The Druze dominate in Suayda. The religious minority has so far been more on Assad’s side. “They were largely loyal to the regime because of fear of jihadists,” Syria expert Thomas Schmidinger from the University of Vienna told ORF.at. Assad presented himself as a secular protector of religious minorities who had been threatened by Islamic militias such as the Islamic State (IS). According to the political scientist, the fear is no longer as serious and IS has become significantly weaker.
However, economic difficulties became greater. The last two years in particular have seen a drastic deterioration in the supply situation. Schmidinger: “The middle class no longer exists, the reserves have run out.” Only a few who were closely linked to the regime benefited from the war economy. Now the frustration with living conditions has been released to the outside world.
AP/Suwayda24 The Druze population in Suwayda has been protesting against the regime for four weeks
End of fuel subsidies as a trigger
The trigger for the protests was the abolition of government fuel subsidies. Gasoline prices have tripled. Taxi and bus drivers stopped working, stores remained closed and food prices rose drastically in a very short space of time. Inflation is around 100% in the fourth year.
According to the UN, 90 percent of the population, around twelve million people, live below the poverty line and have difficulty purchasing food. The currency is extremely devalued. At the start of the Syrian civil war, one US dollar traded for around 50 Syrian pounds, but now it costs 15,000 pounds.
Meanwhile, calls for the overthrow of Assad and his regime have become louder. The ruler and his system are blamed for the difficult economic situation. Assad’s followers control the black market and many are involved in the lucrative drug business. The Captagon stimulant is now one of Syria’s most important sources of foreign currency. Oil production has largely collapsed.
Schmidinger: The regime needs new tactics
“Protests will become a problem for the regime when the old tactic of keeping minorities in line through fear of Islamists no longer works,” explained the political scientist. “If fear is no longer enough for loyalty, the regime has a problem.” Assad will have to think about different tactics and concessions for certain groups, such as a minimum level of federalization of Syria.
Several thousand people have taken to the streets in Suwaida since mid-August. A rally with an estimated 3,500 to 4,000 participants took place in the provincial capital on Friday. For Schmidinger, it is not surprising that the protests are particularly visible here: “There are intact social structures here, a society that was not completely destroyed because it was quieter than elsewhere.” This is necessary for civil protests.
AP Assad has so far secured the loyalty of religious minorities through his fear of Islamists
Images of Assad destroyed
In the city of Suwayda, which has a population of 100,000, roads were blocked, images of Assad and a statue of Assad’s father, Hafez, were destroyed and the office of the ruling Baath party was closed. The demonstrations paint a picture of Assad’s weakness in southern Syria. “We will not allow any attacks on demonstrations,” said a spokesman for a local Druze militia.
From the city of Suwaida, protests spread across the province and people also took to the streets in isolated cases in government-controlled Daraa, where protests began in 2011, as well as in the coastal regions and suburbs of Damascus. by the Alawites. Here, unlike Suwaida, security forces responded with arrests but refrained from a more brutal reaction.
Alawite protest “greatest danger to the regime”
The coastal regions in particular, where Alawites live, can be dangerous for Assad because his regime depends on his followers. The secret service and military are mainly made up of Alawites. Schmidinger sees the Alawite protests as a “greater danger to the regime.” However, it is difficult to assess how widespread dissatisfaction among Alawites is.
In an interview with “The New Arab”, political scientist Steven Heydemann, specializing in Syria, also classified the emerging resistance in the regime’s strongholds as “significant”. “Support for the regime in regime-controlled areas, including loyalist coastal strongholds, has declined.”
The main reason for this is the regime’s lack of reaction to the economic crisis. Heydemann sees the regime’s weakness as “a product of the economic crisis and its failure to curb the predatory and corrupt practices that are deepening the crisis and fueling the anger of ordinary Syrians.”
Uncertain outcome of the protests
The regime currently hopes to let the protests end. But Assad will not stay put forever. Political power considerations also played a role, says Schmidinger. Political scientist Heydemann expects a “divide and rule strategy” for Suwaida among religious leaders involved in the protests.
One of them has already reaffirmed his loyalty to the regime. Schmidinger argued that the Syrian ruler cannot alienate too many parts of society at the same time: “He will probably try to calm the Druze leaders again.”
Conflict in the north plays in Assad’s favor
As weak as the regime currently appears in the south, current developments in Kurdish-dominated northeastern Syria are working in Assad’s favor. In recent weeks, violent clashes between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), led by Kurdish militias, and fighters from local Arab militias have made headlines, leaving dozens dead.
Graphics: APA/ORF; Source: ISW/ZEIT
Schmidinger emphasized that these are not fights between Kurds and Arabs, but rather internal conflicts within the SDF. The trigger was the arrest of the chairman of the military council of Deir al-Sor, Ahmed Chubeil, also known as Rashid Abu Chaula, and other tribesmen in late August. Syria’s largest oil reserves are located in Deir al-Sor.
Questionable loyalties
Chubeil is accused of having contacts with the Syrian government and its Iranian and Russian allies, as well as involvement in criminal activities such as drug trafficking. The FDS commander himself was a former member of IS and later switched to the FDS and therefore to the other side. In recent years, the SDF has been supported by the US with hundreds of US soldiers – with the aim of fighting IS in this region.
Areas were conquered that the SDF managed to keep under control with defectors from Arab tribes, explained Schmidinger: “Arab tribal leaders switched their loyalties between the regime, IS and the SDF – like Chaula.” Areas already affected by constant drone attacks by Turkey have now become the scene of new conflicts with the SDF fighting against Arab militias.
IMAGO/Rami Alsayed After the arrest of an FDS commander, there were clashes between FDS fighters and Arab militias
US tries to de-escalate
According to Schmidinger, the regime is trying to use this destabilization for its own interests, as are the Syrian government’s allies – Iran and Russia. According to observers, Assad regime troops can do little against US-backed SDF forces. Furthermore, the regime lacks the financial resources to have the Arab tribes on its side.
The US tried to de-escalate. The worst fighting appears to be over, but there is great concern about a new division between the FDS and its allies, despite FDS protests to the contrary. The conflict is also being fueled by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who recently portrayed the Kurdish-led administration in northeastern Syria as a “threat to national security.” According to a report by the news platform Al-Monitor, Syrian Kurdish leaders themselves blamed “external forces”, namely Iran, Turkey and Russia, for the fighting. Schmidinger: “The conflict is not over yet.”