1 of 3 Joe Biden and Donald Trump Photo: GETTY IMAGES/BBC Joe Biden and Donald Trump Photo: GETTY IMAGES/BBC
Historical, The day is usually crucial for both the Republican and Democratic parties, but especially for the opposition party this time the Republicans.
But unlike other Super Tuesdays with heated arguments, this year the candidacies of both sides are practically fixed. Despite controversies such as the question of age and memory on Joe Biden's side and the challenges that Republican Donald Trump is facing in court, both are considered absolute favorites in their parties. Trump was US President between 2017 and 2020; This Monday he was cleared to participate by the Supreme Court.
In the United States, primary candidates from each party compete in every state and territory in the country and elect a certain number of delegates (representatives) in each of them. Whoever has the most delegates at the end of the process becomes the party's presidential candidate. The largest electoral colleges are in California and Texas.
This year, 15 states and one U.S. territory will vote for the Republican Party on Super Tuesday; Of the Democrats, there will be 16, including the territory of American Samoa. The first results should be announced this Tuesday between 8pm and 11pm the definitions will be announced in the early hours of Wednesday (6).
The “super” thing about the event is the large number of delegates involved on the same day. For example, the Republican candidate needs 1,215 delegates to be nominated for president. There are 854 delegates at stake on Republican Super Tuesday alone.
Despite the favoritism, based on delegate counts, neither Trump nor Biden will win the nomination on Super Tuesday. According to calculations, the two preliminary candidates could only be confirmed as candidates from midMarch: Trump on March 12th; Biden, on March 19th.
Super Tuesday was already decisive
The vote of the Super Tuesday, for example, was already crucial for the former president Barack Obama in the dispute with Hillary Clinton in 2008 and for Donald Trump in the primary race in 2016. The two eventually won the elections in those years. It was also fierce among Republicans in 2012 and among Democrats in 2020.
Elections in the USA: What is Super Tuesday and why is it important?
However, given a predictable scenario for both Trump and Biden, the superlatives are likely to be weaker this year, according to experts surveyed by the US government g1.
therefore, the This year's Super Tuesday will be the least important in the last two decadesThat's the assessment of political analyst Sam Logan, founder of the Washington consulting firm Southern Pulse.
“In years like 2016, when Trump finally entered the race, the degree of relevance of Super Tuesday was much greater than this time,” Logan said g1. “But primaries in general have become less important, with the exception of these specific episodes.”
2 out of 3 men go to the polling station in the primary elections in the US state of Michigan in February 2024. — Photo: Paul Sancya/ AP Man walks to the polling station during the primary elections in the US state of Michigan in the United States, in February 2024. — Photo: Paul Sancya/ AP
On the Democratic side, Biden faces two other candidates, but emerges as the big favorite.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump only faces one rival, the former governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley, and has so far won with a large majority of delegates. He has beaten Haley in every Republican primary so far: Nevada, Virgin Islands, Michigan (where there are two primaries), Idaho, Missouri, Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, the latter's political birthplace.
Nikki Haley could boost the vote or drop out
3 of 3 Nikki Haley speaks during the South Carolina Republican primary. — Photo: Portal Nikki Haley speaks during the Republican primary in South Carolina. — Photo: Portal
Still, the experts' assessment is that the best chance for Super Tuesday to “get hotter” and regain prominence this year lies in Nikki Haley's performance.
This because Donald Trump's only rival fits the profile of Republican voters in most states who will vote on the date, more moderate, with a university education and more resistant to Trump's radical proposals, the latter more on the side of the extreme right.
Such is the case with the profile of voters in Massachusetts and Virginia, Nikki Haley's big bets.
This is one of the factors that explains why donors to Haley's campaign continue to pour money into her candidacy in the US there is no public funding for campaigns that must be financed entirely by donations.
“If she wins one or two states, it is possible that she will remain in the race for a few more weeks and therefore Trump will not be able to unite the Republican Party even if Haley cannot defeat him,” the politician said Analyst said g1 James Bosworth of US political risk consultancy Hxagon.
According to Bosworth, opinion polls among Republicans in states where elections have already taken place have shown increasing opposition to Donald Trump. “If these polls show the same thing on Super Tuesday, that would be a big problem for the Trump campaign.”he explained.
That doesn't mean Haley's job is easy: Despite the rejection, polls show Trump remains the favorite in the vast majority of states. These include California and Texas, the two most important on Super Tuesday.
His campaign expects to win at least 773 delegates at this point, thus guaranteeing him his nomination as the Republican candidate a week or two later, depending on the number of votes.
If this prediction is confirmed, there is expectation that Haley could announce her withdrawal from the election campaign.
- Alabama (50 delegates);
- Alaska (29 delegates);
- Arkansas (40 delegates);
- California (169 delegates);
- Colorado (37 delegates);
- Maine (20 delegates)
- Massachusetts (40 delegates);
- Minnesota (39 delegates);
- North Carolina (74 delegates);
- Oklahoma (43 delegates);
- Tennessee (58 delegates);
- Texas (161 delegates);
- Utah (40 delegates);
- Vermont (17 delegates);
- Virginia (48 delegates).
- Alabama (52 delegates)
- Arkansas (31 delegates)
- California (424 delegates)
- Colorado (72 delegates)
- Iowa: (40 delegates)
- Maine (24 delegates)
- Massachusetts (92 delegates)
- Minnesota (75 delegates)
- North Carolina (116 delegates)
- Oklahoma (36 delegates)
- Tennessee (63 delegates)
- Texas (244 delegates)
- Utah (30 delegates)
- Vermont (16 delegates)
- Virginia (99 delegates)
- Territory of American Samoa (6 delegates)
Each state may have different voting processes primaries or socalled primaries Caucus (watch the video below and understand how it works).
Here's how it works in US elections: Understand what the primaries and caucuses are