Polls give the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party a narrow victory. However, the fate of the island is not really at stake in these parliamentary and presidential elections. If the Democratic Progressive Party wins, it's a safe bet that China will maintain the status quo with the island. However, if one of the other two major opposition parties wins, there is a risk that the integration process between China and Taiwan will accelerate. But Taiwan's future lies in the United States. The question is to what extent American leaders will have the will and resources to protect Taiwan. In other words, with Donald Trump in power, Taiwan could serve as lunch for the Chinese dragon.
• Also read: The Chinese military says it will “crush” any attempt at Taiwan independence.
1) What are the main parties' programs on China?
The Democratic Progressive Party, led by Lai Ching-te, does not dare flaunt its plan for a formal declaration of independence for the island. Their main concern is to protect Taiwan from excessive influence from Beijing and to strengthen the island's military defense. The Kuomintang, led by Hou Yu-ih, instead sought to strengthen relations with Beijing. During its last term in government between 2008 and 2016, this party expanded its agreements with mainland China. The third major opposition party, the Taiwan People's Party, chaired by Ko Wen-je, has developed an ambiguous position towards Beijing. For him, economic problems, especially among young people, are more important than the question of relations with Beijing. This party defends Taiwan's democratic model but appears willing to make many adjustments to mainland China.
2) Why is China so interested in regaining Taiwan?
Several reasons explain China's desire to regain Taiwan. First, the island is the only territory that Mao Zedong's troops failed to conquer in 1949. Second, the island serves as a forward base for the United States. After all, Taiwan is a prosperous democracy and therefore a bad example for the Chinese Communist Party, which is becoming increasingly totalitarian and repeating to anyone who will listen that democracy does not fit Chinese culture and that it is impractical in China.
- Listen to international political expert Loïc Tassé on Benoit Dutrizac's show QUB :
3) Why is the United States defending Taiwan?
The United States defends Taiwan's democratic system. Above all, Taiwan is militarily irreplaceable for them, especially since Beijing militarized the China Sea by establishing several military bases there.
4) Why might the United States abandon Taiwan?
In the short term, Donald Trump, who is an isolationist, could give up Taiwan in exchange for trade concessions from China to the United States. In the long term, given the relative weakening of American military power, the time is approaching when the United States can no longer defend Taiwan militarily.
5) What are the best arguments from both sides?
Opponents of Taiwan independence believe that sooner or later the island will return to mainland China. In their opinion, it is therefore better to negotiate the terms of this return while the island is still prosperous and militarily strong. Waiting could only make the island's subjugation more difficult. Conversely, those seeking independence point out that communist China has failed to honor its treaty over Hong Kong. The latter provided for respect for the democratic process and independence in internal affairs. Furthermore, they assume that an invasion of Taiwan would cost Beijing too much.