SUPPORTING Finnish Armed Forces to participate in NATO military exercises (Credit: FREDERIC PETRY)
Last week, the Finnish parliament moved to debate a national security report dealing with membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Although there is no mention of urgency, the document underscores this position. At the same time, Sweden’s Social Democratic Party, which governs the country and has opposed the proposal for years, began encouraging an internal debate on the issue. They are signs of a historic shift in these two countries, traditionally neutral and opposed to the union with the military alliance. Everything changed with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. There is still a long way to go: the application for membership still has to be formalized and there is a bureaucratic admissions process. But current geopolitics can speed up these processes.
IN STOCKHOLM Prime Ministers of Sweden and Finland Magdalena Andersson (left) and Sanna Marin (Credit:RONI REKOMAA)
The new reality has been heralded by the leaders of the two nations in recent days. Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson received her Finnish counterpart Sanna Marin in Stockholm to discuss the two countries’ security in the changing international environment. Considered “sister but not twin nations” (Finland, for example, shares a 1,300kilometer border with Russia, which Sweden does not), the two have a history of nonalignment. Over the past few decades, the two countries have maintained close ties with the Western military alliance, contributing with actions in Afghanistan, Iraq and the Balkans, while maintaining dialogue with the Russians until after the Crimea invasion of 2014. But they had never shown willingness to join NATO and even take part in military training, which is now being intensified since the invasion of Ukraine.
The vision of the two countries is now different. Analysis by researchers Colin Wall and Sean Monoghan, presented last week by the Center for International Studies and Strategy (CSIS) cited above, shows this transformation. For example, opinion polls show that in Finland in March, 62% of the population supported the country’s NATO membership. This percentage was no more than 21% in 2017. With that, the Finnish Parliament will debate this report in the coming weeks. Even with the eventual accession, the Finnish people remain opposed to the installation of nuclear weapons in the country.
In Sweden, the population was already cheaper. After the start of the war in Ukraine, the numbers rose from 31% to 59%. But party issues are fundamental in this country: the centreright party was already in favour, the extreme right decided to reassess its opposition, and the Social Democrats (before the Swedish government) started an intense internal debate, also against them after all, joining NATO (or not joining) could affect the general elections in September. Parliamentarians are still debating whether the application for membership requires a simple majority or twothirds of the votes in plenary.
The two countries are expected to finalize these debates and agree to the official and joint proposal in the two months before the NATO summit in Madrid in June. Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General of the organization, sees no obstacle to speeding up the process, not least because there are major concerns about the time to transition. In the meantime, there would be loopholes for Russian interference if the two countries still can’t get official “protection” as members. There are fears of Russian cyber and military attacks.
The action of the Nordic countries, as well as Germany’s decision to reequip its armed forces, marks the biggest geopolitical shift in Europe since the fall of the Berlin Wall. One of the reasons Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine was his bet on the demise of NATO (criticized by Emmanuel Macron and codled by Donald Trump), but the Russian military adventure strengthened the alliance. That is why Putin is reiterating the nuclear threat and calling for a stronger military presence in the Baltic Sea. Just as he has difficulties in the neighboring country, he is also in danger of losing this battle in Europe.
Participate: step by step
Nato Empowered by Putin (Source: Francois Lenoir)
There are several stages before a country becomes a member of NATO. First, the national decision must be awaited to communicate its aspirations to the military alliance (as Georgia and Ukraine have already done). NATO then sends an invitation to the country to apply. Next, the aspirant must ensure that they meet political, military, and economic criteria, in addition to agreeing to concepts of democracy and peace. Here’s the gist: Show you’re ready to show up with investments in NATO forces.
The country receives the action plan from the members (Bosnia and Herzegovina is at this stage) and then the accession protocol is sent to the respective legislative chambers. Only after this bureaucratic phase is the country invited to join NATO. But it has yet to go through ratification by the 30 member countries, and some might delay the process (as Hungary would have already done). In the case of North Macedonia, the last country accepted, it was 13 months in total.