Will Donald Trump eliminate all of his rivals in the first round? Will Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis pull off an upset thanks to the terrible weather? Iowa opens the big ball of the Republican primaries on Monday.
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For the first time since leaving power, the former American president, who has been criminally charged four times, will face the verdict of voters.
The 77-year-old billionaire is on track to win this crucial election race: polls show he has one of his largest-ever leads over his rivals, with nearly 50% voting intentions.
“We will win, hands down,” Donald Trump tells his activists, vowing to oust Joe Biden from power in November’s presidential election.
The former leader can count on an army of volunteers who have been scouring every corner of Iowa for months to mobilize voters.
“It’s cancelled?”
However, one last-minute unknown upsets the equation for the Republican favorite: the cold.
The entire state has been hit by a snowstorm and the thermometer is expected to reach -30°C and the roads are icy by the time of voting.
Will Donald Trump voters, confident of their candidate's victory, be motivated to vote under these conditions?
“The main question I get is whether the vote will be canceled,” warns Maci Arjes, leader of a group of young Republicans at her university in Iowa City.
The verdict will come at 7:00 p.m. local time (01:00 GMT Tuesday), as voters gather in schools, libraries and fire stations across this Midwestern state.
After a prayer and a recitation of the traditional oath of allegiance to the American flag, representatives of the candidates give a speech in support of their champion before participants write their choice on a piece of paper.
Donald Trump plans to take part in several of these election meetings, so-called “caucuses”, during the evening, his entourage told the AFP news agency.
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Five candidates are vying to block his path to the White House, but only two appear to have a chance.
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, the only woman in the race, is benefiting from a recent surge in poll numbers.
The fifty-year-old is the new darling of the right, who is particularly valued in business circles.
As for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a conservative with shocking positions on immigration and abortion, this forty-year-old has put all his money on Iowa, traveling to each of the 99 counties in recent months.
“I'm asking you to come out, brave the cold and support me during the Iowa caucus,” he told his supporters Monday morning.
Observers do not rule out the possibility that one or the other will cause a surprise and eat up part of Donald Trump's enormous lead.
Choice, process
However, if the former president fails to achieve the triumph announced in Iowa, there is a risk that his image of invincibility will be tarnished for the rest of the race.
Starting next week, the highly orchestrated ballet of the primaries will take the candidates to New Hampshire before voting takes turns in each of the 50 states until June.
In sight is the national convention in July, where the Republican presidential candidate will be officially nominated.
For Donald Trump, the priority is to secure victory before his trials begin, some of which threaten him with a prison sentence.
The Republican will have an extraordinary year in every respect, marked by back and forth between the courts and the caucus platforms.
What about the Democrats?
Outgoing President Joe Biden already enjoys the official support of his party and, barring any major surprises, should be named its nominee in August. And this despite repeated criticism of the 80-year-old leader's age.
The Democrat announced Monday that he has a war chest of more than $117 million for his re-election campaign – a significant asset in a country where political victories are won with billions of dollars.