BRUSSELS – A day before South Africa confronted Israel with genocide allegations at the UN's top court, Belgium's outspoken development minister publicly laid out the stark divisions within the EU.
Caroline Gennez asked German officials a rhetorical question in an interview with a Belgian weekly: “Do you really want to be on the wrong side of history twice?” Will we continue to stand by and watch ethnic cleansing? Surely that was 'never again'?”
Germany, which has offered unyielding support to Israel since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, stood in stark contrast to public statements from officials from Ireland, Spain and Belgium in recent months.
In November, German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck defended his country's ties with Israel, speaking openly about the ties as “special” ones and saying they stem from what he called a historic responsibility after the Holocaust. “It was my grandparents’ generation that wanted to eradicate Jewish life in Germany and Europe,” he said.
According to Gaza's Health Ministry, Israel's airstrikes and ground operations in Gaza in response to the Hamas attack have killed more than 22,000 Palestinians in nearly 100 days, leaving a growing gap for agreement between the 27 EU member states.
In light of Iran-backed Houthi rebel attacks on ships in the Red Sea in solidarity with the Palestinians and Israel's recent assassination of a senior Hamas leader in Beirut, South Africa is suing Israel on European territory in The Hague, accusing it of one of the most serious crimes committed by a country can be accused – exposes these divisions.
Although the EU has agreed in the past on broader issues such as a two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians, it is struggling to find common ground on Israel's current operations in Gaza, experts say.
The bloc is so divided, they added, that it is useless as a power broker.
“I cannot in my entire life imagine a scenario in which Josep Borrell would resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict [problem]. I think it’s below zero,” said Anders Persson, a political scientist at Linnaeus University in Sweden, referring to the EU’s top diplomat.
Billing for less
In the nearly 100 days since the Hamas attack, EU officials and member states have struggled to agree on their stance as Israel's operations turned the besieged enclave into a humanitarian crisis. Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen rushed to Israel in the days after the attack, while Borrell took to social media to call on Israel to show restraint as it bombarded Gaza with thousands of bombs.
Individual European countries have often played a role in offsetting unwavering U.S. support for Israel. But when the 27 European capitals, each with its unique history and ties to the region, have to agree on a common language, the Brussels compromise machine will run into trouble (a statement from EU leaders issued a week after the Hamas attacks was published, was clearly short). how little they could agree). In contrast, the United States is actively preparing a response to a potentially larger regional conflict.
“I cannot in my entire life imagine a scenario in which Josep Borrell would resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict [problem]. I think it's below zero,” said Anders Persson, a political scientist at Linnaeus University in Sweden, referring to the EU's top diplomat Khaled Desouki/AFP via Getty Images
“We are in a state where we settle for less, don't do too much, we watch the US and then take an opinion,” said a French diplomat who, like others quoted in this article, was granted anonymity to speak openly.
Sven Kühn von Burgsdorff, the former EU mission chief in Palestine, said the EU made a conscious decision not to exert its influence on Israel, for example in the association agreement that both sides signed. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “always tried to play member states off against each other and never took the EU seriously because he knew we were divided on a number of important issues,” von Burgsdorff said.
In many European countries, the war has divided their own society and anti-Semitic incidents are increasing. French President Emmanuel Macron, whose country has Europe's largest Jewish community (nearly 500,000) and one of Europe's largest Muslim communities (estimated at 5 million), expressed fears that the conflict could be exported to France.
These divisions come at a time when Europe was already grappling with rising far-right sentiment in the run-up to the European elections in early June. Polls show that the far-right Identity and Democracy group is expected to become the third largest group in the European Parliament. These parties were already betting on Europe's struggle to control illegal migration and the cost of living crisis. Now there is a risk that the war between Israel and Hamas will fuel tensions in European countries with large Muslim populations.
“We will not spend political capital on this, the positions are so different and irreconcilable. And it is not the highest priority in public opinion in the run-up to the European elections,” said the French diplomat.
Serious allegations
The International Court of Justice (ICJ), which arbitrates cases between states, will hear South Africa's case against Israel on Thursday and Friday.
Peter Stano, spokesman for EU foreign and security policy, said that while the EU supports the International Court of Justice, it “does not comment on cases pending there.”
Germany, one of Israel's strongest supporters in the EU, said through a spokesman that “the claim that Israel is committing genocide in the Gaza Strip is false and not covered by the law.” [U.N. Genocide] convention.”
Austria, another EU country that has shown unwavering support for Israel, told POLITICO through its foreign ministry that “the accusation of genocide as a 'crime of crimes' is extremely serious and should not be made lightly,” but at the same time “has currently no plans to participate in the South Africa-Israel process.”
Countries like Ireland, Spain and Belgium have historically been more critical of Israel.
There are several governing parties in Belgium urge to join the case of South Africa in The Hague. Deputy Prime Minister Petra De Sutter said Belgium was relatively isolated in its position in the conflict within the EU. Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar has ruled out joining South Africa against Israel, seen as a sign of how unpredictable the outcome of the trial is.
While the hearing is a first step in a longer process that could take years, the ICJ could issue interim measures such as calling for a ceasefire or humanitarian corridors, Palestinian Ambassador to South Africa Hanan Jarrar told POLITICO.
Jarrar said if Israel ignores a court decision, it will become more difficult to maintain Europe's fragmented stance. “Even European countries will find it difficult to justify their support for Israel… Adherence to the principles of supporting human rights is strong in Europe,” she argued.
Israel is enlisting support and is confident that South Africa's accusations are not true, said Haim Regev, Israel's ambassador to the EU and NATO.
He emphasized that Israel is waging a war against Hamas and not against the Palestinians. “We do not intentionally harm anyone or attempt to harm anyone [person] “Regardless, we have no such plan,” he told POLITICO. Comments from some hardline ministers calling for the deportation of Palestinians do not reflect the Israeli line, he added.
When European leaders last met in mid-December, a group of four leaders – from Spain, Belgium, Ireland and Malta – called on their counterparts to have a “serious debate” on Gaza and argued , the “credibility of the EU is at stake”. ” However, EU leaders failed to agree on a new common language on Gaza, particularly, but not only, because of the resistance of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, four diplomats said. But “in general the appetite was very low,” said one of them.
The longer the war in Gaza drags on, the more complicated a common European response is likely to become. But two diplomats told POLITICO they believe the war appears to have entered a new phase after Israel bombed the Gaza Strip for weeks and Israel announced it would launch more targeted, specific military operations in the coming weeks.
Anthony Gardner, former US ambassador to the EU, stressed that even if the EU made an effort to formulate more unified statements, it would still be on the sidelines, with only the US and some regional actors able to make an impression leave the ground.
So far there are no plans for European leaders to discuss the war when they meet for a special summit in Brussels in early February, an EU official said.
“For the most part, Europe is simply not a player in this conflict and is struggling with this reality,” Gardner said.
Clea Caulcutt contributed reporting from Paris. Pieter Haeck and Paula Andres Richart contributed reporting from Brussels.
CORRECTION: This article has been updated to correct the spelling of Sven Kühn von Burgsdorff's name.