WASHINGTON — U.S. Space Force officials will sit down with industry executives in Los Angeles this week to discuss the intricacies of the upcoming procurement of space launches for national security.
The companies are awaiting details on Space Force’s plan to acquire new launch providers for up to 70 missions planned for 2025-2034.
“It’s going to be exciting,” Col. Douglas Pentecost, deputy program director for secure access to space, told reporters Feb. 24.
The Space Force released two draft tenders for Phase 3 of the dual-pronged National Security Space Launch (NSSL) on Feb 16. One is for low range launch missions and the other for the most demanding heavy lift launches.
Following this week’s industry meetings, a second draft RFP will be issued in May and a final one this summer. The Space Force will then spend about a year evaluating bids.
We are targeting summer 2024 contract awards – Col. Douglas Pentecost
United Launch Alliance and SpaceX won NSSL Phase 2 five-year contracts in 2020 to fly approximately 35 missions.
For phase 3, the Space Force plans between 60 and 70 missions. About 30 of these will be less demanding “Lane 1” launches that could be performed by emerging launch providers with mid-size vehicles. The other 40 in Lane 2 would be heavy-lift, high-orbit missions carrying the most sensitive military and intelligence satellites.
- Track 1 runs from 2025 to 2034 with a base period of five years plus a five-year option. Bids are solicited annually throughout the contract period, so there are opportunities to get new businesses off the ground. These launches could be made from non-traditional spaceports.
- Gauge 2 requires certified national security launchers flying from the east and west ranges. The contract period runs from 2025 to 2029. As in NSSL Phase 2, two winners will be selected, with the top scorer receiving 60% of the missions.
- Based on market research and discussions with launch providers, Pentecost said there could be at least four new competitors in Phase 3: Rocket Lab, ABL Space, Relativity Space and Blue Origin. These companies would compete in the more “risk tolerant” Lane 1, although Blue Origin could have a shot at Lane 2 if New Glenn completes three flights and is certified.
- Incumbents ULA and SpaceX would be eligible to compete on either track.
Commercial vs. military demands
Launch companies will be busy deploying commercial mega-constellations for years to come, but the Space Force isn’t worried about a predicted supply shortage, Pentecost said.
Much of the near term launch supply has been gobbled up by Amazon’s space internet project Kuiper, which is sourcing 83 launches on ULA’s Vulcan Centaur, Blue Origin’s New Glenn and Arianespace’s Ariane 6.
Though NSSL launch providers are contractually obligated to prioritize national security missions, the Space Force tries to be flexible, Pentecost said.
“We have a really good partnership with our launch service providers,” he said. “You know that we actually have priority. And we can bump a commercial payload. But we don’t want that because we know we’re using their commercial business. So we’re working with industry and NASA to make sure no one is impacted.”
“We’ve never really had a problem arranging our schedule and commercial schedule,” he said. There are plans to increase launch capacity at Cape Canaveral on the east coast and at Vandenberg Space Force Base on the west coast, which will help speed up the cadence.
Take risks with new providers
Lane 1 will essentially be a broad and open competition. To be eligible, a company doesn’t have to be fully certified as an NSSL provider but must have a vehicle that has already flown into orbit, said Col. Chad Melone, senior materials manager for mission solutions for the Space Force’s space acquisition delta.
“This is to ensure that we don’t award contracts to paper rockets,” he said.
Companies moving from small to medium-sized launch vehicles, for example, are talking about launching dozens of tons, and could presumably compete to put a plane carrying small satellites into low Earth orbit for the space development agency.
As bids are received for Lane 1, the NSSL program will work with SDA or other customers launching small satellites into low earth orbit and assess the risk of flying a newly developed vehicle.
“SDA is probably a great example because they have a strong constellation,” and the agency plans to launch dozens of satellites each year, Melone said.
Commercially propagated constellations are what’s driving launch demand now, Melone said. “We have spoken at length with the companies and investors and we have heard that several companies are chasing commercial demand for full aircraft deployments of these highly common configurations.”
The government doesn’t know when these companies will be ready and has yet to familiarize itself with the specifics of their launch systems, so the Lane 1 contract allows for “tiered mission assurance,” Melone said, and their risk profile will be based on their maturity technology and other factors.
“Track 1 really springs from a need for warfighters as the architecture transitions from single high value assets to more proliferating constellations,” he said. “We believe that Lane 1 offers resiliency through the variety of systems.”