Atlantic hurricanes are now more likely to become “severe hurricanes” (Category 3 and above) more quickly than in the 1970s and 1980s, according to a new study released Thursday that warns of increased risks to coastal communities.
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The oceans, the main cause of hurricanes, have warmed significantly in recent years, with the world’s oceans absorbing more than 90% of the excess warming caused by human activities.
Previous research has shown that climate change is creating conditions for stronger storms to intensify more quickly and carry more water, although they have not been proven to increase their frequency.
The new study, published in the journal Scientific Reports, examined the changes in wind speeds during each Atlantic hurricane between 1970 and 2020. It concludes that, on average, all Atlantic storms – from the smallest to the most violent – tend to intensify.
“This work shows that the rate at which hurricanes intensify and the frequency with which they transition from relatively weak storms to major hurricanes have increased significantly over the past 50 years, even as we see significant increases in sea surface temperatures due to human activity caused warming,” study author Andra Garner from Rowan University in the United States told AFP.
His analysis shows that the probability of Atlantic hurricanes going from a relatively weak Category 1 to a Category 3 or stronger within 24 hours is more than twice as high today as it was in the 1970s and 1980s.
A trend particularly pronounced off the Atlantic coast of the United States and in the Caribbean Sea, but less pronounced in the Gulf of Mexico.
Garner said this is particularly concerning for coastal communities because the faster a storm intensifies, the harder it is to predict it.
Although the study did not specifically examine how hurricanes could continue to intensify as global warming continues, Garner said the findings should “really serve as a cautionary tale about the urgency” of the situation.
“Unless we radically change our behavior and quickly move away from fossil fuels to limit future ocean warming, I think we can expect this trend to become more and more extreme,” he said.