Published on February 14, 2024 at 10:10 p.m.
The context would be unfavorable for winter activities. Forecast.
Snow gone
If you dream of heavy snowfall during your favorite winter activity, the following might disappoint you. The prevailing atmospheric context would not favor the passage of systems into Quebec, according to the models. This does not mean that there would be no snow at all, but the expected accumulations would be less. Typically, the province receives three broadsides in the last two weeks of February. This scenario is unlikely this season.
Small gatherings
Given the threat of large systems bypassing Quebec, forecasters estimate that the snow episodes will not be very heavy. Only in the last two weeks of February would the metropolis receive less than 20 cm, the average for the period.
Unfavorable trajectory
It should be noted that this trend should continue in March. The rainfall pattern would not change at the start of meteorological spring. Depending on the prevailing atmospheric context, large systems originating from the southern United States would follow a path that takes them south of the border. Quebec would thus be spared from the major broadsides.
Dry diet
This dry regime would result in a rainfall deficit for all regions of Quebec. However, areas in the northwest of the province could benefit from more frequent transit of systems from Western Canada. Below normal snow accumulations are expected for all areas of the St. Lawrence Valley to Gaspésie, including Outaouais, Estrie, Beauce and Saguenay.
In collaboration with meteorologists Réjean Ouimet and Nicolas Lessard.