As China put it, it was a mutually beneficial deal aimed at bringing peace and stability to the Solomon Islands, a country with a population less than half the size of Manhattan, which has been hit by violent protests over the past year was shaken.
But other countries saw it differently.
For Australia, New Zealand and the United States, it was Beijing’s latest power play in an ongoing struggle for influence in the Pacific – a move some say threatens the region’s stability.
Speculation as to what would be included in the agreement had increased after an unconfirmed, leaked draft of the agreement appeared online last month.
Some feared the deal could materialize Canberra’s worst fears: the construction of a Chinese military base in the Solomon Islands, a first for China in the Pacific. Australia and the US were so concerned that they sent delegations to the Pacific island in hopes of stopping the deal.
But China announced the deal was signed Tuesday before the US delegation even had a chance to land.
Although details of the final deal have not been released, some observers say the deal makes Australia less secure and threatens to further destabilize the Solomon Islands, where there has already been backlash over the government’s close relationship with Beijing.
But political and security fears aside, experts say the situation is a reality check for Australia and its partners that they must adopt a different approach to China’s growing influence.
“Australia and the United States are still unaware of the reality of Chinese power and how we are going to deal with it,” said Hugh White, a professor emeritus of strategic studies at the Australian National University and previously a senior adviser to Australia’s defense minister and prime minister. “Both in Canberra and in Washington, they think that somehow we can make China disappear and put China back in its box.”
How the pact came about
Concerns about the pact had been floating around for weeks.
According to a leaked draft document – which CNN was unable to verify – Solomon Islands would have the option to request police or military personnel from China to maintain social order or help with disaster relief.
The agreement appeared to relate to violent protests that rocked the country’s capital, Honiara, in November last year, sparked in part by anger over the government’s decision to sever ties with Taiwan and swap allegiances with Beijing.
Protesters targeted parts of Honiara’s Chinatown, prompting Sogavare to appeal to Australia for help under a bilateral security deal the two countries signed in 2017.
From the Solomon Islands’ perspective, the separate deal with China might have appealed because it allowed the country to diversify its security ties and capitalize on political conduct in the region, said Tarcisius Kabutaulaka, a U.S.-based political scientist at the University of Hawaii Solomon Islands.
But others fear the deal could be the first stage of a larger plan – to establish a permanent Chinese military presence on the islands.
The reaction on Tuesday The announcement of a signed pact came quickly.
In a joint statement, the US, Japan, Australia and New Zealand said the pact posed “serious risks to a free and open Indo-Pacific”.
Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare on Wednesday insisted the deal does not include permission for China to set up a military base, urging critics to respect the country’s sovereign interests. “We entered into an agreement with China with our eyes wide open, guided by our national interests,” he said.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin stressed that the “open, transparent and inclusive” deal was “not anti-third party.”
But despite the assurances, there are still few details about what has been signed – and viewers say that in itself is worrying.
“There’s still a lot we don’t know about what the agreement itself actually says and what it will lead to,” said White of the Australian National University.
Political analyst Kabutaulaka said he thought it unlikely China would build a conventional military base in the Solomon Islands as it would create a lot of “negative publicity” for Beijing inside and outside the island nation.
But experts say that doesn’t mean China won’t have a military presence on the island — of some form.
If China has the ability to bring ships and military personnel to the Solomon Islands, as the unconfirmed draft document envisages, then there is no real need for one physical military base, Kabutaulaka said.
Mihai Sora, an expert on Australian Pacific foreign policy at Australian think tank Lowy Institute, pointed to Djibouti as a country that has signed a security agreement that has evolved into a naval base that Beijing describes as a logistics facility.
The prospect of a Chinese base in the Pacific is troubling for the US, which also has military bases in the region that are becoming more strategically important as China expands its military presence in the South China Sea. It’s also worrying for Australia, which may face the prospect of Chinese ships docking not far from home – the Solomons are about 1,000 miles from Australia’s northeast coast.
“It’s probably true that it would mean Australia would be less secure because of this deal,” Kabutaulaka said.
But, says White, a Chinese military base in the small nation will only become a real problem for Australia during a possible conflict with China. The importance of each base depends on how well Australia manages its relationship with China – a relationship that has become increasingly strained in recent years.
“In practical terms… I don’t think this is doing nearly as much damage to Australia’s security as a lot of people are doing,” White said. “It’s a significant problem when we’re in a big war.”
What the future brings
The lack of public details about what is included in the pact is worrying not only for Solomon Islands’ international partners. Within the small nation, uncertainty about what it contains has already drawn criticism.
“I realize that the vast majority of ordinary Solomon Islanders do not want a base here, nor do they want this deal. China doesn’t want a majority here at all,” the nation’s opposition leader, Matthew Wale, told the Strategic Policy Institute’s Australian The Strategist.
Some have suggested that the deal itself could increase tensions between those who support closer ties with China and those who don’t.
“The discourse on geopolitical competition is creating divisions that could become troubling domestically,” Kabutaulaka said.
“The international community, and Solomon Islands in particular, must also address the challenges internally, which then led to the things we saw last November, which then in turn created the need for Solomon Islands to sign the security agreement with China. “
These challenges include economic inequality among the islanders, with some venting their anger at Chinese companies they see as a symbol of closer ties with the mainland.
But the deal also sends a much bigger message: that the approaches taken by Australia and its allies in the region are not working.
Australia has long hailed the idea of the “Pacific family”. But, according to White, Australia pays little attention to the Pacific unless there are questions about security. Moreover, Australia and its allies are still mired in the past, imagining that China’s power can be minimized and those countries remain the dominant powers in the region, he said.
“In recent years, Australia has increasingly moved into a position where our approach to managing the rise of China is to try and prevent it,” he said. “It will not work. Australia must learn to live with Chinese power – and that includes China’s expanded influence in the South West Pacific.”
“It’s just a challenge for us to improve our game to keep our influence there – and that’s what we should be doing anyway.”