The PQ is emerging from the shadows and enlisting support from the CAQ, which should intensify regional fighting, reveals a new Léger-Le Journal-TVA-Qub poll.
The first debate has shifted the needles of electoral intentions by a few points for all parties except the CAQ, which remains at 38% despite several yellow indicators, shows the poll conducted from September 16 to 18, i.e. after the Face -at-Facing VAT
Voting intentions of the provinces
38% of Quebecers would choose Legault’s CAQ.
If there were state elections today, which party would you vote for?
Status 09/19/2022
Don’t know/refusal: 1%
“The CAQ, even if it says its main opponent is QS, has four opponents,” said Christian Bourque, vice president of Léger. “Some larger counties will be tighter than we thought at the start of this campaign. »
The Parti Québécois, which started with 9%, is still at the bottom but their voting intentions now climb to 13%.
“Since the beginning of the campaign, it’s still +4 for the PQ […] There is actually some movement going on,” adds Mr. Bourque.
The other three parties win or lose a point and all get 16% of the voting intent. This is also the first time that Éric Duhaime’s Conservative Party has drawn level with QS and the PLQ in this campaign.
In the Quebec region in particular, an increase in PQ comes at the expense of CAQ, which finds itself with 36% of the favor, making the fight against Éric Duhaime even tighter (25%).
development of voting intentions
Status 09/19/2022
A good debate
Leaders Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s fine performance at Face-à-Face would not be unrelated to his side’s improvement in points.
“There are two winners in this debate: Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois,” says Mr. Bourque.
According to the 1046 respondents, Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon had the second best performance, just behind Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois. However, it should be noted that the PSPP takes first place among the over 55s, well ahead of François Legault.
“It’s a key indicator of the PQ leader and a yellow light for CAQ members among voters that the CAQ needs to hold and continue to attract,” explains Mr. Bourque. But last week the prime minister was eclipsed by PSPP. »
François Legault, who admitted he could do better in the next debate, came second with 9%. The proportion is the same for those over 55 years of age.
Second choice
22% of Quebecers would choose Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon’s Parti Québécois.
Which of the following provincial parties would be your second choice?
Status 09/19/2022
Other: 32%
Popular opposition leaders
GND and PSPP are also seen as preferred opposition leaders by 28% and 21% of respondents respectively.
“At the beginning of the campaign when we said, ‘Will PSPP emerge from the shadows?’ Well it’s done. He was fourth at the start of the campaign and is now second. »
Who had the best campaign last week, PSPP, GND and François Legault all get the best score of 16%.
Best objection to the CAQ
28% of Quebecers prefer Gabriel Nadeau Dubois.
Which of the current opposition leaders do you prefer?
Status 09/19/2022
QA
Gabriel
Nadeau Dubois
QP
Paul Saint Pierre
Plamondon
PCQ
Eric
Duhaime
QLP
Dominika
English
Don’t know / rejection: 23%
yellow lights
For François Legault, however, this result is not good news. “If you have 38% of the voting intentions but only 16% of the people say you have the best campaign… for many it’s ‘right’ at best,” believes Mr. Bourque.
“Of those who would vote for the CAQ today, less than half (43%) say François Legault has the best campaign,” adds Mr. Bourque.
“All is not rosy on the side of the former,” he says.
Best Campaign
Several party leaders are tied.
Which of the Chiefs had the best campaign last week?
Status 09/19/2022
CAQ
Francis
Right
QP
Paul Saint Pierre
Plamondon
QA
Gabriel
Nadeau Dubois
PCQ
Eric
Duhaime
QLP
Dominika
English
Don’t know / rejection: 34%
The fall continues for the Liberal Party and Dominique Anglade. Just 3% of respondents believe she won the debate and just 6% believe she had the best campaign last week.
“It’s a difficult campaign, there were several pitfalls […] It seems there’s always something among liberals that doesn’t come up the same way,” added Mr. Bourque.
winner of the debate
18% of Quebecers believe Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois won the debate.
Who do you think won the Heads of State and Government Debate to be broadcast on TVA/LCN on Thursday 15 September?
Status 09/19/2022
QA
Gabriel
Nadeau Dubois
QP
Paul Saint Pierre
Plamondon
PCQ
Eric
Duhaime
CAQ
Francis
Right
QLP
Dominika
English
Don’t know / rejection: 45%
METHODOLOGY
The web poll was conducted September 16-18, 2022 among 1,046 Quebecers ages 18 and older who are eligible to vote in Quebec. Respondents were required to be able to express themselves in French or English and were randomly selected via LEO’s online panel. The maximum margin of error for a sample of 1046 respondents is plus or minus 3%, 19 out of 20.
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