The Rosario Stock Exchange estimates Argentina’s wheat harvest this year is expected to fall by 50%, from 22.5 million tons to just 11.8/11.4 million tons. Based on this, TF Agroecoómica believes that the scenario could lower the price of Brazilian soybeans in the near future.
“The 11.1 million tons of wheat that is no longer produced in Argentina would bring about $4.55 billion into the treasury, which no longer flows into the national currency. And as we all know, our neighbor suffers from a severe shortage of dollars to finance its imports and meet its international obligations,” he comments.
In terms of Brazilian prices, what happened in September of the same year could be happening now. “In the last month of September 2022, Brazil shipped 4,294,000 tons of soybeans for export versus 5,945,000 tons shipped in August, down 1.65 million tons precisely due to oversupply and more competitive prices (thanks to the artificial Reduction). of the country’s dollar exchange rate) offered by Argentina.
As a result, prices in Brazil fell instead of developing: in IjuíRS they rose from R$186/bag on September 1 to R$185 on September 30; in CascavelPR from R$ 168 to R$ 163 and in Rondonópolis from R$ 169 to R$ 165,” he adds.
In Argentina, the country’s analysts are already expecting a new issue of “Dolar Soy” for the month of January, as happened last September, which expects an estimated turnover of 5 billion dollars for the country. Barchart’s US website reported that “the Argentine government may announce another peso/dollar deal that halted farmer sales in October. This means they can look forward to a more favorable exchange rate.”