Does the government of François Legault have the financial resources to give its 564,400 civil servants the 21% increase in three years that the Common Front of Central Trade Unions is demanding on behalf of its union members? NO!
But does the CAQ government have the means to improve on its latest offer, which it estimates at a 14.8% increase over five years? Without a doubt YES!
I invite both parties to stop playing hardball! That the Legault government’s chief negotiator, Treasury President Sonia LeBel, and the Common Front union leaders stop hesitating and start negotiating seriously based on the actual fiscal capacity of the Quebec government and its taxpayers.
I emphasize the word “CON-TRI-BUA-BLES”. For what? Because stripping taxpayers Paul and Jeannette to clothe civil servants Jean and Paulette will not solve the problem of fair pay between public servants and the mass of taxpayers.
IN GOOD FAITH…PLEASE!
Every 1 percent increase in compensation (salary and benefits) for the state’s 564,400 employees costs an additional $600 million.
The Common Front is calling for an increase of 21% over three years or even 7% per year.
If the government agrees, it would result in a $4.2 billion increase in compensation spending for the first year of the collective agreement renewal, namely the current fiscal year. You should know that the agreement expired on March 31st.
Over three years, increasing state employee compensation would cost us a total of $12.6 billion more.
For its part, the government is offering 14.8% over 5 years, almost 3% per year. We’re talking about a total increase of about $8.88 billion over 5 years, or even an average of $1.78 billion per year.
Specifically, the current gap between government supply and Common Front demand is therefore $2.42 billion per year.
If the Legault government increases its offer by one notch and the Common Front lowers its demand by one notch, this would undoubtedly lead to more serious negotiations between the two parties.
Apparently the CAQ government shot itself in the foot by voting for a 30% pay rise shortly before negotiations with the public and parastatal sectors began.
What a mistake!
THE FREE PATH
As I mentioned in my column last Saturday, the Quebec government would have $10 billion in budget flexibility.
This is not what I or the Legault government are saying, but rather the Parliamentary Budget Officer (independent federal agency) in his recent report on the financial sustainability of provincial and federal governments.
This suggests the CAQ government could increase spending by $10 billion or cut taxes by $10 billion this year without unbalancing the government’s fiscal position in the long term.
A margin of $10 billion may seem large. But in reality, responding to the pressing needs of the hour would be enough for the Legault government to melt like snow in the sun.
Examples of glaring needs: financial support to low- and middle-income households at all costs; invest more in community groups; improving services for people with disabilities; improve access to a family doctor; absorb a larger share of the public transport deficit.