The signals are red for François Legault, whose support is falling in the voting intentions in favor of Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s PQ. If elections were held today, the CAQ would have to settle for a minority government.
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The tectonic plates of Quebec’s political scene are shifting. Although they are still in the lead, CAQ forces now only have 30% of the vote, down four points in a month and 11 points since the election, according to a Léger/Le Journal poll. TVA emerges.
“This is the worst result since her time in power,” says pollster Jean-Marc Léger.
The points lost by the CAQ are transferred directly to the Parti Québécois, which increases its support accordingly.
Quebecers appear to have found a “real alternative” to the Legault government as several sovereigntists return to the fold, the pollster’s president stresses.
With approval from 26% of voters, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s troops are breathing down the CAQ’s neck. The CAQ is just four points ahead of its closest rival among French-speaking countries. “We have a minority government with such a result,” Mr. Léger said.
PSPP best PM, ahead of Legault
And François Legault is no stranger to this decline. His star is fading in the eyes of Quebecers, who now favor Paul St-Pierre Plamondon as the best prime minister.
For the first time, the CAQ leader is less popular than his party. Only 23% of citizens see him as the political leader best suited to fill the post of prime minister.
Voters’ hearts are now beating more for the PQ leader, who has been on the rise since his party’s historic victory in the Jean Talon by-election. “Quebecers like chefs who are winners,” emphasizes the president of the Léger company.
In 2017, the triumph of Geneviève Guilbault at the helm of Louis-Hébert gave wings to the CAQ, which then managed to push the Liberals from power. The addition of Jean-Talon also increasingly appears to be a trigger for change.
“The victory in Jean-Talon liberated the sovereignist voice. The PQ was a loser for many years,” emphasizes Jean-Marc Léger.
He also attributes much of the CAQ’s decline and dissatisfaction with the government to the inflation crisis.
Beware the CAQ sovereigntists
Sovereignty is stable at 35% of voters, leading the pollster to assess that the PQ has the potential to further increase its voting intentions.
Above all, there are many independents in the CAQ. The Prime Minister’s recent harsh attacks on Quebec’s fallout could benefit PSPP.
“Among the Caquistes who are sovereigntists and who hear Francois Legault making such a harsh speech about sovereignty, there is a risk that this will have an impact on his clientele,” analyzes the pollster.