Fourteen million Italians make up the long weekend of June 2nd. Happy Holidays to them, especially good luck if they have to stop at the dealer: the Greens over 2 euros a liter. And it keeps getting worse. Because, gentlemen, whether you like it or not, there is no oil in Italy. Also not in Germany. There is in the North Sea. But it costs much more than Russian Ural crude, which is bought by the shovel from India and China, the latter poised for a medium-term deal with Moscow to replenish its strategic reserves. The same ones that Joe Biden deleted, except now to announce a fall buyback. Of course the price goes up. An asymptomatic Nobel.
Europe does not want to understand that it is a commercial and industrial giant, but a resource dwarf: and without it it is difficult to produce. On the other hand, mea culpas are springing up like sprouts: Janet Yellen, former Fed Chair and now US Treasury Secretary, admitted that perhaps she had the wrong approach and analysis on inflation. Not bad as the target share is 2% and the current level is over 8%. In the double digits, he may get rid of the dubious formula when he faces an admission of his responsibilities.
Look at this chart that shows us how our perception of the world is totally stoned and NATO-centric: we are not the strongest, we are not even the majority. The so-called Eurasian bloc is not a red-brown invention. It’s already a reality.
Do you know what the EAEU is? It stands for Eurasian Economic Union, a development and cooperation pact that includes Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and Belarus. Before the 2014 Maidan coup, Ukraine had a chance to join. Quickly. Very fast. He said no. He chose another. Legit. But perhaps in this decision some doubts could be innervated about the whole operation that was already underway in those parts. Because although some journalists with suspenders have decided that the current issue is to deny the existence of a proxy war in Ukraine, this choice by Kiev speaks for itself. And it’s tender that a puppet in the hands of the State Department like ex-President Petro Poroshenko is now invited to Davos, where he preaches like a statesman and is uncomfortable with the spirit of Hitler and 1939. Compared to Poroshenko, Antonio Razzi is Winston Churchill and Domenico Scilipoti, a cross between John Fitzgerald Kennedy and Helmut Kohl.
Poroshenko is the man who stopped and transferred the anti-corruption super-prosecutor at the formal and blackmailing request of then-US envoy to Ukraine, incidentally Joe Biden. He stuck his nose into Burisma, the state giant whose board of directors was Hunter Biden, son of the current US President. Who happens to, after shaking hands with his imaginary friend and making the invisible dog pee, changes his mind within 24 hours on a small question, such as sending new-generation missiles to Kyiv. Weapons capable of hitting Russian territory. But rest assured that other Nobel Peace Prize winners, President Zelensky, have said they will not. And how can we not believe him?
Why do you think this sudden change of course could trigger worrying scenarios of escalation in the Kremlin? Maybe because Zelenskyy and Poroshenko are able to blow up the Biden presidency in half a day if they expose the truth about the Burisma case and the release of IMF aid in Kyiv? Gentlemen, this is not just a proxy war. This is THE proxy war par excellence. A case study, a basic case study from an academic lesson on destabilization and asymmetric conflict.
They say: if Biden is a hostage, who is pulling the strings in the US? Who plays with Zelensky and the gentlemen of the Azov battalion on the bench? The Pentagon. And above all the war industrial sector behind it. In short, warfare. And this chart speaks volumes: On Wednesday, the Atlanta Fed released the real-time GDP plotter update (GDPNow) for the second quarter. It fell to 1.3% from 1.9% on May 27: a breakdown in macro data starting with the Citigroup Surprise Index. And at the highest inflation since the original Top Gun was released in theaters.
Watch out gentlemen: to keep US economic growth on the waterline despite last week’s slump, there’s the war sector right now, grinding record orders and bargains. And with a global slowdown underway and China forced to work primarily on rebalancing internal dynamics, Washington must continue the war. As long as possible. Cannons are needed for GDP, Warfare is needed. However, it was possible for the most formally powerful man in the world to change his mind within 24 hours. And above all, accept Kiev’s promise of conscious and moderate use of the missiles it is to be equipped with. Since the Russian army is making miles and conquests every day, do you really think these missiles will be cut? Paradoxically, the Ukrainians would then be idiots.
And here we are with the problem, very serious. Aside from a Kremlin immediately freezing any formal deal on wheat and a Viktor Orban blocking the sixth package of EU sanctions, who would be the immediate and self-sacrificing victim of the crossfire of a possible accident on Russian territory? Who would see the flow of petrol cut off while petrol is already blinking at 2.5 euros a liter at the petrol stations? How is it that while the Kremlin was opening up for the first time to the hypothesis of a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy, news of the release of new weapons for Kyiv was pouring in from Washington and London, in fact a clear desire to break the bank beforehand? The protagonists sit down? Don’t you think this is a proxy war?
Be careful because now the risk bar is really increasing. And if, between next Thursday and the following Wednesday, first the ECB and then the Fed happened to unleash the economic storm outlined by JP Morgan’s number one, Jamie Dimon, speaking to analysts and investors, Europe would be in the eye of that storm. . . And of course Italy, with its debt, is the epicenter.
Enjoy the June 2nd bridge, you who can. Because summer could be downright cruel. As Bananarama sang in the 1980s when inflation was at its current levels.
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