Chronicle of Michel Messager
Delays are commonplace in space tourism, and the recent one involving the race to the moon is no exception to the rule.
In addition to the failure of Peregrine, the lunar module that was supposed to mark the return of an American space probe to the moon, several incidents and situations confirm this delay.
The moon for 2025, 2026? The answer remains open to perspectives on the current situation.
The race to the moon is behind schedule… – DepositPhotos.com
The space industry had set a goal of returning to the moon in 2024.
As we wrote in our August 1, 2024 Back-to-School column: “More than ever, competition between the United States and China is increasing with the Artemis program on the one hand and the ILRS International Lunar Research Station program on the other Page to make headlines.” …preparations for Artemis continue, as confirmed by NASA, in November 2024 three men (Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover and Jeremy Hansen) and a woman (Christina Koch) will make a manned Earth-Moon journey there and back, the first of which is in the 21st century. »
It is important to note that the Space Year 2024 begins with a failure: that of the mission that was supposed to deliver the Peregrine lander to the lunar surface with the Vulcan rocket.
Peregrine's failure
“It was clear right from the start of the mission that the risk of failure was 50 percent,” assures Peter Wurz, astrophysicist at the University of Bern.
The Peregrine lander was part of the first mission under the Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program, NASA's new system in which missions are entrusted to external service providers, in this case the Pittsburg company Astrobotic
Launched with the rocket Vulcan Centaur from the United Launch Alliance, Peregrine, a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, was supposed to arrive on the Moon with around a hundred kilos of scientific instruments, such as: the small Iris rover, the LETS radiation detector, which was to be installed on the lunar surface. the NSS neutron spectrometer, whose goal was to look for evidence of the presence of water ice on the lunar surface, etc.
While the mission had barely started on the night of January 7th to 8th, 2024, the American start-up started just a few hours later Astrobotics initially announced that its lander was facing numerous problems and “now has no chance of making a soft landing on the moon as planned.” Then on Saturday, January 14, Astrobotic said on
In NASA's first CLPS program, this error doesn't seem to be as serious as one might think: “This failed test has been done in the lab before.” The difference today is that it's visible to everyone, but the result is that same is: We test, we fail, we learn and we start again,” admits one of the astrobotics experts. »
The same story from NASA, for which: “This failure in broad daylight will serve to learn and progress.” Instead of just seeing the finished product, the audience also witnesses part of the process. »
It is clear that after the failure of Peregrine and in recent months after those of the Russian, Japanese and Israeli missions: Landing on the moon is still an engineering feat that we somewhat forget.
NASA response: postponement of lunar missions by one year
A few hours later, after Peregrine's failure was realized, NASA announces the postponement of the next two missions of the Artemis program by almost a year dedicated to the impending return of Americans to the moon.
Immediate consequences: The Artemis 2 mission, which was supposed to orbit the Moon with a crew of four astronauts, will be postponed from late 2024 to September 2025, and Artemis 3, which will mark the return of humans to the lunar star, will be postponed. also a year from 2025 to September 2026.
The reasons for these shifts
If the failure of the Pérégrine lander certainly played a role in this decision by NASA to postpone its missions to the Moon, It should be said that it is not only not the only one cause and was not a decisive factor in this decision.
In fact, and in our opinion, this is an “opportunity” for NASA, which is beginning to notice the accumulation of delays due to more or less important causes.
If it is true that there are still numerous problems to be solved, for example in the spacesuits or in the heat shield that protects the Orion capsule, the real uncertainties are at the level of Space X, which NASA has chosen for the Artemis 2 and 3 Missions.
Today, SpaceX's primary concern is getting its spaceship to fly. The first flight on Thursday, April 20, 2023, exploded in flight shortly after takeoff and the second test flight of the spacecraft, which can be described as “a successful failure” because many objectives were achieved, also ended with the destruction of the two floors .
Given the delays from Boeing, which is also involved in the project, and the uncertainties of SpaceX, it is currently impossible to know whether the new deadlines announced by NASA will be met or not.
Consequences for the race to the moon
If it is true that China and the United States are fighting hard to conquer space and the moon, Bill Nelson, NASA administrator, believes that the US will win the race: “I'm not afraid that China will land before us… I think China did a very aggressive plan. I think she would like to land before us because it might give her a boost in notoriety. But the thing is: I don't think she will.
I think it's true that their announced date is moving forward. But more specifically, with our landing in September 2026, this will be the first landing.
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These postponements will undoubtedly benefit Jeff Bezos and Blue Origin, which will have more time to manufacture and develop their own Blue Moon lunar landing system, developed with several partner companies (Lockheed Martin, Draper, Boeing, Astrobotic, Honeybee Robotics) and contracted by NASA became the Artemis 5 and 6 missions.
This shows that even in space, “the misfortune of one person can trigger the happiness of others” (Voltaire).
Michel Messager – DR
Michel MESSAGER is deputy director of Consul Tours, a consulting company working for private and institutional clients in the tourism sector.
He is a founding member of the European Institute of Space Tourism and the AFST (French Association of Tourism Seniors). He is the author of numerous articles on the subject as well as several books: “Space Tourism” appeared in French documentation in 2009, “History of Space Tourism from 1950 to 2020” appeared in 2021, “Spatial Tourism and Ecology” in 2022 and “Space Tourism from 1950 to 2022” on Amazon . He is currently considered one of the specialists in this field.
He speaks frequently on the subject on radio and television and at conferences in many countries, particularly in Canada, where he lives a few months each year. In particular, he advises “New Space” companies and investment funds on financial projects related to space tourism.
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