Söder just mediocre, Merz can be happy
Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder, who is the strong man in every situation, once again gave a mediocre to poor performance. At least according to CSU standards. This time, according to ZDF projections, she received 36.5% of the votes. This roughly corresponds to the 2018 result, when the CSU obtained 37.2 percent and again needed a coalition partner to govern. The result at that time was considered historically bad, which is why Söder now has to answer for two historically bad results, which in itself is historic again. For comparison: the last CSU main candidate who was not named Söder was Horst Seehofer, who got 47.4% in 2013.
In the past, the CSU would have immediately parted ways with the hapless candidate after a result of less than 40 percent. But Söder need not worry too much: his party supports him and recently confirmed him as party leader with 96.6 percent. Governing will not be easy: Söder decided early on to continue with the Free Voters. However, they have improved from 11.6% in 2018 to 14.4% and are likely to be more demanding than ever.
And there is a second consequence: since Söder has done anything but great, he cannot claim the Union’s candidacy for chancellor in 2025. If Söder, as originally from Bavaria, is already in trouble in Bavaria, then he shouldn’t do much better in the federal government. CDU leader Friedrich Merz and Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia Hendrik Wüst are likely to decide on the candidate question or “question K”.
Nancy Faeser failed brutally
Nancy Faeser said she wanted to become the first woman to head the Hessian state government when she declared herself the SPD’s main candidate in Hesse. The Hessians now prefer to keep the current Boris Rhein (CDU). The result is absolutely brutal for Faeser; she further improved her party’s historically weak result in 2018 (19.8 percent) (15.6 percent). In fact, Faeser had the best conditions: she comes from Hesse and is well known there. At the same time, as Federal Minister of the Interior, she is responsible for the issue that most concerns people right now: legal and illegal immigration.
But Faeser failed to win over the electorate. In fact, she seemed to be overwhelmed by her dual task: she neither adequately fulfilled the role of candidate nor minister. This is reminiscent of Norbert Röttgen, who, as Federal Minister for the Environment, intended to become Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia in 2012. In the end, he had neither position – voters did not grant him one and Chancellor Angela Merkel took the other one. Faeser should at least be spared this latest fate. She can hardly be replaced as Minister of the Interior because Chancellor Olaf Scholz has committed to parity between men and women in the cabinet and there are currently no women in the SPD pushing for the interior department. However, Faeser’s authority will likely suffer following the outcome of this election.
AfD as winner of secret elections
The recent trend was confirmed in the state elections: Germany is moving to the right. In Bavaria, according to forecasts, the AfD has improved significantly, from 10.2% in 2018 to almost 16% – making it probably the second strongest force. The same happens in Hesse: here the AfD increased from 13.1% to a good 17%. This confirms the trend that has been evident for some time in the federal government and especially in East Germany: according to polls, the AfD is well in the lead in Thuringia, Brandenburg and Saxony, where state elections will take place next year.
Looking at it another way: in Bavaria, for example, the left-wing or liberal parties in the federal traffic light government (SPD, Greens, FDP) cumulatively receive less than 30 percent of the vote. On Sunday’s question (“If there were federal elections next Sunday…”), the AfD in the federal government was recently at over 20 percent, while the CDU/CSU fell well below the 30 percent mark in some cases . If the traffic light government, with its weakened Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, fails to convincingly address the hot topic of migration, this trend is likely to continue.
A reminder for traffic light parties
The traffic light coalition consisting of the SPD, Greens and Liberals in the federal government did not stand as a candidate in the elections in Bavaria and Hesse; However, all parties involved performed disappointingly. The SPD in Bavaria has deteriorated again (from 9.7% in 2018 to 8.2% this year). In Hesse, the Social Democrats failed in their stated aim of winning the state chancellery with the nationally known Interior Minister Nancy Faeser; Instead, the SPD fell further behind (from 19.8% in 2018 to 15.6% this year). The FDP failed to enter the state parliament in Bavaria, achieved just three percent (5.1 percent in 2018), and in Hesse it was initially unclear whether it would be enough to overcome the five percent barrier.
Only the Greens, with their very loyal electorate, somehow maintained their results. In Bavaria they reached 15.8 percent (2018: 17.6), in Hesse they reached 15.2 percent (2018: 19.8). In both cases, however, according to initial forecasts, they finished behind the AfD.
This is likely to make governing even more difficult for Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and difficult times lie ahead in federal politics. Faeser is weakened, the FDP can hardly expect success next year and concerns are growing in the Chancellor’s SPD party – because many SPD members in the Bundestag now fear that they will not be re-elected in 2025. This is likely to lead to demands on the Chancellor – e.g. , regarding the price of industrial electricity, which many in the SPD want, but which Olaf Scholz has so far rejected. And when it comes to migration, the traffic light is now under great pressure, both from the Union and the AfD, and from the FDP within its own ranks.
What will become of the FDP?
Since the start of the traffic light coalition, state elections have generally been dismal for the Liberals. They missed significantly (North Rhine-Westphalia, Schleswig-Holstein) or completely missed the 5% barrier (Lower Saxony, Berlin, Saarland). On Sunday, it quickly became clear that the FDP in Bavaria had no longer reached the state parliament. In Hesse it was initially uncertain.
After the defeat in Lower Saxony a year ago, party leader Christian Lindner announced that he would raise the liberals’ profile. His party did this mainly by opposing the Greens, for example when it came to phasing out nuclear energy or the heating law. After that, it seemed like the party was stabilizing a bit. According to research, the FDP is currently just above the 5% mark in the federal government. Most likely, party leader Christian Lindner will not have to wait to lose his power. The party is centered on his person and no one is coming forward who can replace him.
In any case, it is unlikely that the party will be willing to compromise anymore, especially not with the Greens, and certainly not when it comes to the issue of migration. Lindner has already made it clear that he will not commit to a possible coalition before the federal elections – nor to the continuation of the traffic light.