The tug of war over Sweden's NATO membership application is finally over after 18 months. Hungary was the last NATO country to officially give its consent, which it finally did on Monday afternoon when an overwhelming majority of MPs in the country's parliament voted for Sweden to join the North Atlantic Defense Alliance.
In a striking change of tone from recent months, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban spoke in glowing terms about the Scandinavian country, calling Sweden an important partner and saying joining NATO would “strengthen Hungary's security.”
What Orban tried to gloss over with his warm, diplomatic phrases was the most embarrassing foreign policy episode of his 14-year rule: Hungary resisted Sweden's NATO membership for a year and a half, even if it is not really clear what Orban wanted to achieve with it.
The overwhelming majority of Hungarian lawmakers (96.9%) voted for Sweden's membership in NATO. Image: Marton Monus/dpa/picture Alliance
There are many indications that he simply misjudged the situation and stalled.
After Finland and Sweden applied to join NATO in spring 2022, Orban sided with Turkey and rejected their application.
A key reason for this may have been the close relations between him and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It is still not clear whether and what Hungary got in return.
Orban's vague demands
Like Erdogan, Orban made his support for Sweden and Finland conditional. However, unlike Erdogan, Orban's conditions were completely vague.
He and members of his Fidesz party have repeatedly accused Finland and Sweden of behaving disrespectfully towards Hungary and wrongly accusing the country of a democratic deficit or systematic corruption.
Budapest repeatedly stressed that mutual relations needed to be improved before Hungary would agree to membership of both countries. What exactly that meant was never spelled out.
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (left) traveled to Hungary just days before the Hungarian Parliament voted on his country's membership in NATO. Image: Denes Erdos/AP Photo/picture Alliance
It was also unclear why the parliament in Budapest ratified Finland's NATO application in March 2023 but not Sweden's. At least publicly, Finland had not made any of the apologies demanded by Hungary or in any way bowing to Orban. The same applies to Sweden.
A big arms deal or just a routine agreement?
Perhaps Orban was surprised by Erdogan's decision late last year to submit Sweden's proposal to the Turkish parliament for ratification, which it did last month. This would explain why Orban has conjured up an arms deal with Sweden in recent days to save face.
Hungary will buy four Gripen fighter jets from Sweden as part of the deal. While Orban praised the deal as a successful result of negotiations and very beneficial for Hungary, in reality it is simply a continuation of a long-standing cooperation in this area: Hungary has been using Gripen jets for almost 20 years and has worked closely with Sweden in this area .
Orban also recently tried to shift the blame for his failed foreign policy onto others. In his weekly radio interview last Friday, he said that he had finally managed to eliminate his party's opposition to Sweden's membership in NATO.
This is quite remarkable considering that the autocratic Orban decides on even the smallest issues and that the members of his party generally obediently wait for his instructions.
Damaged relations with the EU
The Sweden/NATO episode shows that Orban is damaging Hungary's interests, says Budapest political scientist Peter Kreko of the Political Capital Institute.
Hungary has concluded a deal to purchase four Gripen fighter jets from Sweden. Image: IMAGO/TT
“Hungary is increasingly isolated within the EU and NATO, for example due to Sweden's delayed ratification of NATO membership and the blocking of EU resolutions,” he told DW. “This has led to an ongoing crisis of trust between Hungary and its partners.”
Hungary's isolation is most evident when it comes to Ukraine. Orban is the only head of government in the EU who maintains friendly relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and rejects both military and financial EU aid to Ukraine.
Hungary in dispute with important allies
Orban has also railed against the United States under President Joe Biden in a manner more common for members of Europe's far right. He has openly said that too strong a US presence in Europe would be detrimental to the continent. He is the only prime minister in the EU to openly oppose Ukraine's accession to the union.
One of his reasons for doing so is that he says it would serve American interests in Europe. Relations between the United States and Hungary are worse today than they were during the last decade of communist rule in Hungary.
Orban has lost all of his former allies in the EU countries of central and southeastern Europe – from the Law and Justice party (PiS) in Poland to former Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov – as they are no longer in power.
In contrast to his ally Viktor Orban (left), Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico (right) has not yet openly spoken out against EU policies. Image: Ludovic Marin/AFP/Getty Images
The only one left is the recently re-elected Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico. Although Fico has clearly made pro-Russian and anti-Ukrainian statements, he has not yet openly opposed or blocked EU policies.
In Western Europe, potential allies such as Marine Le Pen, head of the right-wing extremist Rassemblement National, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni are also keeping their distance. Neither is interested in a formal alliance with Orban and his Fidesz party. Meloni is explicitly pro-Ukrainian and convinced Orban at the special EU summit earlier this month to give up his veto on a 50 billion euro aid package for Ukraine.
Hungary now only plays a “minor role”
Orban's foreign policy has not achieved much in recent years. The uprising of European sovereigntists against the “Brussels bureaucracy” that he hoped for has so far failed to materialize.
Nor would the investments he had hoped for from countries such as Russia, Central Asia, India and China flow to Hungary due to his policy of opening up to the east, both in terms of the volume and – in the case of Chinese investments – the number of jobs created.
Peter Kreko says that Hungary no longer has practically any influence on European politics. “It is important to see that Hungarian obstructionism does not shape the Euro-Atlantic answers to major political questions, but at best delays them or waters them down a little. When it comes to important decisions,” says Kreko, “Hungary is no longer a problem.” Main actor; it only plays a minor role.
This article was originally published in German.