For nearly a decade, Texas Democrats have been saying they are on the verge of making their state competitive, even though no Democrat has won a statewide race since 1994.
Tuesday’s primary results showed Democrats still have a long way to go.
With more than three-quarters of the vote counted, the gubernatorial nominee voted nearly 800,000 more Republicans than Democrats—a gap much larger than in 2018, the last midterm primary in Texas.
To be sure, the Republicans had more competitive primaries than the Democrats. Gov. Greg Abbott’s contest with Republican rivals on the right may have been more of a draw than Beto O’Rourke’s smooth path to the Democratic nomination. And Democrats will quickly notice that primary voter turnout doesn’t always predict a big turnout in November.
However, the Republicans have shown to be full of energy – even when divided between the far right and mainstream factions – and hardly concede their power in the state.
Abbott’s right turn paid off.
Prior to this year, Mr. Abbott had never competed in a competitive Republican primary in his 25-year political career. But in a moment of conservative energy, with Republicans furious over the 2020 election and President Biden’s immigration policies, a section of Republicans bet that Mr. Abbott would be vulnerable to a challenger on the right.
It turns out they were wrong.
Armed with a $60 million war chest, Mr. Abbott made short work of seven Republicans with over two-thirds of the vote. It was a victory for which he had been preparing for a whole year. Mr. Abbott has spent most of the past year calming down the state’s conservative base by imposing new restrictions on abortion, relaxing gun laws and imposing new restrictions on how Texas schools teach the history of racism. Days before the primary, Mr. Abbott ordered state health authorities to classify the treatment commonly given to transgender teens as “child abuse.”
Mr. Abbott’s track record has been a stark demonstration of how a major threat can help the right wing of the Republican Party advance the agenda even in a Democratic-leaning state.
Guide to the 2022 midterm elections
In the general election, Mr. Abbott will once again be the clear favorite, this time against Mr. O’Rourke, the Democrat and former congressman who narrowly lost the 2018 race to Senator Ted Cruz and then flopped in the 2020 presidential primaries.
Mr. Abbott is said to have presidential ambitions if Mr. Trump does not run again in 2024. The next step on this path for him will be a decisive victory in November. In a year in which the Republicans are expected to do well, he will need a show of force in Texas to prove he can appeal to voters across the country.
Beto O’Rourke put up a big number.
Four years ago, when he ran for the Senate, Mr. O’Rourke won just 61 percent of the vote in the 2018 Senate primary, even though he ran against little-known, poorly funded candidates.
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March 2, 2022 2:06 AM ET
Now that Mr. O’Rourke has become the most famous figure in Texas Democratic politics, he has easily dominated a field of four major Democratic opponents.
Mr. O’Rourke garnered more than 90 percent of the primary vote, winning nearly all of Texas’s 254 counties after losing 76 of them four years ago.
Mr. O’Rourke’s sweeping victory was a reminder that he enters this race as a very different candidate than the plucky underdog who became a national star in 2018. Now Mr. O’Rourke is running for governor, has a big name and the largest foundation in the state. -uplifting network, but also baggage from his previous races. His call for the government to confiscate some of the firearms will continue to feature in Republican attacks on him, and he will also have to overcome the GOP’s significant statewide advantage.
Trump picked the (easy) winners.
As the first primary of 2022, Texas announced that it would be the dominant theme of the primary season: Can Donald J. Trump play a kingmaker?
Trump’s track record has been mixed. The former president endorsed 33 Texas Republicans ahead of their primaries, but many expected virtually all of them to win before Trump’s nod. As of early Wednesday morning, all of Trump’s congressional candidates were one step ahead to win their nominations.
But other races have raised doubts that only Mr. Trump’s approval can secure victory. Attorney General Ken Paxton, backed by Mr. Trump, and Dawn Buckingham, Mr. Trump’s choice for land commissioner, both went to a runoff in May after failing to win more than 50 percent of the vote.
“Big Night in Texas!” Trump said late Tuesday evening. “All 33 candidates supported by Trump either won the primary or are in a significant lead in the event of a runoff.”
There were also signs that it might be dangerous for Republicans to go against Trump. Rep. Van Taylor, a two-term Dallas suburb who voted to confirm the 2020 election results and for a commission to investigate the January 6 attack on the United States Capitol, was in danger of being forced into a runoff as votes were still counted at the start. environment. Mr. Taylor outperformed his competitors by almost 10 times.
The figure could spook incumbent Republicans, who will face more severe tests from Trump-backed adversaries in the coming months. Representative Liz Cheney of Wyoming, Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, and impeachment Republicans from Michigan, South Carolina, and Washington State are all vulnerable and obsessed by Mr. Trump.
Jasmine Crockett, the state legislator who co-led the Texas Democrats’ flight to Washington last summer to delay Republican voting laws, has a big lead but looks destined for a runoff in the Dallas district. Ms. Crockett was endorsed by Representative Eddie Bernice Johnson, who has represented the district for 35 years. Miss Crockett succumbed to approval: her campaign slogan was: “Pass the torch, kindle the fire.”
Together, Mr. Casar, Ms. Cisneros and Ms. Crockett have revitalized the liberal wing of the House of Representatives and the Progressive Democrats. Last month, New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez traveled to Texas to campaign for Mr. Casar and Ms. Cisneros.