If Ukraine joined the EU, up to 17% of the alliance's common budget would flow to the country.
The German Economic Institute (IW) estimates the financial impact of full membership on the EU's current multi-annual budget at around 130 to 190 billion euros, according to a report published today. The EU's common multiannual budget amounts to around €1.1 trillion between 2021 and 2027.
The exact amount depends on assumptions made about Ukraine's agricultural land and population, the report says. In its calculations, the institute assumes 70 to 90 billion euros in agricultural subsidies for the country.
50 to 90 billion euros would be allocated to cohesion policy. These funds are intended to help structurally weak regions grow in order to compensate for economic and social differences in European regions.
Unanimous decision required
“Given this volume, the EU must be prepared to reform”, continue the experts. Only in this way can the political decision to link Ukraine more closely to itself, with the prospect of accession, be credible.
This applies both at the institutional level and at the fiscal level, that is, with regard to the budget. One suggestion: limit cohesion spending to the poorest Member States.
In early November, the EU Commission recommended the start of accession negotiations with Ukraine. Before the first round of negotiations, however, the country will have to complete the reforms it has begun. The start of negotiations must be decided unanimously by EU states.