- By Laura Gozzi and Paul Kirby
- BBC News
4 hours ago
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Temperatures have reached 40C in the final stages of the election campaign and millions of voters will be on holiday
Spain is holding a most unusual election next Sunday at the height of a scorching summer after four years of leftist rule.
Current Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called the vote in response to a dismal showing in May’s local elections, in which his Socialist Party finished second to its main rival, the conservative People’s Party.
In this country of 48 million people, parliamentary elections have never been held so late in the summer in Spanish history. The timing of the July 23 vote has drawn criticism as temperatures have hit 40ºC in many parts of Spain and up to 10 million Spaniards are on holiday.
The People’s Party (PP) under Alberto Nunez Feijóo have their sights set on victory, but their lead in the polls has narrowed. To win a majority, they must secure more than half of the 350 seats in the lower house of parliament. The Spaniards will also vote for their House of Lords.
Neither the PP nor the Socialists are likely to win enough votes to govern alone. The Conservatives would likely need the support of far-right Vox, while Mr Sánchez would bet on left-wing Sumar.
Sexual consent, nationalism and economics
LGBT and gender issues have become important campaign issues in the run-up to this election. Opposition parties PP and Vox have slammed the left-wing government’s new laws on transgender rights – including making it easier to change their legal gender – and on abortion.
They have also attacked Spain’s controversial policy “Only yes means yes” Sexual Consent Act. It was only passed last August but created a loophole that reduced jail terms for over 1,000 convicted rapists – and Mr Sánchez eventually had to apologize and push through changes.
The very existence of gender-based violence has been questioned by some Vox party officials, creating tension with their potential Conservative partners.
nationalism was also a hot topic. The PP and Vox have labeled Mr Sánchez a “traitor” for pardoning jailed pro-independence supporters and downgrading the crime of secession.
A highly effective right-wing tactic was to target the prime minister with the slogan that he would rely on separatists to enact key reforms.
He has been denounced for his pact with the Basque separatist party Bildu, led by Arnaldo Otegi, who was jailed for crimes committed by the militant group Eta.
Image Credit: Fernando Sanchez/Europa Press via Getty Image
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The slogan “Let Txapote vote for you” accuses Pedro Sánchez of relying on the support of Separatist killers
The slogan Que te vote Txapote, meaning “Let Txapote vote for you,” refers to another Eta militant who carried out a series of deadly terrorist attacks.
As Spain suffers from worsening droughts and heat waves, most parties need to take action climate change. Only in the Vox election program is the topic not mentioned at all.
The biggest problem for most voters is the Business, although much of the campaign has focused on other issues. Spain is experiencing a period of growth and inflation slowed to below 2% in June, one of the lowest levels in Europe.
But gloomy unemployment figures are one of the opposition’s most common lines of attack against the current government. In May, Spain had the highest unemployment rate (12.7%) of any EU country.
Who to look out for
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Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez (left) called for early elections, but Alberto Núñez Feijóo is considered the favorite to win
He was the first politician in Spain to wrest power from an incumbent prime minister through a motion of no confidence in 2018. Then, in January 2020, he narrowly won a confidence vote to form Spain’s first coalition government since democracy was restored in the late 1970s.
Pedro Sánchez, 51, is a passionate pro-European integrationist and speaks fluent English; He taught economics in Spain and worked part-time for the United Nations High Representative in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
His way of governing was dubbed sanchismo, and his opponents presented the election as a choice between sanchismo or Spain, suggesting he posed a threat to the country, its traditions and values.
He has pushed forward legislation to give dignity to the victims of dictator General Francisco Franco, he has backed a rule giving workers the right to menstrual leave and legislation to extend abortion rights.
But this snap election may be too much of a gamble as his party lags behind its conservative rivals. He has accused the PP of wanting to put Spain in a “dark time machine” and take the country “back to who knows where”, with the support of the far-right Vox.
Image credit: Alejandro Garcia/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock
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Mr Feijóo was less enthusiastic about the prospect of a coalition with the extreme right
The leader of the People’s Party has deliberately maintained a low-key image, recently saying that “what may be boring for some are, in my opinion, for the majority of citizens qualities that a prime minister should have”.
However, it became clear that he had won the only televised direct election debate by telling Mr. Sánchez he had no right to lecture on government pacts because he was dependent on separatists.
Born in Galicia, north-west Spain, the former civil servant has led the Conservatives since 2022.
As president of the former National Health Service and Postal Service, he has earned a reputation as a safe man.
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Santiago Abascal’s party takes a hard line on gay marriage, adoption by gay couples, abortion, euthanasia and transgender rights
He led the far-right Vox party, which he co-founded in 2014, and is known for his controversial statements. He said he doesn’t believe in climate change and has criticized the “totalitarian law of gender ideology,” which he says criminalizes men.
Last month he used the unrest in France to call for tougher immigration policies. “Europe is threatened by hordes of anti-Europeans who are unwilling to conform to our way of life and our laws,” he said. “Europe cannot continue to receive immigrants from Muslim countries.”
Vox has already struck coalition agreements with the conservatives in dozens of cities and three autonomous regions – Extremadura to the west, Valencia to the east and Castilla y León north of Madrid. In the Balearic Islands, Vox has a pact with the PP but holds no government positions.
Now Mr. Abascal also seeks a share of national power.
He has close ties with other European far-right and nationalist groups, from ruling Fidesz in Hungary and the Rassemblement Nationale in France to Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s party, the Brothers of Italy.
Ms Meloni supported Vox’s election campaign and recorded a video to reaffirm the parties’ “great friendship”.
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Yolanda Díaz has gained popularity in Spain for her headline-grabbing politics
If Vox is Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s potential kingmaker, then it would be for the socialists’ Yolanda Díaz’ Sumar (United) coalition of 15 left-wing groups.
A former communist, she was Spain’s second deputy prime minister and labor minister, and also wants to be Spain’s first female leader: “because the time for women has come and women want to be the ones who make history.”
Sumar has campaigned hard for the youth vote, pledged €20,000 (£17,139) in funding to give 18-23 year olds a start in life.
Ms Díaz is a popular politician who helped raise Spain’s minimum wage to €1,259 and scrap unpopular labor laws.
Who is the favourite?
While opinion polls have fallen, the Conservatives and Mr. Feijóo are the favorites to win. However, they may need to form a coalition with Vox to form a majority and avoid repeat elections.
Recent polls put the PP receiving 32-34% of the vote and the Socialists 28-29% of the vote. Vox is at 13-14%, slightly ahead of Sumar at 12-13%.
A party needs 176 seats to achieve an absolute majority, so no party would achieve overall victory with this result.
PP and Vox: An uncertain partnership
Although Vox has made great strides in securing power-sharing deals with the Conservatives in three Spanish autonomous regions and smaller deals in Murcia and the Balearic Islands, Mr Feijóo is less than enthusiastic about the prospect of governing with the far right.
The PP boss appeared shaken by his rival’s allegations of a “shameful” pact with Vox.
In their televised debate, Mr Feijóo said that Vox’s Mr Abascal would not be a member of any future PP government “if I don’t need the votes”. He even offered Mr Sánchez of the Socialists a pact for the losing party to back the winner so that neither would have to rely on the extreme right or the left.
But Vox might be the only option. Last month, Maria Guardiola, the PP president of the western Extremadura region, said she would never rule with a party that “dehumanizes immigrants” and “denigrates” LGBT rights.
She later changed her mind and welcomed Vox into her government on the grounds that “my word is not as important as the future of Extremadura”.
Alongside the hard line on gay marriage, gay couple adoption, abortion, euthanasia and transgender rights, another big issue that has driven support for Vox is its outspoken stance against Catalan nationalism.
Opinion is also grim about the status of Gibraltar, a British Overseas Territory at the southern end of the Iberian Peninsula.
Last year, Vox denounced reports of talks between the UK and Spain, warning that “any agreement that does not include recognition of the Spanish sovereignty of Gibraltar constitutes an act of treason against Spain”.