To divide
Unbearably hot and with no water or food anywhere – this is what the Earth could be like in 250 million years. (Symbolic image) © IMAGO/Stefan Rotter
A research team is using a supercomputer to see what the Earth will look like in 250 million years. The result is shocking.
Bristol – Heat may be responsible for the next mass extinction on Earth. This is what a research group at the University of Bristol in Britain found using supercomputer climate models for the distant future. In a study published in the journal Nature Geoscience, the research team led by lead author Alexander Farnsworth describes what will happen to all mammals, including humans, in about 250 million years.
But how does this happen? Researchers have assumed for some time that a new supercontinent will emerge within a few hundred million years: Pangea Ultima. According to researchers, the tectonic processes involved in continental drift lead to more volcanic eruptions, which release large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and thus warm the planet. At the same time, the Sun is getting older and hotter and emitting more radiation.
New supercontinent “has no food and water sources for mammals”
“The newly formed supercontinent would mean triple insolation for large parts of the planet due to the effect of continentality, the hotter sun and higher levels of CO₂ in the atmosphere”, explains Farnsworth in a statement and continues: “The result is a situation in much of it hostile. environment, where there are no sources of food and water for mammals.”
Farnsworth paints a horror scenario for Earth’s distant future: “As the Sun is expected to emit about 2.5% more radiation and the supercontinent is located primarily in the hot, humid tropics, temperatures could range between 40 and 70 degrees Celsius in large parts of the planet Large daily extremes combined with high humidity “would ultimately seal our fate,” Farnsworth continued. “Humans – and many other species – would go extinct because they would not be able to release this heat through sweat and cool their bodies. ”
Earth must remain habitable until the creation of Pangea Ultima
Given that the future scenario looks so bleak, co-author Eunice warns: “It is crucial not to lose sight of our current climate crisis, which is a consequence of human emissions of greenhouse gases. Although we predict an uninhabitable planet within 250 million years, we are already experiencing extreme heat that is harmful to human health. That’s why it’s crucial to reach net-zero emissions as quickly as possible.”
The research team believes that although climate change and global warming will become a major problem in some regions of the world, the planet will remain largely habitable until the supercontinent Pangea Ultima forms. According to modeling, only between 8% and 16% of the land mass will then be habitable for mammals and humans.
The warmest monthly average temperature in degrees Celsius for Earth on the supercontinent Pangea Ultima, expected in the distant future. © University of Bristol
The study results also have relevance beyond Earth
Co-author Benjamin Mills led calculations of future carbon dioxide emissions for the study. He warns: “We believe CO₂ levels could rise from around 400 ppm today to over 600 ppm many millions of years into the future. Of course, this assumes people stop burning fossil fuels, otherwise we will see these numbers much, much sooner.”
The research group’s findings also have relevance beyond Earth, as lead author Farnsworth points out: “This work also makes clear that a world in the so-called ‘habitable zone’ of a solar system may not be the most hospitable to humans, depending whether the continents are dispersed, as we are today, or whether they are located in a large supercontinent.” (tab)