It's not the number of voters that makes Iowa so important. The rural Midwestern state is home to 3.2 million people and less than 10% of them will vote today. There are also fewer than usual, just Republicans. The Democratic Party changed the primary calendar and pushed Iowa back. Furthermore, their candidate has been determined: Joe Biden, the incumbent president.
What is causing the enormous national interest in the Iowa primary elections, which, strictly speaking, are not primaries at all but rather a multitude of party meetings, each called a “caucus,” is the magic media word “momentum” – and the question of whether a trend emerges in Iowa, a dynamic of its own that turns the polls inside out or consolidates them and becomes relevant for the future course of the elections.
Iowa – trendsetter or dead end
Barak Obama, for example, had “momentum” on his side when he defeated frontrunner Hillary Clinton in Iowa in 2008, changed the dynamics among Democrats in his favor and ended up winning the presidential election. Iowa was his springboard to the White House.
Professional election observers in the US, who love comparisons, data and statistics, are also immediately at hand with examples that make Iowa look like a political flash in the pan after a victory, a political flash in the pan or a dead end. History shows that victories at the Iowa caucus have paved the way to the presidency only three times.
Attract attention, collect donations
In any case, for candidates it is about attracting attention, raising their own awareness, winning over activists for the election campaign, going door to door and personally addressing voters, and raising as much money as possible. possible money for self-promotion.
According to AdImpact, $100 million was spent on commercials in Iowa's three major television markets – Des Moines, Cedar Rapids and Sioux City. By the end of the year, all elections across the country will be many times higher, another new record in the US, like every four years when a president is elected.
Portal/Cheney Orr Donald Trump is the clear favorite among Republicans. He's won Iowa once and lost once.
It's all about Donald Trump
In today's primary elections, former President Trump is the proverbial “800-pound gorilla,” as someone who dominates or seems to dominate everything is often called in the US. He is so far ahead of Haley and DeSantis in every opinion poll that it seems impossible to some. But for him, as is known, it is not only the votes of the Republican electorate that matter, but also the evolution of some criminal and civil cases.
How this will happen and what may come to light cannot be estimated. And it is even more questionable how it will affect voters – especially with regard to the chances of success in November's real elections, in which each candidate needs much more support than that of loyal party members.
Portal/Mike Segar, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley
The Republican challengers
Two people – DeSantis and Haley – see medium-term opportunities. Both are conservative, both supported Trump, but both are more mainstream and less polarizing. Haley, in particular, is believed to have a chance with undecided voters.
Both have the same calculation: close the gap to Trump in Iowa, establish himself clearly in second place, and then repeat this a week later in the New Hampshire primary elections – with the gap to Trump again significantly reduced.
An additional consideration for DeSantis and Haley is that the other will drop out after the two primaries and the remaining rounds will be a duel with Trump. The calculation is that he could find himself in increasingly greater legal difficulties every week and thus dissuade more voters.
Such a development is not likely at this time, but is possible if dynamics change. So looking back, Iowa may have been the springboard.