So let’s try an RPG. And a minimum of logical coldness. Imagine you are Vladimir Putin. After the war you spend years working on the underground destabilization of the governments of foreign countries. In fact, for a time in 2016 you were considered the architect of Donald Trump’s sensational election victory. Russiagate, remember? In fact, you are omnipotent and even capable of getting your favorite candidate into the White House. The same question in Europe. Formally, you were able to rule Germany until recently through the good offices of Angela Merkel and the influence of a former Chancellor like Gerard Schröder, now manager of your company. In France, Marine Le Pen is your Trojan horse in the National Assembly and threatens to end up in the Elysée. Then there is Italy. Whereby formally and with reconstructions and scoops you would have nothing less than M5S, Lega and part of Forza Italia on your side, at least in continuity with the personal friendship with Silvio Berlusconi. In short, at least the last three governments have been in some way sensitive to your interests. do you understand the picture
Well, if this were really the context in which the Kremlin operates in its work of provocation and destabilization, what interest would it have in allowing a stylistic error like Dmitry Medvedev’s? No one. Paradoxically, this sentence, with little meaning and much provocative indictment, would risk surfacing years of underground work brought to the surface in the secret rooms of embassies by companies operating abroad, compliant media and fake social profiles spreading fake news, Spy missions disguised as medical caravans to save Covid-devastated Lombardy. And last but not least, methods of technological warfare such as the massive use of hacking. In short, something is wrong. And do you know why? Quite simply because Dimitrj Medvedev’s is a provocation, a teasing dog that pretends to be asleep, but keeps worries awake – real ones and not those of the fairytale world of Repubblica. Very smart. A bit like you would with someone who is so much a fan that they lose the Trapezunt as soon as your heart’s soccer team is named. It’s done on purpose just to enjoy the spectacle of its mayonnaise-style madness.
Do you know what the only Russian destabilization that is happening is? This: Another record was swept by one-year power contracts in Germany and France on Thursday. We have now arrived at the daily and systemic updating of primacy. And above all, we are at an unmanageable level. Completely unmanageable.
And this has nothing to do with a hidden strategy, not a destabilization campaign: we face a war that is openly and openly declared. That is, Russia’s response to Europe’s commitment to side with Kiev and the logic of sanctions. The problem is someone should be cold enough to grab the ball and stop. For example, if you go too far in the spirit of competition and kicks start flying with every action. The referee, if he is intelligent, blocks everything and calls the captains to him. Ramanzina threatens to be deported and then play again. Europe lacks that here. A thinking head is missing for understanding. Because the fact that the sanctions have clearly been directed against the perpetrators now seems clear to children too. It would therefore be madness to continue. Not so much because Putin is more or less wrong, we also assume that Moscow is wrong anyway. The fact remains that a recipe will be changed if it proves fit only to pave the way to disaster. Otherwise you are either idiots or you have a dual purpose. And this graphic speaks for itself.
In general, on the same day, the valuation of European natural gas in Amsterdam broke the historical record and reached 241 MWh. More than ever achieved in the peak of March, just after the start of the conflict in Ukraine, when all-out sanctions and global isolation of the Kremlin threatened. Six months have passed and the situation, after seven rounds of more or less ridiculous sanctions, is as you see it vividly represented by the graph. In addition, it should be emphasized that at the banking and financial level, all major restrictions imposed on Russian banks have fallen due to exceptions, primarily by exploiting the alibi of the food crisis to be avoided, and thus the need to sign food and food contracts reactivate fertilizers.
So no one talks about the alleged energy embargo. The Russian surplus speaks for itself, Moscow’s coffers are full and, in fact, the default itself has disappeared from the columns of pathetically biased newspapers. Meanwhile, the US withdrew. Not after we sent another shipment of arms to Kyiv and a sizeable tranche of aid, another one. Since the war began, the Biden administration has guaranteed Kyiv around $8.8 billion. In addition, there will be a moratorium on the payment of levies on foreign debt and on loans from the IMF for the whole of 2023.
Do you really think that this can be a solution to the conflict? Do you really think Kyiv can win? If so, then Europe should end the ambivalence and clearly side with Ukraine. Absolutely. By blocking all types of trade and supplies with Russia. By imposing an embargo on everything, including gas. Send weapons with the shovel. And, if necessary, prepare for war. Otherwise, when these US bonds are finally read for what they are, the need to end a war with a unique military outcome but with an anti-EU economic purpose to be exploited for as long as possible , let’s end with the antics of Russian interference in the Italian vote. The problem is that it will not be the Kremlin that will intervene in the polls, but the gas price, to which no one has yet guaranteed an answer, except for buffer measures in the Council of Ministers, which collect money here and there.
But this chart tells us that fall will be something else entirely. And don’t focus on minus degrees for heating, or traffic lights off at night, or monuments without lights, or hot water at set times: with these ratings, the problem will be the epidemic of failed businesses. Like flying. From evening to morning. Because no SME can withstand such pressure on energy costs, even if the banking system were to tighten and tighten the strings of the stock exchange to guarantee credit and credit for all. And that won’t be the case as the credit crunch is upon us with further interest rate tightening in September. And with German producer prices up 37.2% yoy in July vs 31.8% expectation and 5.3% monthly vs 0.7% expectation, forget the Bundesbank at the normalization of the cost of money gives up. The classic short circuit, the dog bites its own tail. And with unemployment, the problem will not be (just) GDP, but the exponential increase in bad debts to banks of those who are unemployed or laid off and who will stop making mortgage payments.
Europe has treated the Ukrainian question in a dilettantish and Pilates-like manner, to say the least, which has brought us to this situation. To think that Dimitrj Medvedev’s words can guarantee another smoke screen seems crazy before it’s terribly stupid. And those who think Copasir’s invasion of the field can guarantee him a favor in the polls will also be able to count a few more seats on September 26th. But he could already curse him in early October. Because this chart will dictate the answers. And this time it will be necessary to give it.
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