South Africa’s foreign policy dilemma is now resolved as Russian President Vladimir Putin will no longer attend the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) summit in Johannesburg on August 22-24.
There has been much speculation about the possible consequences for South Africa if Putin were to fly in for the summit.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague has issued an arrest warrant against Putin for alleged responsibility for war crimes by Russian forces in the Ukraine war.
Instead, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will travel to South Africa for the summit.
Arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court for kidnapping Ukrainian children by Russia
This browser does not support the video element.
Ramaphosa feared war with Russia
South Africa is a signatory to the Rome Statute, which established the ICC in 2002 and on the basis of which the arrest warrant for Putin was issued in March. Therefore, South Africa should have arrested the Russian President if he had appeared at the BRICS summit.
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa had asked the ICC for an exemption on the grounds that imprisonment could endanger “the security, peace and order of the state”.
He also told the court: “It would be against our constitution to risk a war with Russia.”
South Africa and Russia are close allies.
The 2022 BRICS summit hosted by China was held virtually. Credit: Li Tao/Xinhua/picture Alliance
Having Putin in South Africa would have put the country in a difficult position, said Cape Town-based political analyst Daniel Silke.
“There would have been an opportunity to comply with the arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court and that would have embarrassed South Africa,” he told DW. “Given the strong bond between the two countries, the Russian side has decided not to strain ties that are important to Moscow.”
According to Ramaphosa, the decision was mutual.
Putin would have disrupted the BRICS agenda
South Africa’s close ties with Russia date back to the apartheid era, when the current African National Congress (ANC) was a Soviet-backed liberation movement.
South Africa sees itself as neutral in the Russian war in Ukraine and plays a leading role in African mediation efforts.
Why Africa wants to mediate in Russia’s war with Ukraine
This browser does not support the video element.
South Africa’s main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), had put pressure on the government to comply with the ICC and arrest Putin on entry into the country.
However, according to Silke, it was always unlikely that the Russian President would actually attend the BRICS summit in person. His presence would have overshadowed the emerging markets’ agenda, which he believed included finding ways to offset Western influence.
“And that’s what Russia and China want,” Silke told DW. “That is the key to the agreement that was finally reached.”
South Africa risks the “wrath” of the West
International pressure and the arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court have prevented Putin from venturing beyond Russia: “It has restricted its freedom of movement and no doubt this will limit its freedom of movement in many other parts of the world,” Silke said.
Political economist Ronak Golpaldas told Portal that South Africa can now assert its position as a rule of law government. He added that the law clearly affects a country’s domestic and international obligations.
He said South Africa should have arrested Putin upon his arrival. “Had that not happened, Pretoria would have been in deep trouble – not only in terms of the rule of law, but also in terms of the response of the business community and the international community,” Golpaldas said.
The impact on financial markets would also likely have been profound, experts say. The South African rand has already been severely weakened amid a weak economy and an unprecedented and protracted energy crisis.
Foreign ministers of the BRICS countries held talks in Cape Town a few weeks before the summit in August 2023. Image: Press Service of the Russian Foreign Ministry/TASS/picture alliance
Doudou Sidibe, a professor of international relations at Gustave Eiffel University in Paris, said that if South Africa had refused to arrest Putin, it would have drawn “the ire or criticism of Western countries”.
Vincent Niebede contributed to this report.
Edited by: Benita van Eyssen