PHILADELPHIA – By completing both the National League Wild Card Series and the NL Division Series early, the Phillies powered their way into the NL Championship Series using only their top three starters: Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Ranger Suárez.
However, this will not be the case in the NLCS.
For the first time this postseason, the Phils will have to use a fourth starter, although that won’t happen until Game 4 on Friday at Chase Field.
At this point, it will have been 20 days since Taijuan Walker or Cristopher Sánchez last pitched in a game. Walker’s last start came in the first game of a doubleheader against the Mets on September 30. Sánchez, who pitched one inning of relief in Game 2 later that evening, has not started a game since September 24.
While manager Rob Thomson won’t name a starter for Game 4 until after Game 3 on Thursday, both Walker and Sánchez pitched two innings in a simulation game Sunday afternoon at Citizens Bank Park.
“I think we have two really good options,” Thomson said. “They both threw BP today. They were both a little rusty, but that’s why we’re doing it.”
Walker, who signed a four-year, $72 million contract last offseason, went 15-6 with a 4.38 ERA in 31 regular-season starts. The Phils posted a 21-10 record in those games. Sánchez finished 3-5 with a 3.48 ERA in his 18 starts (he also made one relief appearance). The club achieved a record of 8-10 in its starts.
“It’s just a matter of how we use the bullpen over the next few days and also in Game 3,” Thomson said.
So while we wait for the decision, let’s take a closer look at how Philadelphia’s two options perform in some key areas.
Matchup against D-Backs
The Phillies will open the series with two right-handers in Wheeler and Nola before turning to left-hander Suárez in Game 3. Then they have the choice between the right-handed Walker or the left-handed Sánchez.
The D-backs performed slightly better against right-handed pitchers this season. They had an OPS of .737 (14th in MLB) and a slugging percentage of .414 (15th) against right-handers. Against southpaws, Arizona posted an OPS of .711 (21st in MLB) and a slugging percentage of .394 (26th).
As for the D-backs’ biggest threat in the lineup, left-hander Corbin Carroll did the most damage against right-handers this season. Arizona’s rookie sensation had an OPS of .921 against righties, compared to just .721 against lefties.
However, switch-hitting Ketel Marte’s career OPS against lefties is 111 points higher (.874 compared to .763 against righties). As for the club’s two right-handers at the top of the rankings, Tommy Pham performs slightly better against lefties (.834 versus .768), while Christian Walker has relatively even splits (.803 and .787).
While Walker also has similar platoon splits against lefties (.714 OPS) and righties (.701), Sánchez has held lefties to a .557 OPS in his career, compared to a .771 mark against righties.
Start vs. relieve
Given the splits above, another option would be to use Sánchez as the opener for the first inning – and Carroll’s first plate appearance – before handing it off to Walker. That would also get around Walker’s biggest obstacle this season: He had a 7.04 ERA in the first inning (compared to a 3.80 ERA the rest of the game).
However, Walker has only completed three true relief appearances in his career – and all of them came in 2014. Sánchez, for his part, pitched primarily out of the bullpen over the last two seasons with the Phillies.
Therefore, Sánchez is more likely to be used as a replacement in one of the first three games in the event of a shortened start or a lengthy extra-inning game. He would also be better suited to follow Walker – rather than the other way around – if Thomson took a piggyback approach, requiring only two or three innings from each player.
“Recently used” form.
Considering it’s been almost three weeks since their last pitch, both Walker and Sánchez have had some issues down the stretch.
Walker had a 5.93 ERA in five starts in September. He had just 19 strikeouts while striking out 12 over 30 1/3 innings in those outings.
As for Sánchez, he posted a 4.15 ERA over 52 innings in August and September after posting a 2.30 ERA over 43 innings in eight starts in June and July.
Off-season experience
However, neither player has a significant track record when it comes to pitching in the postseason
Walker has had a career start. He took the mound in Game 1 of the 2017 NLDS – strangely for the D-backs – against the Dodgers. He lasted just one inning, allowing four runs on four hits and two walks while recording three strikeouts.
Sánchez, who was not on the active roster during the Phillies’ postseason run last year, has never appeared in a playoff game.