Spanish voters return to the polls on Sunday. The head of the socialist government has brought the vote forward by six months to counteract the right but also to quench the challenge in his own camp.
A political tactic or a gesture of appeasement towards the Spanish? After the disappointment of the governing coalition in the regional and local elections at the end of May, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called early parliamentary elections. The leader of the Socialists reiterates that he wants to “submit”. [son] democratic mandate before the will of the people”, who is invited to the ballot box in Spain on Sunday 23 July.
Some see other motivations behind this announcement. It must be said that it surprised almost everyone: the prime minister made his decision a few hours after the polls closed, on May 28, surrounded only by his closest collaborators, reports El País. The rest of the government and its radical left allies have not been consulted. “No one expected it, but it fits the personality of Pedro Sanchez: he is a former basketball player who is used to hurrying,” notes Maria Elisa Alonso, political scientist and teacher and researcher at the University of Lorraine.
A “handicap” for the socialists?
“Some will say that he is an excellent strategist but also an opportunist,” summarizes Antoine de Laporte, expert at the Jean Jaurès Foundation. “He conveys the image of a cynical politician whose word cannot be trusted and who is ready to change his position at any moment,” adds Benoît Pellistrandi, historian and preparatory teacher at the Lycée Condorcet in Paris. In December 2019, the socialist leader had therefore announced a government coalition with the Podemos radical left, “while a few months earlier he had vowed never to ally with them,” recalls the historian.
“Pedro Sanchez is a divisive prime minister who is hated by sections of Spanish society. He cannot embark on a journey without being attacked by shouts and jeers.”
Antoine de Laporte, expert at the Jean Jaurès Foundation
at franceinfo
The head of government is irritating the right, as are the senior leaders of Spain’s Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE). “During the campaign for regional and local elections, he constantly distinguished himself to the detriment of local elected representatives and candidates, who were nevertheless valued,” points out Benoît Pellistrandi, author of Les Fractures de l’Espagne (Gallimard, 2022). This excess of communication turned these municipal elections into a referendum against Sanchez: it has become a handicap for the Socialists.
However, it is difficult to attribute sole responsibility for the conservative People’s Party (PP) victory to the prime minister’s personality. Because the PSOE is also burdened by its alliances, especially with the Catalan and Basque separatists. “During the May elections, the Basque party EH Bildu put forward around forty candidates who had been convicted of acts related to the ETA organization,” notes Maria Elisa Alonso. According to RTVE, seven of those jailed for murder eventually gave up.
A positive assessment that is “overshadowed” by the controversy
Living with Podemos wasn’t always easy either. Disagreements within the governing coalition have often been reported in the press, giving the impression of an alliance lacking unity. “Pedro Sanchez carried out several reshuffles and only changed socialist ministers, notes Benoît Pellistrandi. He seemed less the head of government and more the leader of the most powerful party within a two-man executive.”
Socialist Pedro Sanchez and Podemos co-founder Pablo Iglesias sign a coalition agreement on November 12, 2019 in Madrid. (BURAK AKBULUT / ANADOLU AGENCY / AFP)
The left-wing bloc has suffered particularly from controversy over an emblematic text advocated by Podemos entitled “Only a yes is a yes”. With its entry into force at the end of 2022, it puts the concept of consent at the heart of the law on sexual violence, reminds El País. It was supposed to be a major step forward for women’s rights, “but it had unexpected repercussions,” notes Benoît Pellistrandi. The law lowering the minimum sentence for these offenses “has resulted in reduced sentences.” [plus de 1 000] Sex offenders and early release from prison. She has ““The decision was finally revised on the initiative of the Socialists with the support of the PP, which undermined the credibility of the coalition,” the historian continues.
This type of controversy “clouded” the executive branch’s record, according to Judge Benoît Pellistrandi. However, Spain is registering “falling unemployment and one of the lowest inflation rates in Europe,” observes Maria Elisa Alonso. The left-wing coalition has also “passed a historic agreement on labor law, passed a law to regulate rents in response to the severe housing crisis, raised the minimum wage and pensions, created menstrual leave,” the political scientist enumerates.
“In four years, Pedro Sanchez’s government has managed to pass many reforms. But the middle class is not yet aware of these developments in their daily lives and the socialists have not managed to capitalize on these gains.”
Maria Elisa Alonso, teacher and researcher at the University of Lorraine
at franceinfo
After the regional bankruptcy, the prime minister chose “the least bad of the bad solutions,” believes Antoine de Laporte. “He risked his popularity slowly fading until the general elections originally scheduled for December swamped Maria Elisa Alonso. And spurred on by its victory in the May elections, the PP would have constantly attacked the government.” By bringing the election forward by six months, Pedro Sanchez wanted to prevent the right from waging a disastrous electoral campaign for the PSOE.
This maneuver also served to quell “any attempt to question”. [de son leadership] within the Socialist Party,” analyzes Benoît Pellistrandi. Antoine de Laporte confirms that the prime minister is being challenged “by part of the leadership” of the movement. But no one wanted to risk further destabilizing the PSOE by revealing his inner quarrels. “Until July 23, the Socialists had to display a facade of unity,” stresses the expert from the Jean Jaurès Foundation.
“Playing with Fear” of the Far Right
By bringing forward the date of the parliamentary elections, Pedro Sanchez therefore forced his party, but also his allies on the far left, to unite. Months of negotiations between Podemos and Sumar, a new movement founded by Labor Minister Yolanda Diaz, had dragged on. The urgency eventually led them to a fragile alliance that may allow the progressive coalition to remain in power, broadcaster RTVE reports.
According to the polls, neither the PP nor the PSOE will manage to win an absolute majority of 176 of the 350 seats in the House of Representatives, Spain’s lower house. “You will need a coalition. The political force that comes in third place will be decisive: either the far-right Vox party or Sumar,” decodes Maria Elisa Alonso. “Pedro Sanchez will try to exploit the fear of Vox to remobilize his voters,” said the political scientist.
Far-right Vox party leader Santiago Abascal and Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez in the background during a session of the Spanish Parliament in Madrid December 3, 2019. (PIERRE-PHILIPPE MARCOU / AFP)
From the first days of this flash campaign, the Prime Minister made it clear that there was “no difference” between Vox and the Conservatives. The more than 130 alliance agreements signed by these movements at the end of the regional and local elections, which according to Radio Cadena Ser “show the extent to which the PP accepts the ideology of the ultra-right”, could lend weight to this claim.
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The socialist leader’s bet is risky, however, because the gap between the left and right blocs is small. According to El Pais, the PSOE alone has only 28.7% of the voting intentions behind the PP (32.9%). And his ally Sumar (13.7%) is neck and neck with Vox (13.5%). “Pedro Sanchez knows he is cornered: either he loses power or he has four more years at the helm of Spain. He has nothing to lose,” reveals Antoine de Laporte. Can this gamble pay off? “If the PSOE wins the elections, internal strife will subside, although fundamental disagreements between the Prime Minister and certain leaders remain,” says the Jean Jaurès Foundation expert. Whatever the outcome, “The victory and defeat of the Socialists in the general elections will also be those of Pedro Sanchez.”