Are we at the beginning of a nuclear escalation in Ukraine? Probably not, but Vladimir Putin would have you believe.
The British decision to send depleted uranium shells to Ukraine worries the Russian army. Developed by the United States, among others, in the 1960s to penetrate assault tanks, these shells can emit radioactive dust.
Although the level of radioactive contamination of these shells is very low and they cannot be used either to make atomic bombs or to build radioactive bombs, they remain controversial. They could pollute the environment and possibly cause cancer in those who are exposed to their dust for a long time.
These bowls are very effective. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the Russians have been losing about 150 tanks every month. The only factory producing them in Russia manages to release only 20 tanks per month. That is why the Russian army is sending more and more obsolete tanks into battle. It is clear that depleted uranium shells will accelerate the destruction of Russian tanks.
In response to the dispatch of these shells, Putin has just announced the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear missiles in Belarus.
Unlike ballistic nuclear missiles, which can wipe out large areas, tactical nuclear missiles are designed for use on the battlefield. Her power remains immense. It varies between 1 and 100 kilotons. For comparison, the bomb that fell on Hiroshima weighed 15 kilotons.
escalation
It is easy to grasp the gap between the use of depleted uranium shells and threats to use nuclear bombs, even tactical ones.
Putin’s reaction represents an escalation of immense proportions compared to the British escalation. It is not in the same category either.
So what is Putin looking for with this escalation? His goals are undoubtedly diverse.
He tries to blame the United States and its allies for the nuclear escalation he initiated. He is consolidating his hold on Belarus, which is becoming a nuclear ally of Russia. It obliges NATO to strengthen its nuclear forces. He’s finally showing his populace that he’s willing to go to the end of the war.
Break with China
However, the Chinese leadership warned Putin, as the peace plan they presented shows: Beijing condemns the use of nuclear weapons. If Putin crosses this red line, he risks losing China’s economic and diplomatic support.
At the end of the analysis, Putin’s new deployment is more propagandistic than anything else. However, one element is annoying. The invasion of Ukraine was irrational, but Putin launched it anyway. The use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine would be just as irrational. But nobody can guarantee that Putin wouldn’t do it. He would then lose not only the war but also power.
