Sao Paulo
The Swedish government has made the deployment of Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine’s war effort against Russia conditional on Ukraine joining NATO, the Western military alliance.
Announcing the 14th aid package for Kiev this Friday (6), Pal Jonson (Minister of Defense) explained that he could only consider sending the aircraft if his country became the 32nd member of the club he leads and thus its own defense weakens the USA.
In this case, aircraft from other nations could complement the work of patrols in the disputed skies of Northern Europe on the same Friday, a Russian MiG31 fighter intercepted an American P8A spy plane approaching Moscow airspace near Norway.
The Swedes gave up their 200year neutrality for NATO membership last year when they applied to join Finland alongside Finland. The neighborhood process moved more quickly, was approved by the parliaments of the club’s then 30 members and was completed in April of this year.
However, due to political opposition from Turkey and Hungary, Stockholm remained in line. In the first, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is negotiating US F16 fighter jets and the extradition of rival dissidents in his government who are in the Nordic country. Apparently he will achieve everything, but his country’s parliament returned from recess this month and has not yet analyzed the case.
Hungarians are increasingly critical of Western rapprochement with Ukraine, a country with which Budapest has disputes over grain imports. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has already stated that Sweden’s entry is not a priority and unanimity among NATO members is a prerequisite for joining the group.
Last month, speculation about sending fighter jets gained momentum, with people familiar with the matter saying 18 planes were being sent to Kiev. The Swedes have 96 Gripen of the C/D generation, ahead of the E/F, which was purchased and is being integrated into the Brazilian Air Force fleet.
With a very high availability rate of 70%, this means that Stockholm can have 67 aircraft in the air at the same time. The withdrawal of 18 soldiers from this contingent poses a risk to the country’s security, military observers say.
Therefore, it is possible to read Jonson’s speech as merely political pressure on the Turks and Hungarians, as it is not certain which Gripen will be sent and how soon. NATO has promised to deliver F16 fighter jets, which are being adopted by several of its members. However, this is not expected to happen before next year, not least because of Western fears that it could trigger a dangerous escalation by Russia.
The problem is so serious that the Swedes have already announced an operational union of their air fleets with the other three Nordic countries (Finland, Norway and Denmark). The idea is that everyone acts by defending each other, but technically that takes time. In total, the countries had 247 combat aircraft in 2022, with many fleets being renewed: the Finns, for example, will swap their F18s for F35s.
In theory, if Sweden were to join NATO, there would be a much larger group of aircraft available, similar to the skies over the Baltic states, patrolled by fighter jets from several countries in the alliance, since these countries do not have their own air force.
There is also the industrial problem of Saab, the fighter aircraft manufacturer. The Swedes ordered 60 examples of the new Gripen E to replace the C/D, a number that is expected to increase given the new security landscape following the Russian invasion in 2022. So far they have only received two of the most modern models and the company cannot affect its contract with Brazil, its largest external customer with 36 orders.
Jonson announced the allocation of artillery ammunition worth R$1.1 billion to the Ukrainians, who are facing difficulties in their counteroffensive against the Russians. This Friday, a day after the attack attributed to Moscow in the Kharkiv region that killed 52 people, a 10yearold child and his grandmother were killed when rockets hit the regional capital of the same name.