Will the snap general elections called by socialist Pedro Sanchez anticipate the return of the Spanish right to power, or will they allow Sanchez to renew his lease on La Moncloa? With more than 60% of the votes counted, the PS and the PP are almost equal with 128 and 131 votes respectively. Far behind, and surprisingly, the far-right Vox party would lose more than a third of its elected representatives to 33 seats. In Catalonia, the separatists are second only to the socialists.
This Sunday evening, the Spanish head of government sees the ballot boxes playing a yo-yo with his fate. With the votes, he was sometimes in the lead, sometimes behind the moderate right-wing People’s Party (PP), which was voted the winner in the polls. These snap parliamentary elections, held after a defeat in local and regional elections in May, were therefore not as promising as opinion polls suggested. But never before has the right come so close to regaining power in the country. If an alliance is formed with the Spanish extreme right, represented by the Vox party…
At 10 p.m., the PP, led by Alberto Feijoo, would win 131 seats in Congress against 128 in Sanchez’s PS with more than 60% of the vote. By a wide margin, the far-right Vox party would come in today with 33 votes elected versus 52, which, considering final results on that basis, would be a poor result.
Poor performance for Vox who can still be the kingmaker
The creation of Santiago Abascal, heir to the Franco regime, could therefore still be a kingmaker if the PP negotiates with her the seats it lacks to achieve the majority set at 176 elected. In such a case, Vox would raise the stakes and, of course, enter government, a first since the end of the Franco regime in Spain.
On the left, Pedro Sanchez, even if he remains at the top at the end of the count, has no choice but to turn again to the Catalan and Basque separatists (whom he still refuses to hold a referendum on self-determination) in hopes of salvaging his majority. ERC and Junts would each get seven MPs, while the Basques of Bildu would get six MPs. And opposite Sumar, the heir to Podemos, which would win around thirty seats.
Still, the Socialist candidate limited the break promised to him in the polls. The Spanish coalition, which often surprises (e.g. in the recent municipal elections in Barcelona), can allow him to save his majority.
Catalonia puts socialists before separatists
Catalan voters, who have still achieved partial results, see the Socialists in the lead (twenty seats versus ten today), followed by the ERC separatists (in power in the Generalitat) and those of the Junts (Carles Puigdemont’s formation), each with seven electors elected. The PP would have five seats and the far-right Vox would only win two seats in Catalonia.