Sweden’s NATO accession would have “a chilling effect in northern Europe,” says a report approved by the country’s social-democratic government and six of the eight parliamentary forces – excluding environmentalists and former communists. The text, which analyzes the new security situation that arose after Russia’s attack on Ukraine, summarizes that if “Sweden and Finland become members of the Atlantic Alliance, all Nordic and Baltic countries will be protected by collective defense guarantees”. Meanwhile, this Friday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed his opposition to the two Nordic countries joining NATO. Turkey, a member of the Atlantic Alliance since 1952, is the first partner to publicly oppose it. The accession of new countries requires the unanimity of all members of the organization.
According to the Swedish document, “Russia’s large-scale aggression against Ukraine is of a nature and scope not seen in Europe since World War II.” And although Sweden is already working with its “strategic partners” on defense and security, there are currently no “binding defense commitments”. In other words, “there is no guarantee that Sweden will receive assistance if it is the target of a serious threat or attack” since the collective defense clause (Article 5 of the founding text of the alliance) only protects member countries, the document points out was presented this Friday by Swedish Foreign and Defense Ministers Ann Linde and Peter Hultqvist.
The report highlights that there is not much scope to increase bilateral cooperation with NATO or within Europe because “it is clear that there is a lack of political will to create a collective defense in the European Union”. Furthermore, remaining outside NATO would force the country to bear defense spending in excess of 2% of gross domestic product (GDP), the minimum agreed by members of the military organization at the Wales Summit in 2014, although most Allies who have done this have not yet achieved this goal.
The Scandinavian country currently spends around 1.3% of its GDP on armaments. Hans Wallmark, foreign policy spokesman for the Moderate Party (Conservatives), the main opposition formation and a supporter of NATO accession for nearly two decades, told EL PAÍS over the phone that almost all factions had already come to the conclusion that that was the case necessary to increase military spending to 2% of GDP as soon as possible. “That would mean an investment of 11,000 to 12,000 million euros per year,” explains Wallmark.
“The main consequence of future NATO accession would be that Sweden would be part of its collective security,” Minister Linde told a press conference, expressing concern about the situation of vulnerability that the country could find itself in during the transitional period of final integration into NATO . According to Linde, Sweden could be exposed to cyber attacks or provocations such as violations of its airspace during this time.
Conservative Wallmark believes that in the months when ratification is extended (a process that requires parliamentary approval by the 30 members of the military bloc), the Scandinavian country will “need to engage in constant military maneuvers involving some of the allies participants show their clear support for accession”. Ground and sea trials (Baltops 2022) are planned for early June, in which the Swedish armed forces will take part along with soldiers from twenty NATO members.
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The presentation of the report comes a day after the President of Finland, Sauli Niinistö, and the Nordic country’s Prime Minister, Sanna Marin, issued a joint statement urging them to apply to join the Atlantic Alliance.
The Swedish Social Democratic Party, which alone leads a minority government, has called an extraordinary meeting of its leadership for Sunday, after which they will publish their position on joining the coalition. This week, the formation — winners of every general election in the Scandinavian country since 1914 — held virtual meetings for three days to decide whether to break with its traditional position against integration into the military bloc. The Social Democrats should finally position themselves for accession. Next Monday, the Swedish Parliament will hold a special debate on the new security report, which will be attended by Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson. After the fact, some Swedish media indicate that an extraordinary meeting of the government could be held to announce the sending of a formal application for membership. The Finnish President will pay an official visit to Stockholm next Tuesday and Wednesday.
opposition of Turkey
“We are following the situation regarding Sweden and Finland, but we don’t see it positively,” Erdogan told the media in Istanbul at the end of Friday prayers on the Nordic countries’ rapprochement with the alliance.
The Islamist president justified his resistance by saying that these countries “have become a host country for terrorists”, in particular armed organizations such as the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) or the Revolutionary Front of the People’s Liberation (DHKP-C). Traditionally, the Scandinavian countries have been a haven for numerous activists and politicians from Turkey – pro-Kurdish, leftist or Islamist – fleeing repression in their country, both for those who have chosen peaceful paths and for those who want them more or less close to armed groups are affected by the European Union’s anti-terrorist legislation and are still carrying out attacks on Turkish soil.
“The PKK, the DHKP-C have settled in Sweden, in the Netherlands [sic]. And there they grow and even take place in parliament,” criticized Erdogan. The Turkish government has demanded the extradition of many of these exiles, either to Sweden or to other countries through which they have traveled, as in the case of Turkish-Swedish journalist Hamza Yalçin, who was arrested in Spain in 2017 but was eventually extradited to Ankara from Council of Ministers rejected.
Turkey’s opposition could ruin Finland and Sweden’s bid for NATO, as consent from all partners is required to approve new revenue. So far, Turkey has taken a positive view of the organization’s expansions, since they mainly affected the last countries with which Ankara has excellent relations, such as Albania or North Macedonia. Still, Erdogan’s opposition to the Scandinavian candidacy could be a well-staged tantrum for concessions.
This already happened with the election of Denmark’s Anders Fogh Rasmussen as secretary of the Atlantic Alliance in 2009. At the time, the Turkish government – of which Erdogan was prime minister – was furious at the position taken by the Danish executive during Turkey’s crisis, with caricatures of Mohammed three years earlier. Finally, Turkey backed Rasmussen’s election in exchange for him apologizing to the Muslim world for the cartoon crisis. What the Erdogan government achieved in return was the closure of Roj TV, which was accused of PKK propaganda and broadcasting from Denmark, and the appointment of Turkish soldiers to two senior positions in the new NATO leadership.
In Washington, Karen Donfried, Undersecretary of State for European Affairs, told reporters Friday that the US government is working to clarify Turkey’s position. After pointing out that he was not aware that Turkey would oppose Finland and Sweden joining NATO, he added that during this weekend’s foreign ministers’ meeting in Berlin, which will be attended by Foreign Minister Antony Blinken, the United States will talk to Turkey and other countries to clarify this position, reports Miguel Jimenez.
Donfried has made it clear that Washington’s position on NATO is one of the “open doors” and that it will support Finland and Sweden’s accession if they formalize their application for membership.
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