mass protests against the CoV measures in the fall is at 3% and thus within the fluctuation range to enter parliament.
the great tremor
On the other hand, it is likely to be tight for three other parts. The liberal LMS (former Prime Minister Sarec’s list) is four percent. The co-ruling liberal Konkretno party, which is running in the “Let’s Unite Slovenia” electoral alliance, is threatened with being expelled. The electoral alliance is currently at 3.5%. However, taking into account the fluctuation range, Konkretno can also reach parliament.
The situation is similar for the party of former prime minister Alenka Bratusek (SAB), with currently 3.2%. Former NEOS deputy and short-term Slovenian cohesion minister, Angelika Mlinar, also defends the social-liberal opposition party. The nationalist SNS and the pensioners’ party DeSUS, on the other hand, will hardly have a chance to turn back.
Coalition building can be difficult
Two clear fields finally formed during the election campaign: on the one hand, Jansa’s opponents with the newcomer Golob and the four opposition parties SD, Levica, LMS and SAB, which once worked together in parliament in the form of the Coalition of Constitutional Arch (KUL). According to polls, this camp would have a majority in parliament. However, it is unclear who will assume the leadership role after the election.
If Jansa wins the election, however, he will have a much more difficult task of forming a government. As in 2018, he wouldn’t have the coalition partners for that. Left and liberal parties, including Golob, categorically reject cooperation with the SDS. In 2018, Sarec, who came in second, formed a center-left coalition that lasted just over a year. After Sarec threw in the towel in early 2020 due to infighting within the coalition, Jansa managed to win two coalition partners to his side and still play prime minister—for the third time after 2004 and 2012.
Bad grades for the government
Researchers hope that dissatisfaction with Jansa’s government – in the Vox Populi poll, more than 61 percent rate the government’s work as unsuccessful – will be reflected in a higher turnout than in previous elections. In the last parliamentary election in 2018, turnout was 52.6 percent, in 2014 it was even lower at 51.7 percent. Participation on Sunday is expected to be around 60%.
The Slovenian government is also currently under heavy criticism for wanting to cover up the worst prospects for the state’s finances ahead of parliamentary elections. The opposition accuses Jansa’s government of delaying due budget documents in order not to have to talk about a “huge financial hole” immediately before the election, Slovenian media reported. The government intends to present the documents only after the April 24 election.